2 Changes Donald Trump Wants to Make to Social Security: Will 2026 Be the Year They Become a Reality?

President-elect Donald Trump has promised to shake things up in Washington in his second term. Mass deportations, high tariffs on all imports, expanded tax cuts and greater deregulation are just some of the commitments he has made as a presidential candidate.

But how might Trump’s policies affect the 54 million Americans who receive Social Security retirement benefits? Here are the two main changes he wants to make to Social Security.

Image Source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead.

1. Eliminate federal taxes on Social Security benefits

Currently, about 40% of individuals pay federal income taxes on their Social Security benefits. Whether recipients belong to this group or not depends on how much money they earn.

Up to 85% of Social Security benefits may be subject to federal income tax based on each individual’s total income (adjusted gross income plus nontaxable interest plus half of their Social Security benefits) and the type of federal tax return.

Trump wants to abolish these taxes for seniors. He is not the first politician to propose eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits. One of the most recent attempts to accomplish this – the “You Earned It, You Keep It Act” – was introduced in Congress earlier this year.

For much of the history of the Social Security program, benefits were not taxed at the federal level. That changed in 1984, when a bipartisan plan to financially strengthen Social Security was implemented.

2. Strengthen Social Security finances through more oil and gas drilling

During the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Trump criticized Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposal to raise the full retirement age to maintain the solvency of the Social Security program. Trump told Fox News Host Sean Hannity at a town hall: “You don’t have to touch Social Security.”

Instead, Trump suggested that the US has “liquid gold” (oil and gas) that could be used to supplement program funding. He said the country could also pay off its national debt through increased oil and gas production.

Will these changes occur in 2026?

It’s unrealistic to expect major changes to Social Security in Trump’s first year in office. But could they happen in 2026? That could also be far-fetched.

The biggest challenge to eliminating the federal income tax on Social Security benefits is that the program’s trust funds would be depleted sooner than expected. It is highly unlikely that Trump will get the 60 votes in the Senate needed to bypass an almost certain filibuster.

Could Republicans include language eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits in a budget proposal that cannot be falsified? No. The Byrd Rule prevents Social Security from changing through the budget reconciliation process.

Perhaps Senate Republicans could decide to eliminate the filibuster altogether. However, this also seems unlikely given that new Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Republican senators have committed to maintaining the filibuster, even if it means parts of Trump’s agenda are not passed.

Trump could likely boost U.S. oil and gas production gradually, perhaps even before 2026. For example, he could make more federal land available for drilling and remove some regulatory barriers to the industry.

But domestic production is already at an all-time high. The industry could cut production on its own if prices fall too much due to oversupply.

More importantly, increased drilling may not help Social Security much. The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget analyzed Trump’s idea and found that using current oil and gas leasing revenues to fund Social Security would offset less than 4% of the projected deficit. It was also noted that even then, Social Security’s financial problems would not be resolved all Federal land was made available for drilling.

Presidents don’t always get what they want. Given political and economic realities, it’s likely that Trump won’t get what he wants on Social Security until 2026 – and perhaps not until the end of his second term in January 2029.