Analyzing the free agents the St. Louis Cardinals could sign in the late inning

It’s been a long time, so I could be misremembering, but does anyone remember this scene from the acclaimed 1995 film? Clueless Where does Cher choose her outfit for the day? For the time, she had a sophisticated inventory of all her clothes and a device that allowed her to preview any outfit in a photo of herself without having to try on the outfit and leaving a trail of outfit rejects on the on the floor of her room. It was the dream.

My approach to finding the St. Louis Cardinals late inning replacement is similar. I have an inventory of the options and a preview of what they could look like as members of the St. Louis Cardinals (or rather, what I think we can expect based on their recent performance). Then we can scroll through each one until we find what we’re looking for. Simple and elegant. Let’s get started.

The first step is to identify the Cardinals’ needs. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch, the Cardinals are specifically looking for a reliever to replace the departure of Andrew Kittredge, whom they lost to free agency at the start of the offseason. Kittredge appeared in 74 games for the Cardinals, throwing over 70 innings (the most among Cardinals relievers in 2024). In those innings, he posted a 2.80 ERA with a 3.96 FIP. He struck out over 23% of batters while walking 7%. Over the course of his career, he was a good fireman, leaving nearly 77% of runners on base (to be clear, that’s LOB percent, or runners left on base overall, not just inherited runners). In 2024, that rate was nearly 82% (the highest among Cardinals relievers who pitched a significant number of innings in 2024). Over the course of his career, he has performed well even in difficult situations. According to Fangraph’s Clutch statistic, which measures how well a player performs in high-leverage situations compared to context-neutral situations, Kittredge has a 2.25-run margin over his career.

Looking at his arsenal, Kittredge regularly throws three pitches but relies primarily on two: a slider and a sinker. The third pitch is a four-seam fastball, which is not nearly as interesting from him to me. It’s a slight change from previous seasons when he threw his sinker more often than his slider. In 2024, he threw the slider on nearly 50% of his pitches. According to Baseball Savant, he is in the 100th percentile in chase percentage at 38.9%. This is largely due to a slider with a 41.3% wiff rate and a .177 batting average. The pitch receives more vertical and horizontal breaks than average comparable sliders. It was a very good pitch for him.

That brings me to my first free agent I want to discuss: Andrew Kittredge. He and the Cardinals parted ways at the end of the season, and since the Cardinals had expressed interest in giving some of their younger talent more playing time, it appeared that the Cardinals would supplement the bullpen with players from within the organization. However, the team is looking to replace the biggest workload in the bullpen and is reportedly in the market. The player who previously held the position would be a good candidate.

Of course, the Cardinals also reportedly want to shed their salaries, and if the team isn’t able to offload the salaries of a player like Nolan Arenado, they might be less willing to spend the estimated $14 million over two years, the MLB said Trade Rumors have predicted that Kittredge could sign.

One option Goold speculated about was Texas Rangers right-hander Jose Leclerc. Aside from a truly spectacular 2018 season, Leclerc has had mixed results but a fairly consistent FIP ​​in the middle of the 3s. In 2024, his ERA was 4.32, but his FIP was lower, although still unremarkable at 3.48. He has a 4-seamer that he throws over 95 mph on average and has a .176 batting average, as well as a slider that has a wiff rate of 45.7%. In 2024, the Rangers picked up his club option for $6.25 million, allowing him to command a similar contract to Kittredge.

Another pitcher who has been mentioned as an option is Chris Martin, a right-handed free agent from the Boston Red Sox. For Martin, entering the season at age 39 is an interesting option for several reasons. Although he would likely command an AAV similar to Kittredge or Leclerc, he might be more willing to sign a one-year deal instead of two years, which represents a big difference in risk for the Cardinals. The other aspect I found interesting about Martin is that he is a fastball pitcher who primarily throws a cutter and a four-seamer with the occasional split finger and sinker. He’s known as a strike thrower who limits hard contact, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make batters swing and miss. His career K% is over 25% – it was 27.8% in 2024. Even more impressive was his 1.7% walk rate, which was even lower than his career average of 3.2%. (There’s just something really special to me about a pitcher who strikes out batters with fastballs and never issues walks. It just feels like baseball at its least complicated but most precise form.)

Kyle Finnegan is a right-handed free agent who previously played with the Washington Nationals. He lacks the overwhelming skills of Leclerc and even Kittredge, but he has consistently pitched solid innings in high-leverage situations. His Fangraphs Clutch stat is 1.4 runs in his favor and he has a career 3.56 ERA with a 4.24 FIP, logging over 66 innings each of the last four seasons. Perhaps more importantly for the Cardinals, his contract with the Nats was for one year and $5.1 million through 2024 (Gabe pointed out to me that was what I originally had – $2.325 million , was wrong – I was looking at 2023, which is probably similar to what he would sign for 2025.

An even cheaper option could be a reunion with former Cardinal Joe Kelly. Kelly enters his age-36 season after having a couple of poor seasons in a row in terms of results. Since 2022, he has not thrown more than 40 innings in a season and his ERA has not been below 4.00. However, he is still a hitter with a K rate of over 30% in 2022 and 2023, dropping to 24.5% in 2024. Kelly also has late-inning experience, which may be something the Cardinals are specifically looking for. (It is currently unclear whether his handshake grip has become stronger since we last spoke.)

Other pitchers I think could be good options (and perhaps worth another post – or a fan post if you’re feeling inspired), in no particular order:

Kirby Yates (Texas Rangers)
Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees)
Ryne Stanek (New York Mets)
Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins)
Lou Trivino (New York Yankees)
Spencer Turnbull (Philadelphia Phillies)
Paul Sewald (Arizona Diamondbacks)

You may have noticed, but I’ve sorted them in order of the fits I like the most to the least. The more I wrote about Andrew Kittredge, the more I convinced myself that they should just bring this guy back. There are few that I haven’t reached that I think could give the Cardinals what they’re looking for – stability at the end of games at a bargain price. Kirby Yates and his 2.50 FIP certainly seem like a good option, although I imagine it would come at a cost. Lou Trivino has an interesting pitch arsenal to me. There are still plenty of options for the Cardinals. Until they are selected, we just have to keep scrolling through them until we find what we like! Happy Sunday (and stay safe out there – I’m writing this at 3am with the sleet and ice pattering soothingly on the windows)!