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Should you buy Ethereum while it’s under ,500?

From January 16th the Ethereum (CRYPTO:ETH) The cryptocurrency had gained 37% in a year. However, it was a wild ride along the way, with coin prices ranging from $2,220 to $4,070. All in all, the second biggest name in crypto barely managed to top the stellar performance of S&P 500 Stock market index in the same period.

Ethereum is worth about $3,333 per coin this morning. I love alliteration and repeating patterns, but the cryptocurrency won’t stay at this attractive price for long. (Actually, it has already shifted since I quoted this price – it’s hard to keep up with these volatile digital assets.)

But none of this matters if you are thinking about becoming an Ethereum owner. What matters is whether the smart contracts platform is on the verge of an upward trend or whether it peaked ten months ago.

Ethereum has been worth more than $3,500 on several occasions. It reached this level at least seven times in 2024 and briefly exceeded $4,000 in May and December. These spikes didn’t even set records – Ethereum’s all-time high was a brief visit to $4,892 in November 2021.

A simplified look at the cryptocurrency’s price chart suggests that it tracks the four-year cycle of Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) Halving events. Ethereum prices typically rise about a year after each Bitcoin halving, skyrocket for another year or so, and then fall back again amid a crypto winter. If the market repeats this pattern, then Ethereum and other cryptos will be at the beginning of a new bull market.

However, there are many problems with this chart-view analysis.

  • As with stocks, Ethereum’s past results are no guarantee of its future performance.

  • Every Bitcoin halving cycle has been different than the previous ones, and this one is no exception. Several price-enhancing events impacted Ethereum over the past year, potentially undermining its potential for short-term gains in 2025.

  • Ethereum has a relatively short chart history. This is only the third crypto market cycle since Ethereum was launched in 2014. Perhaps investors should not draw conclusions based on this limited pool of data.

  • That brings me back to the first point: graph squiggles from the past can’t really tell you what’s coming next. Technical analysis is neither an art nor a science, but rather a game of chance. I don’t recommend making investment decisions based on such a flimsy premise.

Let’s forget about the price chart for a minute. What is actually happening in the Ethereum project and what could it mean for owners, users and investors in the long term?

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