Can Europe guarantee Ukraine’s security without the United States? | NATO messages

The European heads of state and government, which were pushed in London at the weekend, explained that they would work together to bring a plan to end the war in Ukraine. With the safety size, the country guarantees that has been a victim of a full -fledged Russian invasion since February 2022.

The meeting in the United Kingdom followed the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a catastrophic visit to the White House, in which he was publicly insulted by US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance because he had opposed her plans for an unconditional peace plan with Russia.

Trump has made it clear that the United States will not provide security guarantees for Ukraine and asked the Europe’s armed forces to take responsibility instead.

In meetings with Trump in Washington Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron and the British Prime Minister Keir Starrer showed the willingness to send troops as peace troops as peace troops when a deal is achieved to end the Russian war.

But can Europe of Ukraine, without supporting the United States, make sensible safety cover? What are the true security skills in Europe? How dependent is the region of American support? And what threat is Russia?

What role does the United States play in European security?

The United States has been central to European security since the end of World War II, when it contributed to the creation of the North Atlantic Contract Organization (NATO) and hundreds of thousands of soldiers to Europe to challenge the Soviet influence. Since then it has retained this security management and at the same time expanded its global supermach status.

From July 2024, the United States stationed around 65,000 soldiers with active service all over Europe, together with extensive weapons, defense systems and others for NATO of crucial assets.

This includes six weapon supplies presented in Europe, which are equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, eight air squadrons, four navy destructions and an estimated 100 atomic bombs. In addition, the United States has around 10,000 soldiers in rotation in Poland – an essential part of NATO’s eastern flank with Russia.

In order to finance its military muscles, the United States relies on a mammoth defense budget -$ 860 billion in 2024. This is more than twice as high as with all other combined NATO members who have to defend each other in the event of an attack.

At the same time, the United States has provided the majority of direct military aid for Ukraine since Russia entered it in 2022 and sent around $ 65 billion according to the US State Department. According to Ukraine supervision, the United States was assigned to the Ukraine sent by the US government on September 30, 2024, according to the Ukraine supervision, a website created by the US government to send Ukraine sent to Ukraine, about $ 183 billion for Ukraine response. According to the European Commission, the European Union has in turn sent a total amount of $ 141 billion to Ukraine, including $ 51 billion in military support.

However, Trump said that it was now time for the United States to withdraw from Europe militarily and wants her allies to lift more on the continent.

“Strong strategic realities prevent the United States from being concentrated primarily on the security of Europe,” said Trump’s Minister of Defense Pete Hegseth at a meeting of NATO allies on February 12. “European allies have to lead from the front.”

How strong are NATO European allies?

The European members of NATO together have 2 million soldiers with active service, a small part of whom is assigned directly to serve under the command of Allianz. According to NATO’s latest estimates, Turkiye and Poland have most soldiers with 481,000 and 216,000.

France and Germany follow with 205,000 and 186,000 soldiers. The United Kingdom, which offered to send the peace security forces to Ukraine as part of a potential peace agreement, has 138,000 soldiers. NATO itself has a force of around 40,000 in its eastern flank – via Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.

Together, the European allies of NATO have around 7,000 aircraft, 6,800 tanks, 2,170 military ships and six aircraft, such as the global firepower defense index.

How would the NATO tariff deal if the United States scale?

Despite its significant military assets, NATO still strongly depends on the United States will deter the threats in Europe. In the event of a major attack on one of its own, like Russia, NATO would probably expect the United States to hurry to hundreds of thousands of additional troops to Europe, said the Economic Think Tank Broegel.

If Europe can no longer rely on this support, which is improved by the advanced military technology and infrastructure in Washington, Bruegel estimates that the continent would have to create 50 new brigades, each consisting of thousands of soldiers to close the gap.

Overall, the European countries feel the pressure to increase their defense spending.

Last week, the United Kingdom announced that the defense spending to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2027. British Prime Minister Keir Starrer said that this would bring the defense budget, which is currently $ 68 billion, to bring around $ 16 billion. “This government will begin the greatest persistent increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War,” Parliament told Parliament.

Germany had announced a special fund of more than $ 100 billion to improve and strengthen its military after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which contributed to its annual defense budget of around USD 52 billion. Last year, the country’s defense budget met GDP for the first time since the end of the Cold War as part of a NATO goal that plays annexation by the Ukrainian Crimea in 2014. Germany’s alleged next Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, emphasized in a speech in December that the military will need “at least USD 84 billion per year” in the future.

After Russia in 2022 in Ukraine 2022, NATO allies in Europe and Canada increased their expenses by unprecedented 18 percent. At the moment, 22 of the 30 European NATO members in Europe spend at least 2 percent of their GDP for defense, as signed in 2023.

However, Trump has argued that this is not nearly enough and asked the states to increase defense expenditure to at least 5 percent of GDP.

Mark Rutte, General Secretary of NATO, has recognized the need to invest more in Europe. “We have not paid enough in the past 40 years, especially since the Berlin wall has dropped,” said Rutte on February 15 on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. It is totally logical. “

How does Russia see NATO?

Russia has cited NATO’s expansion as one of his reasons for the penetration in Ukraine. Since its foundation in 1949, NATO has grown from 12 to 32 members and is constantly moving east towards Russia’s borders. There are currently six NATO members, four of whom have been in Russia since the turn of the millennium, including Finland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania.

In order to keep the western military alliance in chess, Moscow has demanded that Ukraine, who has long been looking for NATO membership, be held out of the group.

“Otherwise, this problem will continue to poison the atmosphere on the European continent,” said Maria Zakharova spokeswoman for Russia on February 18.

But Western European countries consider Russia’s aggression as the reason to strengthen the block. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia, the world’s largest nuclear power, has penetrated or occupied in parts of several nearby countries – Moldova, Georgia and most recently Ukraine.

Russia’s direct military intervention in Moldova helped in the early nineties that Russian -oriented separatists de facto gain control of the torn region of Transnistria. And Russia’s blasty invasion in Georgia in 2008 provided Tbilisa a strong blow and makes his relationships with the West.

NATO has grown since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022: previously neutral Finland and Sweden have been joined by Allianz in the past two years.

How strong is Russia’s military?

Russia currently has at least 1.32 million soldiers with an active service, hundreds of thousands in Ukraine are fighting. Moscow had previously stationed about 12,000 soldiers in Kaliningrad, the westernmost enclave, that were trapped between the NATO members of Poland and Lithuania. However, most of these forces were reportedly implemented in conflict in Ukraine.

Russia also operates dozens of military facilities in overseas that are the most in former Soviet states. From 2024, at least two main bases in Belarus, two in Kazakhstan, two in Armenia, two in the controversial Georgian territories in southern Socculation and Akhasien as well as one basis in Kyrgyzist, Tajikistan, Kasakhstan- and Moldova porridge, which are the strategic study and international study of the Güstenstudie and in the region, in the region, in the region, in the region Gegrannistria, in the strategic studies of the Güdse, two or two. The largest of these facilities is the military base of the 201. Military in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, which was estimated to have 7,000 Russian soldiers from 2022.

With regard to military assets, Russia has 4,292 aircraft, 5,750 tanks, 449 military ships and an aircraft carrier.

This capacity does not correspond to the combined strength of NATO, but it would be a harder test if the USA would step down, as Trump demanded.

“The Europeans have to wake up,” said Kaja Kallas, foreign policy of the EU foreign policy, at a conference of the European Defense Agency on January 22. The “failure of the continent to invest in military skills”, she said, “sends the attacker a dangerous signal. Shathes invites you.”