Final spread and outcome predictions

Update (10:00 a.m. ET): Today’s game between the Hawks and Rockets has been postponed to a later date due to severe weather in the Atlanta area. The Hawks released a statement about the game a few minutes ago:

“This afternoon’s National Basketball Association game between the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena has been postponed. The decision was made in consultation with local officials and to prioritize the safety of players, fans and staff due to the severe weather and dangerous ice conditions in the Atlanta area. The date for the postponed game will be announced at a later date.

The Hawks completed their six-game road trip against the Suns on Thursday, playing a home game at State Farm Arena for the first time since December 2024. Your opponent today is the Houston Rockets, who are currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are one of the deepest teams in the league and the Hawks will once again be without Jalen Johnson. This is the fourth straight game missed for Johnson and his fifth absence in the last six games.

Our own Rohan Raman gave a detailed preview of today’s game:

“Before today’s game, the Hawks rank 6th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 23rd in turnovers and 9th in rebounding. By Cleaning the glassAtlanta ranks 14th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebound percentage and 10th . place in terms of free throw rate.

Currently, the Hawks rank 28th in PPG allowed, 25th in field goals allowed, 29th in three-point attempts allowed and 30th in three-point percentage allowed. According to Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta ranks 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Houston doesn’t shoot the ball well, but usually closes the gap with second points on offense. The Rockets rank 12th in points per game, 28th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 29th in 3P%, 7th in FTA, 23rd. Place in turnovers and 1st place in rebounds. Per Cleaning the glassHouston ranks 10th in points per 100 possessions, 28th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 1st in offensive rebounding percentage, and 16th . place in terms of free throw rate.

Their strength lies in defense. The Rockets rank 3rd in PPG allowed, 3rd in field goals allowed, 2nd in three-point attempts allowed and 11th in three-point percentage allowed. According to Cleaning the Glass, Houston ranks 3rd in the number of points allowed per 100 possessions and 3rd in the number of effective field goals allowed.

Considering how good Houston is at perimeter defense, this will be a very tough matchup for a Hawks team that doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well anyway. The Rockets communicate well on defense and should be able to intervene on a Hawks team that relies heavily on Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter for high-volume shots from distance.

An interesting matchup in this game is Trae Young vs. Amen Thompson. Thompson’s combination of 6’3″ height, ridiculous speed and defensive instincts is top notch and he uses it to great effect when rushing opposing ball handlers. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s good at the rim and can make a huge impact in the time he’s on the court.

It will also be interesting to see how Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu fare in their match against Alperen Sengun. The Rockets center is excellent on offense, but his rim protection leaves a lot to be desired. This could be an area for Capela/Okongwu to exploit.

Without Jalen Johnson, the Hawks will have to rely on David Roddy for points in this game. Roddy went 3/3 from deep and scored 11 points. If he can produce a similar level of production on offense for Atlanta while surviving on defense, that would be huge for their chances of surviving this matchup.

DeAndre Hunter has been one of Atlanta’s more consistent players all season, but he’s coming off a loss to the Suns with 12 points on 3-9 shooting. Getting back to form will be crucial against the Rockets, who could be without one or both of Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. on the sideline.

From an Atlanta defensive perspective, Fred VanVleet has done a good job controlling the ball in his last few appearances. However, the Rockets point guard has never faced a player like Dyson Daniels. Daniels routinely forces ball handlers to make bad decisions and lose the ball. He’s going to need some of those to keep VanVleet in check and give Atlanta an advantage in this game.”

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Rockets are six-point favorites today and the total points are at 232.5.

It’s no secret that the Hawks don’t play well without Johnson, and the Rockets present plenty of challenges. They have plenty of defenders who can pressure Trae Young and make life difficult for him, and having Johnson as a secondary ballhandler would be no secret was huge for this match. The Rockets are not an elite offensive team when it comes to shooting, but the absence of Johnson against an elite rebounding team will also cause problems. The Hawks shot the ball well against Phoenix, but I can see them having a hard time doing that tonight with the Rockets winning against the Hawks.

Final score: Rockets 117, Hawks 112

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