Alabama erases Auburn’s Iron Bowl disappointment: Is the door to the playoffs still open?

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – No. 13 Alabama bounced back from last week’s disappointment with a 28-14 victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, keeping the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes alive.

Alabama (9-3, 5-3 SEC) suffered a major playoff setback last week when it suffered its third loss of Kalen DeBoer’s first season against Oklahoma, but the Crimson Tide bounced back in the regular-season finale a rivalry win to stay in the playoff bubble mix. In doing so, they guaranteed a losing record for Auburn (5-7, 2-6), which is unlikely to miss a bowl game in Hugh Freeze’s second season after finishing 6-7 with a bowl loss last year.

Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe scored two touchdowns in the first half, while the Crimson Tide held Auburn from building a lead with two field goals in the second quarter. Alabama then took a commanding 28-6 lead in the third quarter with touchdown runs by Justice Haynes and Milroe, and any threat of an Auburn comeback ended when running back Jarquez Hunter threw an interception on a trick play on Alabama after an early fumble by Milroe Territory threw in the fourth quarter.

The Athletic’s projection model gave Alabama a 16 percent chance of making the playoffs before kickoff. The Crimson Tide got some help to bolster their case on Saturday, but was it enough? By late Saturday evening they rose to 30 percent, still outside the forecast range.

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Here are our immediate takeaways:

Does Alabama still have a playoff case?

The Crimson Tide were ranked No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings entering Tuesday and needed to win the Iron Bowl and get help to sneak into the field. Some of the help needed came before kickoff, as South Carolina upset No. 12 Clemson; Alabama is coming off a head-to-head victory over the Gamecocks that will likely give the Tide the lead in the standings. There were a few cheers at Bryant-Denny Stadium when the video board showed that No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 6 Miami — two teams ahead of Alabama in the rankings — were both tied in the second half. Although Notre Dame picked up a win at USC, Miami suffered its second loss of the season and dealt a major blow to its poor record by knocking the Hurricanes out of the ACC title race.

The Crimson Tide’s case consists of wins over No. 7 Georgia, No. 15 South Carolina and No. 21 Missouri, measured against three losses: against Vanderbilt with five losses, in the playoff portion of Tennessee and the confusing 24-3 loss last week in Oklahoma.

“Everyone knows our schedule,” DeBoer said. “When you talk about the schedule, what it looks like and having to come back every week, the only conference that has to do that is ours. I would say that.”

Did Alabama’s performance on Saturday help its case? Perhaps. Thanks to a strong defense, the guests were able to cope with three ball losses in the first half. After Milroe’s third touchdown, the Tide were 22 points ahead of their arch-rival in the third quarter. On the other hand, Milroe lost three turnovers for the second straight game, and Alabama let Auburn threaten, which made things interesting in the fourth quarter.

Losses have consequences. Alabama making the playoffs is not a given, nor should it be. But his performance on Saturday and results elsewhere kept his hopes alive. — Matt Baker, national college football writer

JALEN MILROE’S THIRD RUSHING TOUCHDOWN OF THE GAME 🔥

BAMA CRUISES IN TUSCALOOSA 😤 pic.twitter.com/UsrJ026uB1

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 30, 2024

What the Iron Bowl victory means for Kalen DeBoer

DeBoer’s ninth win is actually the most by a first-year Alabama coach (Frank Thomas, 1931). On a team level, this game wasn’t a showpiece to boost Alabama’s playoff life, but it was an important game in the history of DeBoer’s first season.

Auburn entered the game with a ton of confidence thanks to a combination of its own win over Texas A&M and Alabama’s loss to Oklahoma last weekend, which was also evident in the Tigers’ trash talk earlier this week. Saturday could have been a moment for Auburn to gain some momentum in this rivalry under Freeze amid a disappointing season at Alabama; Instead, DeBoer led the Tide to a convincing victory, starting his Iron Bowl career 1-0.

Aside from turnover margin, Alabama won nearly every major statistical category on Saturday: total yards, third-down conversions, time of possession, red zone offense and more. It wasn’t a completely dominant performance from Alabama – more of a tale of two halves where it was better in the second half – but a double-digit win over Auburn to close the regular season is an ideal outcome. And with signing day just days away, Alabama regained some momentum and began a period of hoping and waiting for more playoff chaos. – Kennington Smith III, Alabama beat writer

Auburn still can’t get out of the way

The Tigers had a close but not entirely successful season, with heartbreaking losses by 10 points or less to Cal, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Vanderbilt. This was more of the same.

