College Football Playoff Final Round Prediction, Rankings

The final 2024 College Football Playoff rankings will be announced on Sunday, December 8, and things are sure to change after conference championship weekend. Before the CFP committee announces the next rankings, I predict where the top 25 teams will finish, along with the rankings.

Note that these are my predictions and mine alone. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams and more to help rank the teams the way I think the CFP committee will. You can read the official minutes of the GFP Committee here.

2024 College Football Playoff Ranking Predictions: Final Top 25 Predictions

As with all conference championship games, these predictions are considered final.

1. Oregon (13-0) LW: 1 – The Big Ten champion Ducks are undefeated and will be the No. 1 team and seed in the postseason.
2. Notre Dame (11-1) LW: 4 – The two teams were ahead Notre Dame (Texas and Penn State) lost last week and the team behind the Fighting Irish (Georgia) won the SEC title. I don’t think the committee allowed Notre Dame’s home loss to Northern Illinois to tarnish their eyes all season long, so I don’t think this loss will result in them falling below a SEC champion with two defeats.
3. Georgia (11-2) LW: 5 – SEC champion Georgia went to overtime in each of the last two weeks. The Bulldogs won both games and will move up to No. 3 in the rankings.
4. Texas (11-2) LW: 2 – The biggest debate will be between Texas and Ohio State for the No. 4 and No. 6 spots. Texas has two losses to Georgia, while Ohio State has one loss to Oregon and Michigan. I don’t think the committee will let the Longhorns fall behind the Buckeyes, to whom both teams lost, even though OSU has had better wins.
5. Ohio State (10-2) LW: 6 – Ohio State benefits from a head-to-head win over Penn State and will be the No. 5 team in the country. Still, it is possibly the worst spot in the rankings. The Buckeyes will be the No. 7 seed in the playoffs, making them the third-seed overall team.
6. Tennessee (10-2) LW: 7 – Tennessee will move up one spot in the rankings and the committee’s reasoning will be based on wins. The committee clearly valued the win over Alabama enough to put the Vols above a trio of one-loss teams last week, so I think this win will put Tennessee over Penn State as well.
7. Penn State (11-2) LW: 3 – Penn State’s best win is against Illinois. The strength of the schedule isn’t the best either, ranking just 36th nationally. That means the Nittany Lions will drop to No. 7 in these rankings and play on the road in the first round of the playoffs — even after pushing Oregon to the limit.
8. Boise State (12-1) LW: 10 – Boise State is ahead of Indiana thanks to a conference championship win.
9. Indiana (11-1) LW: 9 – Indiana was ahead of Boise State last week. The order won’t matter in seeding, but the Hoosiers fall behind the Broncos this week.
10. SMU (11-2) LW: 8 – The No. 10 ranking is about the final place in the playoffs. The question is: Will SMU or Alabama get the spot? If you asked me what the committee thinks at the end of the third quarter of the ACC Championship Game, I would say the committee gives Alabama the spot. However, because SMU forced a game-winning field goal in a loss, the Mustangs showed the committee enough to secure the final spot and will NOT be penalized for playing during conference championship week.
11. Alabama (9-3) LW: 11 – Three losses are more than two, especially when one team has lost to as many unranked teams as the other team has lost in total. Alabama did not compete in its conference championship. The Tide couldn’t do anything to improve its record this week and ultimately missed the playoffs.
12. Miami (FL) (10-2) LW: 12 – The committee said Miami couldn’t do anything without playing on the field, leaving the Hurricanes stuck behind Alabama.
13. Ole Miss (9-3) LW: 13 – Like Miami, Ole Miss is deadlocked this week.
14. Arizona State (11-2) LW: 15 – A conference championship puts Arizona State ahead of South Carolina, but the committee won’t expect that to be enough to get past an Ole Miss team that earned a straight win over the SEC champion.
15. South Carolina (9-3) LW: 14 – South Carolina is ranked ahead of Clemson because it was defeated just two weeks ago.
16. Clemson (10-3) LW: 17 – The ACC champions have a non-conference state cap in the rankings, but they will still make the playoffs.
17. Iowa State (10-3) LW: 16 – Consistent with the way the committee handles conference championship losses, Iowa State remains ahead of BYU, a Big 12 team that didn’t make it to the championship game.
18. BYU (10-2) LW: 18 – BYU remains at No. 18.
19. Missouri (9-3) LW: 19 – Missouri remains at No. 19
20. Army (11-1) LW: 24 – A conference championship puts Army in the top 20 of the rankings.
21. Illinois (9-3) LW: 21 – Illinois might be above Army, but I don’t see that happening. That’s why it stays put.
22. Syracuse (9-3) LW: 22 – See above for Syracuse.
23. Colorado (9-3) LW: 23 – Colorado will likely fall behind Army without a conference championship.
24. Memphis (10-2) LW: 25 – Memphis remains ranked this week.
25. Duke (9-3) LW: NR – Duke takes over UNLV after the Rebels lost the Mountain West Championship game. Why is that? Well, the Blue Devils became the first team from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC since 2015 to finish 9-3 last week and not make the CFP rankings at the end of the regular season. Now Duke gets its spot in the rankings AND it also gives teams like SMU and Miami a ranking win.

What the mount might look like

First teams out: No. 11 Alabama, No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Ole Miss

CFP🏆: College Football Playoff rankings release schedule

Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions

Which teams will host a first round game?

Texas, Ohio State, Tennessee and Penn State all have two losses without a conference championship. Only three of those teams will be able to host a first-round playoff game at home. Ohio State will definitely host since it was ranked ahead of Tennessee last week, but what about the other three? Will a two-loss Texas fall to a two-loss Tennessee in the SEC? Where does Penn State end up with two losses and does the straight loss to Ohio State play a role?

Here’s a look at all of their resumes.

CONF CHAMP WEEK SUMMARY:

What will come out of SMU vs. Alabama for last place?

Who should get the final playoff spot between SMU and Alabama? The Mustangs lost a conference championship game and the committee was clear – the difference between No. 8 and No. 11 was crystal clear – that SMU was better than the Tide last week. Will an SMU loss when Alabama hasn’t even played knock out the Mustangs? I don’t think so, despite the differences in their lives, but we’ll find out on Sunday.

Who is number 4?

Arizona State and Clemson were separated by one team in the rankings last week – and both teams won their conference championship games. Arizona State was ranked higher but beat a lower-ranked team than Clemson. Could who you beat for a conference championship be the deciding factor in the rankings and seedings?