Bitcoin price target and corrections for this bull market: CMT

• Bitcoin’s rally is being fueled by the 2024 halving and a crypto-friendly US president.
• Adrian Zduńczyk says Bitcoin price could rise to $200,000.
• However, investors should prepare for some setbacks early next year, he says.

The perfect storm has come together, resulting in a rally for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. And while no one can be sure how this rally will turn out, many are turning to Bitcoin’s historical behavior to predict upcoming price action.

Bitcoin’s price rise is no surprise to its enthusiasts, who expect a rise every four years triggered by the halving, which halves the rate of new coins created and reduces supply. As demand exceeds tighter supply, this drives up the price, increasing momentum and attracting even more buyers. In this round, the halving took place on April 19, 2024.

Adrian Zduńczyk, a licensed market technician who has been tracking Bitcoin price patterns since 2022, marks the reversal of this round’s bear market, which began in January 2023 when it broke through a key resistance line at $20,000 and began to gradually rise until the halving.

What’s new in this round is the US election, which ushered in crypto-friendly President Donald Trump and helped kick the Bitcoin rally into high gear. Since November 5th, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 45%.

In fact, the political environment has drawn investors’ attention to the asset, noted Zduńczyk, the founder of crypto advisory firm The Birb Nest. Trump has expressed his support for crypto in a variety of ways, including pledging to keep Bitcoins held by the U.S. government, choosing a crypto-friendly replacement for Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler, the numerous has filed lawsuits against crypto companies, and by eliminating taxes on Bitcoin, among other things.

Regardless of the political environment, the asset is primed for an uptrend, Zduńczyk said.

“For the Bitcoin bull market, it doesn’t matter too much who holds the presidential seat, because it would have been a similar reaction to Trump,” Zduńczyk said. “Maybe with Kamala Harris it would have just taken a little longer.”

forecast

But is it too late to buy as the digital asset hovers at an all-time high above $100,000? The answer to this question is individual and depends on numerous factors, including an investor’s risk tolerance and ability.

Since Zduńczyk is a breakout trader, he buys up at the beginning of a breakout following the “buy high, sell higher” strategy. But for those looking for a bargain price, if Bitcoin follows its historical behavior, there will be too much volatility in the future. Any correction would be a flash in the pan and difficult to plan for, he noted.

Zduńczyk currently expects the Bitcoin price to continue rising until the end of the year. Ahead of Trump’s inauguration on January 20, he is bracing for heightened anticipation as traders place bets on the event, a move commonly referred to as “buy the rumor, sell the news” that follows the belief of many about impending climaxes Profits could be taken from the expected events.

If this is the case, Zduńczyk expects a correction would follow, taking effect in late January and into February, leading to at least two 15% corrections, with the most likely scenario being three 30% corrections , before entering the final phase of its bull run where it could reach $200,000 this cycle.

His expectation of a higher price is supported by the assumption that retail traders have not yet fully joined the rally. He pointed to last week’s Google search trends, which reached just 44% of the 2021 search peak at the time of the latest bull rally.

“So that means that not even five out of ten people are in the game compared to the last peak in 2021,” Zduńczyk said. “And the market has grown so much because of the ETFs.”

Not only do ETFs have institutional value, they also have adoption value for retail investors who have been wary of buying the asset because of custody barriers, he said. As more participants gain access to Bitcoin, a deeper and broader market could emerge.