Predictions and best bets for Dolphins vs. Texans:

A key NFL Week 15 game takes place on Sunday at NRG Stadium when the Miami Dolphins visit the Houston Texans. Miami has slim hopes of making the playoffs, while a Houston win and an Indianapolis Colts loss will seal the AFC South for the Texans.

The Texans, coming off their bye week, are 3-point home favorites at BetMGM. The total is 47. Read on for my expert Dolphins vs. Texans predictions and best bets for NFL Week 15.

Predictions and best bets for Dolphins vs. Texans

• CJ Stroud Over 242.5 yards: -114 on FanDuel
• Daulton Schultz Over 3.5 Receptions: +108 at BetMGM
• Houston Texans -2.5: -120 at FanDuel

Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud is proving his rookie year was no fluke. Despite the numerous injuries to his wide receiver room, the Ohio State sophomore has thrown for 3,117 passing yards with 15 scoring strikes and nine interceptions.

Stroud finally has a healthy reception room. He threw two touchdown passes in Week 13, marking just the second time in his previous five receiving touchdowns.

The former Buckeye has thrown more than two touchdown passes just four times this season, but has thrown twice in the last five years. The Dolphins have allowed 38 big plays over 20, and Nico Collins and Tank Dell are as big of a big play as you’ll find in the NFL.

Even though the Texans’ wide receiver room is mostly at capacity, tight end Dalton Schultz has five receptions in two of the last three. The Dolphins will quarterback and be strong against the run. We might see Stroud target his trusted tight end more often, and Schultz usually delivers.

Stroud and the Texans should score enough points to cover the -2.5 point spread. Miami can score points, but the Texans’ defense has given up fewer than 21 points in three of their last five games. I’m betting Houston gets enough stops to cover the -2.5.

Moneyline Odds Analysis Dolphins vs. Texans

Why the Texans could win as favorites

Best odds: -142 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Texans should win this game. They are coming off a bye week and have won four of their last six games at NRG Stadium. This is an important game for the Texans; A Houston win combined with an Indianapolis Colts loss would give the Texans their second straight AFC South title.

Houston is motivated to win. They also have Stroud and a healthier wide receiver room than the second-year quarterback has enjoyed in weeks. Collins and Dell are big-play wideouts and the perfect complement to running back Joe Mixon.

Luckily for Houston’s defense, the Dolphins’ potent offense didn’t reach the end zone as often as career stats and experts say.

Miami averages a measly 20 points per game, and an offensive line that protects Tagovailoa at times will struggle against a second-best defensive line in the NFL. That should slow down an exceptional Miami offense just enough to make them the favorite to win.

Why the Dolphins could win as underdogs

Best odds: +130 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Dolphins must protect Tagovailoa to win as an underdog. Tagovailoa has suffered concussions in the past and his line doesn’t always protect him well. He’s been sacked more than three times in the last five years, including twice last week against Jacksonville.

Therefore, keeping Tagovailoa upright is most important as Houston chases quarterbacks and gets sacks. If he gets time, Tyreek Hill is coming off a 10-reception day, and Jaylen Waddle is also dangerous.

That should give a boost to a Miami team that isn’t scoring on the road. The scoring average drops by almost five points outside Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins need to score because Houston is averaging 23 points per game at home and coming off a bye week.

The Dolphins defense is strong enough to slow down Stroud and the Texans. They give up less than three touchdowns per game away from Miami. Miami’s defense is good enough to slow the Texans and its offense is capable of putting up big numbers. If that happens, Miami can win as an underdog.