Buy fantasy football cheaply: Wide receiver breakout candidates (Week 13)

There are many ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, it depends on how many fantasy points they score, and no amount of regression analysis or film looping will ever change that.

However, players can over-perform or under-perform in certain games and during certain time periods, and it is important to find a balance.

Does a receiver come out of a game with six targets and two touchdowns? He’s probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he enters an elite match with a high over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically lots of high-leverage targets but not as many catches as he should have), he’s easy to identify as a breakout candidate. But what if he’s outside in high winds against a premier passing D? Maybe next week will be his week.

That’s why I put together a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The breakout score model takes three important things into account:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player’s actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining a few key variables like the opponent’s pass defense, wind, game totals, and more, we can see who is actually prepared for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Predictions: Sometimes a player gets a lot more volume and impact looks but faces a role reduction when a starter returns. We can help address this by relying on numberFire’s fantasy football predictions and projected rushing and target volume.

With that all sorted out, let’s get started.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 13 Buy low wide receiver targets

Here are the top candidates whose breakout score is significantly higher than their actual FanDuel points per game result in the last three games leads in week 13.

Let’s highlight some names.

Justin Jefferson

Just a quick shout out to Justin Jefferson, whose breakout score is 14.8, double his output of 7.4 half-PPR points per game over the last three games.

Jefferson is inside against an average pass defense with a strong implied team total.

You definitely start him in season-long leagues, but an overcorrection play is something to keep in mind for daily fantasy purposes.

Michael Pittman

Michael Pittman Jr. is back on the list ahead of a matchup with the New England Patriots’ 27th-ranked adjusted defense.

Last week, Pittman’s yard-upper flashed, and he had 96 yards on 7 targets, a team-high 28.0% target share. Pittman also saw four downfield targets.

New England ranks 30th in yards per route run and 28th in catch rate exceeding opposing wideouts’ expectations.

Christian Watson

Christian Watson checks the boxes this week.

Since Watson returned to the Packers lineup six games ago, no one on the team has had much of a target share.

However, Watson had many high-impact performances and Romeo Doubs left the Week 12 game with a concussion.

That could make Watson (or Jayden Reed) the WR1 on offense and, frankly, move them to the top of the list of expected air yards leaders for Week 13.

The Green Bay Packers host the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving evening. It will be cold and a bit windy, but Watson is at home with a high average target depth (aDOT). Miami ranks just 16th in adjusted pass defense this season.

Ladd McConkey
Quentin Johnston
Josh Palmer

The Los Angeles Chargers trio of Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer all end up in the buy-low model after mostly disappointing performances in Week 12 on Monday Night Football against the Baltimore Ravens.

This week they face the 29th ranked Atlanta Falcons’ adjusted defense and are in despite being away.

The implied team total is strong enough here, yet market shares have been concentrated lately. Here are the breakdowns since Johnston returned to the lineup four games ago.

While there are no elite target stocks here, there are downfield targets that can be avoided. McConkey (4.5 downfield targets per game), Palmer (4.0) and Johnston (3.8) all average at least 78.8 air yards per game in this four-game sample.

The Falcons rank 31st in catch percentage above opposing wideouts’ expectations and rank last overall in catch percentage allowed.

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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The author’s advice does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice is not a guarantee of a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.