MLB Best bets today

MLB Best bets today April 7:

Twenty-two MLB teams are in action on Monday, as we only have one afternoon game and there is a start at 3:10 p.m. between the Yankees and Tigers. The rest of the card will be at night and that should mean cooler temperatures for the outdoor games, of which there are nine of them. The weather looks bad almost all over the line.

We are now turning rotations for the third time, since nine starters make their third starts today and Justin Steele makes his fourth. Since both jugs and rackets feel more comfortable, we have to see who is successful, who finds some who loses it and what other trend lines we appear for the 2025 season.

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This article runs on Monday and Saturday and I will write an independent preview for baseball on Sunday evening on Sundays. This year we also have MLB’s best bets from Greg Peterson with overnight lines.

My tracking leaf is here. For transparency therapy, I also have tracking for my three MLB seasons at VSIN (2024, 2023, 2022). This year I intend to work in more props, derivatives and maybe even in some Parlay bets to have a more diversified MLB portfolio and to attack various markets. What has worked for me in the past has not worked so well in the past two years, so I would like to make some changes, and that suggests my Bet distribution according to the type and market.

The chances come from the Draftkings Sportsbook because they are widespread to readers and due to some of our betting tools. I encourage them very, very much and encourage them very much to buy according to the best lines. Sometimes they are at DK. Often they won’t do it. Do what you can do to buy around and pop as much as possible for your money.

Use my opinions and thoughts as well as our suite of MLB floors, including the Draftkings and Circa -Wett -Splits, Steve Makinen’s daily ratings, Greg Petersons Daily Lines, 1st 5 Inninging Analyzer and referee statistics.

Minnesota Twins in Kansas City Royals (-120, 8)

7:40 p.m. ET

The twins are back on the street because they play their third road series of four games this season. It will be Simeon Woods Richardson on the hill against Michael Lorenzen, as the Royals stay at home after two three of the Orioles.

Woods Richardson showed a newly looking Arsenal in his first trip against the White Sox. He dramatically increased his slider use, which led to a SWTR% of 12.2% and a higher persecution rate than usual. He was faced with a right -hand line -up that played a role, but the plan should be to use the slider more this season and to change more because he has revised this pitch a little.

He gave up a lot of hard contact at this start and had some problems with his speed. So we will see if this is still a problem. But I think the twins are looking for him this season after a few other rashes. Last season he had a touch of more than 20%on all four of his parking spaces. In his first excursion he threw 31 sliders with a touch of 42.9%.

At his first start, Lorenzen allowed an average exit speed of 93.1 miles per hour, as he allowed four runs with five goals over 5.1 innerings. He went three and hit seven against the brewers. Lorenzen was a guy with reverse platoon splits in the past seasons, which means that Righty was problematic for him towards Righty. I think that makes the twins a little matchup.

Both bullpens have used their main helpers lately, but this is just a preliminary for me. I think this game should be more like a 50/50 litter than where. Lorenzen doesn’t have much separation from Woods Richardson, if at all, and I like the twins more.

Selection: twins +100

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners (-166, 7)

9:40 p.m. ET

Hayden Wesneski and Logan Gilbert are the starter listed here, as these two Al West -Rivals come together for the first of 13 meetings of this season. Wesneski, who went to Houston in the Kyle Tucker deal with the Cubs, had no terribly impressive statistics because he allowed three runs with two goals over five innings, but he had six strike outs with three walks and one goal from Pitch.

I thought Wesneski’s Pitch mix and statistics were really interesting in his first excursion. He threw 54.5% of Fastballs, a massive increase compared to what he did with 36% last season. He threw his sweeper in almost 41% of the cases and it was an extremely successful field for him, and the opponents fought with a Coll of 0.348 .174. Interestingly, we also saw an increase in his tendency.

The sweeper had a 43.3% touch of% last season, but he threw it much less in this first start against the Giants. So what I really notice was that he had a SWTR% of 13.6% and only a chase rate of 18.9% with a strike rate of 8%. The persecution rate and CSTR% are both very low. And yet he still had six strikes. For me this is a suboptimal pitch mix for the generation of swings and misses, but he did that.

In today’s Matchup I have the feeling that he will have a adapted pitch mix against a team in Seattle that was susceptible to swinging and a lot is missing. The Mariners of the past year were 29. Only the white Sox were worse. If Wesneski has a better life and a better speed and spin of his fastball, this should increase every piece of his arsenal.

In other words, I like Wesneski over 5.5 strike outs against the Mariners tonight. I have the feeling that we have issued the upgrades of his fastball, and now he will probably use more sliders and sweepers given the matchup. And he had six strikeouts last time.

Selection: Hayden Wesneski (Hou) over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Baltimore Orioles at Arizona Diamondbacks (-125, 8.5)

9:40 p.m. ET

We have a ZAC against ZAC battle in this interleague tendency to chase Field between Eflin and Gallen. Eflin comes in with an ERA of 3.75 and a 4.34 fip in his 12 innings of work, since he has approved five runs with 10 goals with a 7/1 -K/BB ratio against well -known enemies Boston and Toronto. Gallen approved four runs with seven goals over 10.2 Inning with a ratio of 17/4 k/bb when he hit 13 Yankees in his last excursion.

But let’s take a look for these two boys. Let’s start with Eflin, who has 7.1% and 6.7% of 6.7% of his two most frequently used jugs and sink. In both cases, he achieved some cheap back ball results, but he hit a total of 56.8% hard and did not get many persecution hunts outside the zone. He handed over a double -digit run from Barrel in two starts and has approved exit speeds of 92.9 and 95.1 miles per hour on these two parking spaces, not to mention how heavy his sweeper was hit.

Gallen continues to work a lot of hard contact. In his two previous starts, he approved a hard goal of 41.7% and a barrel% of 12.5%. He has a .242 Woba against a .304 Xwoba because the strikes really saved him. Like Eflin, he has given a lot of hard contact on his two primary places. He approved an average exit bike of 94.4 miles per hour on his four-soul and 100.7 miles per hour on his ankle curve, although there were only three back ball events due to all the strike outs.

I do not think that Gallen will find the same K -% success against Baltimore. In addition, he only has 25% GB%, so tempting to fate when the ball is increased against him. Eflins GB% also dropped in his first two starts. So his strike rate is and this is a very strong and dangerous diamondback criminal offense, even without Ketel Marte.

The games in Arizona had an average of 10.7 runs per game last season, since Chase Field seems to be playing as a very good offensive park. With two starters who have some important concerns, I think that we are a bit offensive at the beginning. Both bullpens miss a lot of bats, so I look at the Plus money price early.

Selection: Orioles/Diamondbacks 1st 5 over 4.5 (+110)