In the first half, Auburn had four drives inside the Alabama 21…and scored six points. One drive ended with an ugly 39-yard missed field goal. The second period ended with a failed fourth attempt as Payton Thorne was pressured into losing the ball. The fourth, in the final seconds of the second quarter, was the worst: three consecutive stuffed runs inside the 2, then a delay of game penalty and a short field goal.

The Tigers entered Saturday with a turnover margin (minus-11) that was fourth-worst in the country. Even though Auburn won the turnover battle 3-0 in the first half, it still trailed 14-6 at halftime. The Tigers had a chance to cut the game to one point in the fourth quarter after another turnover, but their trick play was intercepted inside Alabama’s 5. – Baker

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What happened in the near-brawl?

If there were any doubts about what the playoffs would bring for rivalry games, they were answered (again) in the third quarter. Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Auburn’s KeAndre Lambert-Smith remained tangled up after a Tigers pass fell incomplete. The contact continued down the Auburn sideline, drawing a handful of Alabama players. A shoving match ensued in which at least one Auburn player punched an Alabama player.

Two Crimson Tide defensive linemen, Smith and Malachi Moore, were penalized for unsportsmanlike conduct.

Tensions are high between Alabama and Auburn 😳 pic.twitter.com/YAPVTdb8UU

– ESPN (@espn) November 30, 2024

Luckily, the arguments died down fairly quickly and didn’t escalate as much as the brawl following Michigan’s upset of Ohio State earlier in the day. – Baker

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Alabama’s defense ends the regular season on a high note

Alabama’s defense was on a hot streak early in the trip to Oklahoma and then was completely embarrassed in the 24-3 loss to the Sooners. Against an Auburn team that wanted to do the same, Alabama’s defense bounced back significantly.

The Alabama offense did the defense no favors with four turnovers, but the defense only allowed six points through those mishaps. The defense kept Auburn out of the end zone despite multiple opportunities in the first half and showed up again in a game-winning moment in the fourth quarter. With the Crimson Tide up 28-14, a Milroe fumble with 12:45 left gave Auburn a prime scoring opportunity just inside Alabama. A few plays later, a bad pass from Hunter on a trick play ended up in the hands of Bray Hubbard, who was able to intercept it. On Auburn’s next possession, Zabien Brown intercepted Thorne for his second takeaway of the day.

see ball. take ball. 🤫@BraysonHubbard

📺: ABC pic.twitter.com/eNycJxvjO4

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) November 30, 2024

It’s been a year filled with ups and downs for Alabama, but with 14 points allowed on Saturday, this unit ends the regular season allowing fewer than 20 points in four of its last five games. Overall, the 17.2 points allowed per game is the lowest for an Alabama defense since 2017. –Smith

Too many turnovers and misses for the Alabama offense

A pretty remarkable performance by Alabama’s defense covered up the fact that the offense was taken down four times, bringing the total to seven in two weeks. Two weeks ago, Alabama was among the top five teams nationally with a strong turnover margin of plus-13. That has been reduced to plus-9.

In that regard, it was a particularly tough day for Milroe (one interception, two fumbles), who had three turnovers in consecutive games. But the offensive errors weren’t entirely his fault, as Alabama left several scoring plays on the field. Both Ryan Williams and CJ Dippre dropped touchdown passes in the first half.

What Alabama did well on Saturday is run the ball. Alabama recorded 201 yards on the ground, resulting in a 36:35 time of possession – a 13-minute advantage over Auburn. Milroe led the way with 104 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 17 carries. His 20 rushing touchdowns this season rank fourth all-time in a season at Alabama behind Derrick Henry, Najee Harris and Trent Richardson. At running back, Jam Miller carried the ball 28 times for 84 yards, a career-high, and Haynes added a rushing touchdown.

Alabama’s fate has yet to be decided as more results are pending. But whether the Tide are in the playoffs or going for their 10th win in a bowl game, the number of turnovers and lack of complementary football are trends that need to be addressed in the next game. –Smith

(Photo by Jalen Milroe: Jason Clark/Getty Images)