Tips, odds and predictions for Thursday January 2nd

This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.

Thursday’s college basketball tournament has a distinct Big Ten atmosphere as many teams from the now-vast conference prepare to take the court. Here are my predictions for three Big Ten games on Thursday.

Purdue in Minnesota

The Boilermakers played one of the most challenging schedules in the first two months, ranking eighth in difficulty, according to KenPom. They picked up several important victories, beating Alabama, Mississippi and Maryland, but also suffered four losses. The stumbles came against teams presumably competing for top spots in the NCAA Tournament, which isn’t a huge shame given these results.

In stark contrast, the Gophers played one of the easiest non-conference schedules, ranking 347th in difficulty. Minnesota’s two toughest games came against Big Ten foes Michigan State and Indiana, and neither was competitive. The Gophers each trailed by double digits at halftime and lost by more than 15 points in both cases.

When Purdue has the ball on Thursday, it will face a Minnesota defense that has difficulty stopping skilled offensive teams. The Gophers have already allowed over 80 points to Michigan State and Indiana and now face the best offensive team on their schedule. The Boilermakers have the 11th-highest offensive efficiency rating in the country, well above Minnesota’s defense, which ranks 90th.

When Minnesota has the ball, it has to play much better on offense if it wants to keep the game close. The Gophers have by far the lowest offensive efficiency rating of any Big Ten team and the box scores prove it. Minnesota has played four teams with a defensive efficiency rating in the top 70 and has not scored more than 72 points in any of those games. Purdue ranks 70th in defensive efficiency, so this will be another telling test for the home team.

Purdue isn’t as elite as it has been in recent years, but it’s still a great team that can get it done when the heat gets hot. The only losses came against top-tier defensive teams, with all four opponents sharing one common trait: a top-50 defensive efficiency rating. Minnesota is far from that and doesn’t even have a strong offense to compensate. For these reasons I turn to the boilermakers.

College Basketball Best Bet: Purdue -6.5

Maryland in Washington

At first glance, the turtles are incredibly impressive. They have won 11 of 13 games, including wins over Villanova and Ohio State, and their only losses came against Marquette and Purdue. However, they haven’t played against any other notable teams. Maryland ranks 350th in strength of schedule according to KenPom, so that’s something to keep in mind when looking at the raw numbers.

The Huskies, meanwhile, won nine of 13 games against a team that ranked 162nd in difficulty. Their only highlight of the season was defeating Colorado State and Santa Clara en route to winning the Acrisure Invitational during Feast Week. They lost their two toughest tests, double-digit losses to Nevada and UCLA, so they need to start picking up some key wins if they want to have a chance at an at-large bid in March.

When considering how this game could unfold, it’s important to note that both teams are defensive-minded. Maryland is among the best in the country at guarding, ranking eighth in efficiency, while Washington is slightly higher on the list at 79th. The Huskies have had ups and downs, but they can usually hold their own against stronger offensive teams. Washington has played three teams ranked in the top 80 in offensive efficiency rating. and it stayed below 70 points in each case.

The biggest challenge for the Huskies on Wednesday will be scoring points. The Terrapins rank at the top of the country in seemingly every defensive category, including efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnovers, rebounds and free throw attempt rate allowed. Washington has shown a penchant for making contact, ranking 44th in free throw attempt percentage, but otherwise it isn’t great. Two points that speak against it are its free throw rate, which is below 65 percent, and it is also prone to having its shots blocked (330th).

Overall, Maryland is a much better team, but scoring points in a conference game on the road is not a given. Both teams in this matchup are excellent on defense, so I’m betting we’ll see a low-scoring game. In this case I’m at the bottom.

College Basketball Best Bet: Under 149.5

Illinois in Oregon

The Fighting Illini won nine of 12 games to start the season, including decisive victories over Arkansas, Wisconsin and Missouri. They also nearly beat Tennessee but lost on a buzzer-beater, giving us a team that can compete with the best.

Not to be outdone, the Ducks can make a similar claim, having already defeated Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama, all en route to victory at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas during Feast Week. Oregon’s only blemish came at home against UCLA, so this team isn’t perfect, even if their record is one shot away from being flawless.

Oregon has played at a high level defensively most of the year and ranks 21st in efficiency. However, there is one thing in which it does not perform well. Unlike most other defensive areas, the Ducks are mediocre at protecting the boards and rank 188th in defensive rebound percentage. This isn’t the worst ranking, but this relative weakness could make the difference in a game with tight margins. Illinois ranks 29th in offensive rebounding percentage, so this isn’t an ideal opponent for Oregon. The Illini are also exceptionally high in other areas such as free throw attempt percentage and two-point field goal percentage, giving them plenty of opportunities to score on second chance opportunities.

Not to be outdone, Illinois has played defense at an even higher level, ranking 12th in efficiency. It doesn’t cause many turnovers, but it ranks in the top 15 in the country in several critical categories, including effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, two-point field goal percentage and three-point field -Goal percentage. Point totals in games involving Illinois tend to be inflated because the Illini aggressively push the tempo, but their defense has played noticeably better since falling short against Alabama earlier this year. According to KenPom, Illinois had the most efficient defensive performance of any opponent against Northwestern and Tennessee and also had the second most efficient defensive performance against Wisconsin and Missouri. These are all good opponents, so these results shouldn’t go unnoticed, even if the overall score is misleading.

Oregon is a strong team, but Illinois has proven it can compete with the best. With an elite defense and a significant offensive rebounding advantage, I’m taking Illinois for the points.

College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois +4.5

Thursday’s college basketball best bets:

Here’s a recap of my top college basketball bets for Thursday:

• Purdue -6.5
• Maryland at Washington – Under 149.5
• Illinois +4.5

For current information on the latest status College Basketball Betting Odds and props from multiple sportsbooks can be found here College basketball odds Page on RotoWire.