Iran rethinks the confrontation with Donald Trump

For years, a US flag on the bottom of the Iranian presidential ban was strategically located so that visitors step on the way into the stars and stripes.

Shortly before Donald Trump’s inauguration, the flag was removed quietly. There was no official statement by the Iranian officials. But the move has grasped a quiet change in Tehran’s thinking, which has developed around the Iran-Iraq war since the 1980s: With the country at the most susceptible point, the officials hope to avoid confrontation and even strike. A contract with the new president.

The return of her Bête Noire into the White House takes place just as when Iran’s long nuclear spacing with the West comes to a head. It also follows a year of the conflict that has changed the dynamics of power in the Middle East at the expense of Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was encouraged by a number of battlefield gains that changed the Islamic Republic and its regional proxies.

Israel, who exchanged two round Tit-for-Tat strikes with Iran last year, claims to have destroyed a large part of its air defense. Tehran’s main proxy, the Lebanese movement Hisbollah, was weakened; And the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has robbed it of a key ally. In this sense, analysts say that Iran is difficult to sell, to antagonize Trump and to risk more military conflicts with Israel and even the USA.

“It is a very critical year, especially because the strategic context for Iran has changed drastically,” said Vali Nasr, professor at John’s Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “What Iran has lost is a way to manage Israel and. . . The hand is weaker with the Europeans and the Americans. “

The expectation is that Trump, who signed Tehran’s nuclear agreement with the world powers during his first term, will sign back to his hardline guidelines in a “maximum pressure” campaign.

But there are also indications that he may be willing to negotiate. Trump delegated his envoy from Steve Witkoff in the Middle East to investigate whether diplomatic accommodations with Iran are possible, and said last week that “it would be really nice if (tensions about the nuclear program of the Iranian nuclear program) “.

According to western diplomats, the government of Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has had more willingness to agree to a negotiated settlement for weeks in order to secure relief and to facilitate economic pressure, but also because of the weakened position of Iran and the desire to confront the military confrontation with the Avoid the USA and Israel.

But they warn that Iran, if that fails, is on a collision course with the West. The European powers, who pronounced Trump’s maximum pressure during his first term, are angry to the behavior of Iran, including the continued expansion of his nuclear activities, its weapon sales to Russia and the alleged orientation of the citizens in the West.

With the Iranian accumulation of uranium near the arms of the weapons and closer than ever, the ability to produce nuclear bombs to produce bombs that they do not want action.

The “Sunset Clauses” from 2015 will expire in October, which increases the restrictions of the nuclear activities of Iran and actually signals the termination of Moribund Agreement.

If this date approaches, there is a risk to Iran that western powers trigger the so-called snapback process, which would lead to the re-establishment of UN sanctions and further international isolation if there is no alternative deal.

Reformists have started public debates in Iran to put Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the top leader, and the Elite Revolation Guard under pressure and argue that this could be the regime’s last chance to avert a crisis.

Pezeshkian “has the opportunity to take significant steps for Iran,” said Hossein Marashi, a high -ranking reformist politician, during a speech this month. “His first mission should be a new chapter in foreign policy. We no longer have a lever in Lebanon, in Syria or in Iraq. “

However, the Iranian analysts said that Tehran did not want to negotiate from despair.

“Although we oppose the pressure, we will also signal a willingness to negotiate,” said a relative of Khamenei. “Iran is working on minimizing measures that Washington could provoke, even if ultimately no agreement is achieved.”

The relative of Khamenei admitted that Israel’s attacks on Iran and the so -called “axis of resistance” by Tehran supported militant groups, including Hisbollah and Hamas, had prompted Iranian leaders to rate their perception of the Power of the Republic in the Middle East .

But he added that Tehran retains tools to change the battlefield without using: “The Islamic Republic has suffered blows, but there will be no strategic pastry in its domestic and foreign politics.”

“The Iranians do not see themselves as weak in the way they are shown. You have inherent weaknesses, there is no question about it, ”said Nasr. “But they estimate that Trump gives restrictions if he does not follow the diplomatic path and that the risks of a military conflict that the United States cannot control are quite high.”

When Trump implemented his “maximum pressure” strategy against Iran during his first term, the Iranian forces for sabotage attacks on tankers in the Golf and a rocket and drone strike in 2019 were held responsible for the Saudi Ölinfrastructure.

But Trump also showed his unpredictability. After he initially pointed out that he was not ready to take military actions, he ordered the murder of Qassem Soleimani, the most powerful commander in Iran in 2020, and briefly pushed the enemies to the edge of the war.

Some experts said that the blows on the axis that reduced the regional influence of Iran could mean that Tehran would be more willing to conclude a contract with Trump to seek security guarantees that Israel does not attack it.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East program at Chatham House, said Tehran had to quickly invest Trump in a deal to avoid more “maximum pressure” and the risk of other Israeli strikes.

“Without offering anything bigger, you risk a third round of strikes from Israel, which is supported by this US administration,” she said. “What is at stake is the life capability of the regime. The economic sustainability of the regime and its ability to rehabilitate itself and to dismantle legitimacy. “