Romania’s far-right party expects to win the parliamentary elections

By Luiza Ilie

BUCHAREST (Reuters) – Romanians will take part in a parliamentary election on Sunday in which the far right is expected to benefit from uncertainty over whether the surprise result of a presidential election will stand.

Sunday’s vote is the second of three in a row for a new parliament and president, after an independent far-right candidate emerged from relative obscurity to become the frontrunner in the first round of presidential elections on November 24.

His unexpected victory led to support for ultra-nationalist, far-right parties, some of which had openly pro-Russian sympathies, which could upend Romania’s pro-Western orientation and undermine support for Ukraine, political analysts said.

After a campaign dominated by voters’ concerns about budget problems and the cost of living, the election pits far-right candidates against mainstream pro-European parties that have angered voters with infighting and allegations of corruption.

Far-right parties have also used Romania’s commitment to Ukraine to stoke fears that the war could spread across the border if the country ends its support, as well as resentment over alleged preferential treatment of refugees from Ukraine.

“I’m not voting for a party that has been in parliament before, it’s an exclusion vote,” said Marian Gheorghe, a taxi driver. “I have kids and I’m tired of telling them ‘no’ because I can’t afford what they need.”

“Where is the justice, why are there fewer Romanian children than Ukrainian children?”

Romania has been a strong ally of neighboring Ukraine, helping to export millions of tons of grain, training its fighter pilots and donating a Patriot air defense battery.

Data showed that about 3.1 million Romanians, or 17.6% of registered voters, had voted by 1000 GMT. Voting closes at 19:00 GMT, with exit polls following immediately. Preliminary results are expected later this evening.

DISTRUST

Just days after far-right politician Calin Georgescu won the most votes in the first round of presidential elections, an opinion poll this week showed the far-right Alliance to Unify Romanians (AUR) with a narrow lead over the ruling Social Democrats.

Two right-wing extremist splinter parties are also entering parliament, which could potentially give the ultranationalists a third of the seats in the legislature.

Georgescu’s unexpected success last Sunday sparked concerns about interference in the election campaign, triggered a recount of votes and led to a losing candidate asking the country’s top court for a repeat of the first round of voting.

The confusion means the general election is taking place and voters are uncertain whether the results of the first round of presidential voting will stand.

They also don’t know whether the runoff election scheduled for December 8 between Georgescu and the moderate Elena Lasconi will take place or take place at a later date, with the court expected to decide on Monday.

“No decision made at this crucial time should restrict Romanians’ right to freely vote or further threaten the credibility of the electoral process,” U.S. Ambassador Kathleen Kavalec said in a statement on Saturday.

Georgescu, 62, criticized NATO and Romania’s stance towards Ukraine and said Bucharest should deal with Russia and not challenge it. Opinion polls had not predicted his success.

Political analysts say far-right parties are likely to benefit from the uncertainty.

“The net beneficiaries … are Georgescu and the anti-establishment camp, which now receives additional ammunition: how state institutions work, how discretionary they are,” said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babeș-Bolyai University.

An AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted November 26-28 showed the far-right AUR at 22.4%, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu’s Social Democrats at 21.4%, down 10 percentage points in two weeks, and Lasconi’s Union “Save Romania” at 17.5%. The recount was not taken into account in the poll.

The next parliament and government face the difficult task of reducing the EU’s highest budget deficit at 8% of economic output and maintaining defense spending targets as Donald Trump’s US presidency begins.

Romania has the largest proportion of the population at risk of poverty in the EU and large parts of the country need investment.

“We have an unevenly developed country and the greatest frustrations are concentrated in these peripheral areas, which fall prey to candidates who know how to deal with them,” said anthropologist Bogdan Iancu.

(Reporting by Luiza Ilie; Editing by Justyna Pawlak, Timothy Heritage and Bernadette Baum)