Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by an experienced football model

It’s Iron Bowl time once again as Alabama and Auburn meet again in one of college football’s most passionate rivalries. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game, which comes from an expert analytical football model that projects results and picks winners.

Alabama may have already withdrawn from the College Football Playoff after last week’s stunning loss to unranked Oklahoma, but there is still some semblance of a path to the playoffs, assuming it can play this game win and also hope for some chaos across the country.

Auburn is one win away from bowl eligibility in head coach Hugh Freeze’s second season, earning a four-overtime win over SEC title contender Texas A&M. He has a chance to end Alabama’s 16-year streak of winning games by double digits.

What do you think will happen when the Crimson Tide hosts the Tigers in the Iron Bowl?

To that end, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to preview how Alabama and Auburn will fare in this Week 14 college football classic.

As expected, the models favor the Crimson Tide over the Tigers, and by a significant margin.

SP+ predicts that Alabama will defeat Auburn by a projected score of 34 to 18 and win the game by an expected margin of 16.2 points.

The model gives the Tide a strong 84 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a win rate of 52.1 after being 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

According to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook in this week’s matchup, Alabama is the 11.5-point favorite against Auburn.

FanDuel lists the overall score for the game as 52.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And the moneyline odds to win outright are -430 for Alabama and +330 for Auburn.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

According to the latest spread consensus picks for the game, many bettors expect the Tigers to come up short against the Crimson Tide.

62 percent of bets assume that Auburn will either win outright in an upset or keep the lead under 12 points in a loss.

The other 38 percent of bets assume Alabama will win the game and cover the double-digit margin.

In addition to SP+, most other football analytics models side with the Crimson Tide over the Tigers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Alabama is the heavy favorite in this year’s Iron Bowl, coming out on top in 87.7 percent of the computer game’s recent simulations.

That leaves Auburn as the presumptive winner of the remaining 12.3 percent of Sims.

How does this translate to the expected margin of victory for the game?

According to the model’s latest projection, Alabama is projected to be 17.4 points better than Auburn with the current makeup of both teams on the same field.

More… Alabama vs. Auburn Prediction: What the Analytics Say

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

Playoff placement does not necessarily correspond to position in the CFP Top 25 rankings, as some teams receive higher rankings as conference champions

Bye in the first round

#1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC Champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC Champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West Champion

First round games

No. 12 Arizona State under
No. 5 Ohio State
The winner will play No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
The winner will play No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
The winner will play No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
The winner will play No. 2 Texas

First team elimination: Clemson

Second team is out: Alabama

When: Sat, November 30th
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Time: 2:30 p.m. central
TV: ABC Network

More… Alabama vs. Auburn: Iron Bowl History, Results, Notable Games

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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