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XAG/USD falls to nearly .30 amid uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting

  • Silver prices fall to nearly $30.30 as investors become more cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting.
  • Traders have fully priced in a 25 basis point Fed rate cut.
  • Economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times in 2025.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to nearly $30.30 in Wednesday’s North American session. The white metal falls as investors turn cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 20:00 GMT.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut, which will bring lending rates down to 4.25% to 4.50%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s dot plot, which shows the direction policymakers will take on federal fund rates in the medium and long term.

A Dec. 6-11 Bloomberg survey showed economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times next year, assuming progress in reducing inflation has slowed more than expected. The survey also found that economists were more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks to employment given new President Donald Trump’s policies, which include mass deportations, higher import tariffs and tax cuts.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the greenback against six major currencies, is consolidating around 107.00. Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are rising to nearly 4.40%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets like silver by increasing their opportunity cost.

Technical Silver Analysis

Silver prices slipped to a new two-week low near $30.20 on Wednesday. The white metal is weakening after falling below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), trading at around $30.95.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is fluctuating in the range of 40.00-60.00, indicating a sideways trend.

Looking to the downside, the uptrend line around $29.50, plotted from the February 29 low at $22.30 on a daily time frame, would act as key support for silver prices. On the upside, the horizontal resistance coming from the May 21 high at $32.50 would be the barrier.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a heavily traded precious metal among investors. In the past, it was used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although it is less popular than gold, traders may turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value, or as a potential hedge during times of high inflation. Investors can purchase physical silver in coins or bars, or trade it through vehicles such as exchange-traded funds that track its price on international markets.

The price of silver can fluctuate based on a variety of factors. Geopolitical instability or fear of a deep recession can cause silver prices to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to appreciate when interest rates are lower. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves when the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices in check, while a weaker dollar is likely to push prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more common than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in areas such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivities of any metal – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can increase prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the economies of the US, China and India can also contribute to price fluctuations: in the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; In India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a crucial role in pricing.

The price of silver tends to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver tends to follow suit as their safe-haven status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which indicates the number of ounces of silver required to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation of both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio could indicate that gold is undervalued compared to silver.

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