What to Expect: Indiana at Northwestern – Inside the Hall

Indiana is on the road for the second straight season, traveling to Evanston, Illinois to face Northwestern on Wednesday night at Welsh-Ryan Arena. The Wildcats are 11-7 overall, 2-5 in the Big Ten and desperately need a win.

Wednesday’s game will air at 7:00 p.m. ET on BTN:

Indiana’s struggles against Northwestern under Mike Woodson have been well documented. Woodson’s first game in Bloomington, Indiana dates back to the 2021-22 season and was 0-4 against Chris Collins and the Wildcats.

The four games were all closely contested, with Indiana losing by 15 points. In the last two meetings in Evanston, Indiana scored just 56.5 points per game. The Hoosiers’ last win at Welsh-Ryan Arena came on February 10, 2021, during Archie Miller’s final season in Bloomington.

After appearing in the NCAA Tournament last season, Northwestern is looking to compete in March Madness for the third straight year. However, getting there will take a lot of work over the next eight weeks. At 9-1 overall at home, Northwestern has seven games remaining in Evanston starting tonight and is projected to win six of them, according to KenPom.

MEET THE WILDCATS

Northwestern is not a strong team and the Wildcats rely heavily on wing duo Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer to create mismatches offensively.

Barnhizer, a 6-foot-6 senior from Lafayette, Indiana, and Martinelli, a 6-foot-7 junior from Glenview, Illinois, are both among the Big Ten’s top scorers.

Martinelli leads Northwestern with 20 points per game, and Barnhizer, who missed four games due to injury, isn’t far behind at 18.4 points per game.

The Wildcats played back-to-back overtime games and Martinelli logged all 90 minutes. He’s a great isolation player who can make 3s, take his spots in the midfield for pull-ups or floaters, and also draw fouls. Martinelli makes 51.6 percent of his 2s and 41.3 percent of his 3s. He also made a team-high 109 free throws and has a shooting percentage of 70.6 percent. Martinelli takes – and makes – a lot of tough shots that can demoralize defenses.

Barnhizer has the ball in his hands a lot and plays a lot of pick-and-rolls. While he struggled to make threes – shooting just 27.8 percent – he was solid on twos (46.3 percent) and from the free throw line (80.5 percent). Like Martinelli, Barnhizer also loves to take his places in the midrange. But Barnhizer is also a threat when he gets off the ball screen and finds his teammates for open looks, and he has a team-high 58 assists in 14 games. Barnhizer also leads Northwestern with 9.3 rebounds per game.

Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach will start in the backcourt, along with freshman Angel Ciaravino. Ciaravino was in the starting lineup in place of Ty Berry before the Maryland game on January 16th.

Leach was on fire in his final game at Michigan, scoring 19 points in 27 minutes before being sent off for a below-the-belt kick on Wolverines big man Vlad Goldin. His 13.7 points per game is third on the team. Although he technically starts at point, he tries to score more than facilitate. He has a breakthrough 3-pointer (36.1 percent) but is an excellent free throw shooter at 85.7 percent.

The 6-foot-2 Ciarvino, a Chicago native, scored 19 points in a recent 18-point loss to Purdue at Mackey Arena.

Berry, a 6-foot-2 fifth-year guard, is a name familiar to Big Ten fans. Ciarvino’s move into the starting lineup was more about getting Berry out of his doldrums, which worked. After scoring a total of five points in losses to Penn State, Purdue and Michigan State, Berry has scored 27 points in the last two games. A career 35.8 percent 3-point shooter, he’s not a player that defenses can leave on the perimeter. On a team that shoots few 3-pointers, Berry leads the Wildcats with 31 shots from distance.

Backup freshman KJ Windham, an Indianapolis native, has just a 7-of-33 success rate on 3s and will play limited minutes but isn’t much of a threat on offense.

Up front, 7-foot fifth-year center Matt Nicholson has the size to keep up with Oumar Ballo. Weighing in at 280 pounds, Nicholson has a team-high 20 blocked shots and is shooting 60 percent from the field. Trying to bully Nicholson in the post won’t work as he’s great at walling up the ball and forcing hard shots at the rim.

Backup big Luke Hunger has missed the last three games with a foot injury and Keenan Fitzmorris was Nicholson’s replacement. Fitzmorris is another 7-footer who played sparingly for two seasons at Stanford before transferring to Stony Brook for two seasons. He had three blocked shots against Maryland’s frontcourt on Jan. 16 and two more blocked shots on Sunday against Michigan in an overtime loss.

SPEED-FREE PREVIEW

The Wildcats have a top-25 defense nationally but have struggled offensively in Big Ten play.

In seven conference games, Northwestern scored 1.015 points per possession, ranking 16th in the league. The Wildcats are the Big Ten’s worst 3-point shooting team (27.7 percent) and are 15th in 2-point field goal percentage (50.2).

Like Indiana, Northwestern hasn’t placed much emphasis on taking 3-point shots. On the season, Northwestern ranks 327th in percentage of points scored from beyond the 3-point line.

Northwestern thrives and can create separation by taking care of the ball and turning opponents over. The Wildcats turn the ball over on 14.9 percent of their possessions and force turnovers on 20.7 percent of their possessions. In 18 games, Northwest opponents turned the ball over an average of 14.2 times per game.

What matters

The KenPom prediction is northwest at four, with a 36 percent chance of an IU win. Bart Torvik’s prediction is four Northwesterners, with a 33 percent chance the Hoosiers win.

The Welsh-Ryan Arena is sold out and should provide a very good atmosphere in a building with just over 7,000 fans.

Despite its 11-7 record, Northwestern has appeared in almost every game this season, including five losses by five points or fewer.

The status of Malik Reneau’s participation in the game is still unknown, as Mike Woodson said Tuesday that he practiced earlier in the week but did not provide specific information about his availability. The most important thing for Indiana will be that Martinelli and Barnhizer can miss their difficult shots, take care of the ball, compete on the glass and finish at the rim.

Submitted to: Northwestern Wildcats