How much longer can the Chiefs keep getting away with narrow wins?

The Kansas City Chiefs won again. On Friday they defeated the Las Vegas Raiders 19:17. While most view Kansas City’s 11-1 record as a sign that they are ready to pull off another Super Bowl win, the question now is how long they can keep winning like this.

A win is a win in the NFL, but Friday’s win came despite losing in total yards and gaining fewer first downs. The Raiders outscored a Chiefs offense led by a two-time MVP 434 to 329. And although Patrick Mahomes threw for 306 yards, that production required 46 pass attempts as the team only put up 19 points on the scoreboard.

Mahomes completed just 56.5% of his passes, well below his career average of 66.7%. To be fair to Mahomes, Kansas City’s offensive line allowed five sacks and the ground game covered just 63 yards.

Not every win can be pretty in the NFL, especially at this point in the season, but winning despite poor performances has become the norm for back-to-back Super Bowl champions.

Nine of the Chiefs’ 11 wins have come in close games. To fully illustrate the picture, Kansas City has won those nine games by seven points or less. And after a 30-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills, a team they eliminated multiple times in the playoffs, they have only managed one 30-27 win against the weak Carolina Panthers and this last one against the now 2-10 Raiders to their honor.

For a franchise looking to become the first in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls, the regular season may not be that important, but it’s very unlikely the Chiefs will even get that far again unless they play better .

With five games remaining, Mahomes is already just three interceptions away from matching his 2023 total. His 19 touchdown passes are eight of his 27 from last season and 22 of the 41 he scored in 2022.

Travis Kelce entered the week with 68 catches for 569 yards and two touchdowns, solid numbers for most tight ends but average by his legendary standards. Kelce caught 93 balls for 984 yards last season and has not caught fewer than 90 in a season since 2017 and fewer than 80 since 2015.

It’s always possible that the Chiefs can pull it off at any time, and it certainly wouldn’t be wise to discount an Andy Reid-coached team with Mahomes at quarterback. But despite all that, it’s fair to say the Chiefs had more luck than good in 2024.

The coming weeks will show whether the Chiefs are really good enough to make another run. With the exception of one game against the Browns, the rest of Kansas City’s schedule is full of teams with winning records, highlighted by a Christmas Day showdown with the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

There’s a reason no other NFL dynasty has managed a three-pointer. Time and increasing league parity may be too much for this year’s Chiefs.