30,000 Ukrainian long-range drones are to attack Russian strategic targets

Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s cities is in full swing. At night, 100 or more Shahed-type kamikaze drones attack apartment blocks and energy infrastructure, causing power outages and raising concerns about the coming winter.

At the same time, Ukraine has already increased its strategic drone strikes, according to Russian sources. And in 2025, President Zelensky told Reuters this week he plans to build 30,000 deep-strike weapons next year.

Russian reports

While the most dramatic evidence of Ukrainian drone strikes comes from images of burning oil refineries and air bases helpfully posted on Russian social media, the most detailed reports come from the Russian Defense Ministry’s official Telegram account. It lists all claims that a Ukrainian drone was shot down, when and where it happened.

Obviously this source should be treated with some caution. In particular, the Russian Ministry of Defense claims that in every attack, every single incoming drone will be shot down. Do their numbers only take into account drones actually shot down or are they inflated to include each drone?

In contrast, the Ukrainian Air Force provides more detail, reporting nightly totals of how many they shot down, how many were shot down by electronic warfare, and how many were redirected to Russia or Belarus through navigation spoofing.

The Russian Defense Ministry’s only motive for honesty would be to try to reassure the public. In places where locals have seen and filmed explosions, they can tell them that all the attackers were killed. They could underestimate the size of the attack to minimize Ukrainian capabilities, or overestimate it to make their own defenders look more formidable. And if an attack isn’t observed, say at a remote air base, they don’t have to admit it at all.

However, the Russian numbers suggest rising and falling numbers, from just one or two drones in one night to a massive rush of 141 drones reportedly shot down on November 20th^Th.

The total for the month of November includes, according to the Russian Defense Ministry 908 Ukrainian drones shot down.

This is comparable to a figure of “over 2,500 Shahed drones According to President Zelensky, this attack was launched in November in Ukraine. It’s worth noting that many of these were actually decoys, smaller Russian-made drones with radar reflectors designed to distract and weaken air defenses. But it is just as likely that some of the Ukrainian drones were also decoys.

Additionally, we don’t know how many of these long-range drones made it through on either side.

The exact November figures for Ukraine, consolidated in detail by the tireless ShahedTracker, are: Of 2,444 known Shahed-type drones, 1,317 were intercepted (54%), 990 shot down by electronic warfare (40%), 50 “flown away” ( 2%), leaving 87 who probably achieved their goals (4%). Of course, these claims cannot be verified. But we know about Ukraine’s nationwide microphone system that tracks the slow-moving drones as they approach, and the hundreds of mobile fire teams equipped with submachine guns and heavy machine guns that are deployed to intercept positions, and there are many Recordings of successes.

On the Russian side, defense measures are likely to be significantly less successful due to the need to protect a much larger area. There are several videos of soldiers ineffectively firing small arms at incoming drones, and even more of them simply watching as one drone after another passes overhead and crashes into a target. Russia does not yet appear to have the necessary infrastructure and organization to deal with the new threat.

Strengthen the attack

Ukraine has produced a wide variety of long-range attack drones. HI Sutton from CovertShore has documented 23 different types, but this may not be exhaustive. The drones are manufactured by various groups and range from the primitive but effective “drainpipe drone” with a fuselage made of plastic pipes, to converted light aircraft, to sophisticated models such as the Ukrainian Military Intelligence’s Lyuty (“Fierce”). There are also models from abroad, including the Dominator from the USA, which is provided as part of the Phoenix Ghost program.

However, most of these are seen in small numbers and are carried out by volunteers or fundraising-supported efforts. The Ukrainian government has only recently become involved in the production of Shahed equivalents.

When President Zelensky met Chancellor Scholz this week, he unveiled another long-range drone that looks like a virtual clone of the Shahed. The question is whether Ukraine can reach this number in the quantities it needs, or whether the 30,000 planned for next year will remain an unfulfilled goal.

A year ago, drone maker Terminal Autonomy was poised to produce 500 a month of its disposable AQ-400 Scythe attack drones, a type designed for easy mass production using techniques similar to low-rise furniture. Apparently that didn’t happen, and the various other manufacturers looking to increase production couldn’t get the government money they needed. While Ukraine launched more drones than Russia in July (520 versus 426), Russian production appears to have increased faster.

Given that there is now a demand at the highest levels for the largest possible number of attack drones, Ukraine could see a resurgence.

It’s not just about quantity. Former Ukrainian defense chief Zaluzhnyi offered his thoughts on the new technology in a Telegram post last month, describing a type of warfare in which the goal is to disable strategic military and civilian infrastructure across an entire country. In this situation, drones with effective AI to prevent electronic warfare and precisely locate and destroy targets are more valuable than large numbers of drones shot down or diverted.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov told Reuters that launch techniques and communication with drones were also crucial: “Russia has improved the monitoring of drone launches (from Ukraine), can react quickly and specifically target launch sites. These nuances require constant changes in the startup method and connectivity“said Fedorov.

This suggests that Ukrainian drones are not programmed with target coordinates, but remain under the operator’s control after launch and can be redirected, or have cameras or other sensors that allow the operator to scan targets before attacking. This is far more effective than selecting targets from satellite imagery.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov announced this week that the Palyanytsya drone missile had entered mass production with support from the Defense Ministry. First unveiled in August, Palyanytsya is described as a “rocket-powered drone” capable of attacking targets about 400 miles away at high speed. This will significantly complicate the challenge for Russian defenders equipped to deal with slow-moving drones. However, it is not clear whether the cost and complexity of this type of weapon justify the expense.

Strategic drone warfare

It took some time for both sides to reach the point where they could produce low-cost, long-range mass attack systems. Both Russia and Ukraine appear committed to this new form of warfare. Ballistic missiles may have a better chance of getting through, but they cannot provide the mass that drones can achieve to saturate defenses, or they cannot be produced in sufficient numbers to down an opponent for an extended period of time.

On some days Ukraine already launches more drones than Russia. The government procurement process for military equipment works intermittently, is characterized by inefficiency and bureaucracy, and still suffers from corruption. If these problems can be overcome and the high-performance designs are produced in large quantities, Russia will suffer a setback that will make all the damage so far appear minor.