Alabama at the top, Ohio State at the bottom

At least 18 teams remain in playoff contention, but who will take the final spot? Never discount brand bias. That helps Alabama.
South Carolina is the hottest bubble team, but the Gamecocks lost to Alabama and Ole Miss.
Expect a heated debate over whether Ohio State or Tennessee deserves the final spot to host the first-round game.

One loss at Ohio State and a few shots of pepper spray later, and we’re a little misty-eyed as we try to figure out how the College Football Playoff committee will handle a scrappy group of teams competing for the final spot in fight the table.

By my count, there are 18 teams left in playoff contention heading into conference championship weekend.

Playoff possibilities include a team that lost to Kentucky (Mississippi), a team that lost to Oklahoma (Alabama) with six wins, and a team that stole the ACC with three losses (Clemson).

Let’s get into my latest playoff bracket prediction.

Memory: That is not a prediction of what I think the College Football Playoff standings will look like on Tuesday. Rather, this projects what I believe the playoff round will look like come Selection Sunday on December 8th.

Also remember: The top four seeds would receive a bye in the first round, while teams seeded 5 through 8 would host first-round playoff games. To finish in the top four, a team must win its conference championship.

1. Oregon (Big Ten)

The Ducks have passed every test and are the only remaining undefeated team. The cost of losing the Big Ten Championship would be significant and would push Oregon to No. 5, which could push it into a game against an SEC team like Alabama or South Carolina. Stopping Penn State won’t be a layup, but the Ducks are showing a team up to the task. Last week’s forecast: No. 5.

DISH PROJECTIONS: Alabama returns to the playoffs while Texas and SMU advance

RE-RANGE: Texas advances, Ohio State falls 1-134 in the NCAA rankings

2. Texas (SEC)

The Longhorns earned the rematch against Georgia they had been craving since imploding in the first half of an October loss to the Bulldogs. Georgia put on a performance that night that hasn’t been seen often. If both teams play their best, Georgia might be a step better, but Texas shows more consistency and certainly won’t repeat its four turnovers from the first meeting, right? Last week’s forecast: No. 8.

3. SMU (ACC)

The Mustangs have been playing like the best team in the ACC for several weeks and the committee has refused to acknowledge that, but there’s no denying that SMU is the No. 3 seed in the group if it gets its 10th straight win by beating Clemson won. Rhett Lashlee’s quarterback switch to Kevin Jennings galvanized SMU and remains one of the best coaching decisions of the season. Last week’s forecast: No. 3

4. Arizona State (Big 12)

Boise State was ahead of the Sun Devils in the rankings last week, but Arizona State’s stunning win over rival Arizona should close the gap. If the Sun Devils then beat Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game, the committee can accept that as permission to give the Big 12 the final bye and snub the Broncos. A win over the Cyclones would give Arizona State two ranked wins in its last three games. Last week’s forecast: Not projected in brackets.

5. Notre Dame (overall)

Expect Penn State to edge ahead of the Irish on Tuesday. However, if Oregon beats Penn State in the Big Ten Championship, the committee will have to decide whether – and how much – to penalize the Nittany Lions for taking a gamble against the No. 1 team while Notre Dame is at home sat. The committee has always rated Penn State ahead of Notre Dame, but a loss to Oregon would still be fresh in their minds. Last week’s forecast: No. 7.

6. Penn State (overall)

If Penn State beats Oregon and secures the No. 1 or 2 seed, then Ohio State’s loss to Michigan will have been worth it for the Nittany Lions. If Oregon wins, Penn State will have had a tough game and won little to nothing by its seeding. Penn State last won the Big Ten in 2016, so from that perspective, consider this a valuable opportunity. It will also tell us more about whether Penn State should be considered a contender or contender for the national title. Last week’s forecast: No. 6.

7. Georgia (in general)

Beating Texas a second time shouldn’t be an easy task, but thanks to Georgia’s win against Georgia Tech in eight overtimes, the Bulldogs will enter this SEC Championship game with less pressure. Georgia’s head-to-head wins over Texas and Tennessee, two teams that will be in the bracket, will help secure its edge even in the event of a loss in Atlanta. Last week’s forecast: #2.

8. Ohio State (overall)

The Buckeyes failed on their last run down the runway and suffered a familiar result against Michigan. This will test whether the committee falls victim to the moment. Through 11 games, OSU looked like a national championship contender. It features wins against two teams in that group, Penn State and Indiana, and a one-point loss to Oregon. A seeding based on a full resume could be enough to secure a home game in the first round, but the Buckeyes are putting their fate in the hands of the committee. Last week’s forecast: #1.

9. Tennessee (in general)

The Vols did their business against Vanderbilt and put themselves in the conversation for a home game in the first round. Seeding could be crucial for Tennessee, which plays much better at Neyland Stadium. So, Ohio State or Tennessee? Both teams have top defense. OSU’s overall review is better, but can the committee forget what it saw from the Buckeyes against Michigan? That is the question. Last week’s forecast: No. 9.

10. Indiana (in general)

Losing Miami and Clemson while Indiana ripped the soul out of Purdue ended the debate over whether the Hoosiers will receive an at-large bid. We’re talking 9-3 teams with tough losses here, so, yes, Indiana is there, and the first round of the playoffs will show whether that performance against Ohio State was a harbinger of cheating status or an aberration that masked a good team . Last week’s forecast: No. 11.

11. Boise State (group of five)

The Broncos are not your average Group of Five team. They own one of the two front-runners for the Heisman Trophy. Their only loss was on the road against Oregon, by three points. But giving Boise State a final first-round bye against a two-loss Big 12 champion would take some of the spine out of a committee that has always been hesitant to give respect to Boise’s name. Last week’s forecast: No. 4.

12. Alabama (overall)

Look, the final team selected will have a smeared resume. That is a fact. How do I choose? I think Alabama’s strong schedule and head-to-head result against South Carolina are the deciding factor, with some brand orientation providing the final push. Last week’s forecast: Not projected in the mount.

Omitted from last week’s bracket forecast

∎ Miami

The case for South Carolina

No bad losses and with six wins in a row, the Gamecocks are the hottest team in the fight for the last place. Clemson winning the ACC Championship would boost South Carolina’s bid, but a Gamecocks bid would require the committee to ignore head-to-head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.

The case for Miami

When it comes to last place, which is all about counting losses, Miami gets the nod, and I’m sorry for your bad luck, SEC. But by that logic, why reward Miami over Brigham Young, which has two losses, has a better top-flight (SMU) and a stronger schedule? The case for Miami seems weak in this regard.

The case for Ole Miss

The Rebels’ three losses resulted in a combined lead of 13 points. They have a dominant win against the team that could win the SEC Championship (Georgia) as well as a blowout road win against a team in question (South Carolina). If only Ole Miss hadn’t lost to Kentucky at home, the Rebels would be a doozy, but they lost to Kentucky.

Blake Toppmeyer is the national college football columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. The “Topp Rope” is his soccer column published throughout the USA TODAY Networkk. Subscribe to read his entire columnS.

Alabama at the top, Ohio State at the bottom

ByAmelia Journalton

By Amelia Journalton

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