College Basketball: UC Irvine and UC San Diego Prediction, Betting Odds and How to Watch

One of the final games of the day could well be one of the best games of the day as UC Irvine travels south to visit UC San Diego.

Both teams are 14-2 overall and 4-0 in Big West play, meaning the winner will stand alone at the top of the conference.

The Tritons enter this matchup on a 12-game winning streak – currently the longest in the nation – and have defeated their last three opponents by a total of 114 points. The Anteaters have won their last four games and have been the favorites in each of those games.

As it should be, LionTree Arena is sold out for this Saturday night match and those in attendance should have something to look forward to. According to UCSD Athletics, this is the Tritons’ first nationally televised broadcast.

UC Irvine and UC San Diego betting odds

UC San Diego is the college basketball favorite at BetMGM against UC Irvine at odds of 6.5 points, while the over/under odds are at 139.5.

The moneyline for UCSD is -255 and for UCI it is +220.

UC Irvine and UC San Diego on TV

The match between UCSD and UCI will be televised on ESPNU.

Tonight’s game begins at 10:00 p.m. ET.

UC Irvine and UC San Diego prediction

I expect UC Irvine to cover the 6.5 point spread as a road underdog. I also expect this game to fall under 139.5 points.

The Tritons held Cal Poly — the highest-scoring team in the league — to just 68 points in their 27-point win. According to KenPom, they have the league’s best defense (62.2 points per game) and rank 72nd in the country with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.2.

The only team in the conference whose defense is better is Irvine. Its ADE of 93.4 ranks 13th nationally and first in the league. The Anteaters are also only allowing 64.6 points per game.

UCSD ranks 60th in KenPom’s net rating and Irvine ranks 63rd.

This has all the makings of a clean basketball game in which the team that makes the fewest mistakes wins. I know that this should always be the case, but that is often not the case. Not all teams take advantage of their opponents’ misfortunes the way these two teams do.

What will be important to watch is whether the UCSD defense can continue to force turnovers, especially if the Anteaters use their young frontcourt players off the bench. The Tritons’ senior guards Hayden Gray and Tyler McGhie will put pressure on the Anteaters’ ball handlers and make it difficult for them to establish themselves in their offense.

Gray leads the country in steals (62) steals per game (3.9) while UCSD forces 17.4 turnovers per game. They only cough up the ball 9.2 times per game.

UCSD forces turnovers on 24.7% of its opponents’ possessions, which is the fourth-best rate in the country.

The Anteaters turn the ball over on 19.3% of their possessions, which worries me a little, but if they can limit turnovers and value possession, they should be fine.

Triton senior forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is one of the best scorers in the league, but I think the Anteaters have the ability to slow him down. He leads the nation in free throw attempts (137) and is fourth in the Big West in scoring (18.1 PPG). He only made two shots from 3-point range.

The Anteaters play great foul-free defense and their opponents’ free throw rate per possession is 20.3%, which ranks second nationally. I don’t expect the Tritons to score points easily in this game.

I know UCSD is playing great right now and should have a great home field advantage, but I expect the Anteaters to show up and come out on top in a defensive battle.

UC Irvine is 11-4 against the spread this season, while UCSD is 11-3. The over is 4-11 in the Anteaters’ contests and 0-2 while they were underdogs.