Don’t give Maiava too much credit for this winning streak – Annenberg Media

After losing four of the last five games, head coach Lincoln Riley pulled the plug – redshirt junior Miller Moss would no longer start at Trojan quarterback, redshirt sophomore Jayden Maiava. Two games into the Maiava experiment, USC is on a two-game winning streak. The last attempt to salvage a shot at a bowl game worked – the Trojans now have six wins. They’re in.

With only one game left in the regular season against No. 9 Notre Dame, it would be shocking to see anyone other than Maiava at quarterback by the end of the year.

Should it be?

Did his play really warrant the accolades he received after the Nebraska game or the sustained praise he received after a 19-13 win over arch-rival UCLA?

Benching a quarterback isn’t something that can be analyzed on a superficial level, it can have consequences that last for years – rumors are already swirling about where Moss could go. That’s why it’s particularly worth considering: Was Maiava actually an improvement?

Even many of his best pieces tell a troubling story. To set up his first touchdown against Nebraska, Maiava rolled to his right and threw a pass downfield to waiting second-year wide receiver Duce Robinson, who fired the ball over the outstretched arm of a Cornhusker defender.

It sounds beautiful.

This ignores the fact that Robinson had to turn and run back to the ball, which Nebraska senior defensive back Tommi Hill could have easily picked if he had correctly judged where it would land. It suggests it wasn’t the great, bold play many claimed, but rather a prayer recited with a pick-six already on the board.

Surely his second touchdown pass of the game was better, right? Redshirt junior wide receiver Kyron Hudson made a great catch after the ball was deflected by junior defensive lineman Malcolm Hartzog Jr. into Hudson’s chest, back onto Hartzog Jr.’s helmet and into Hudson’s arms. It’s yet another time that Hudson is a potential Catch of the Year.

The highlight, however, wasn’t a great throw. Hudson was open, five yards in front of Hartzog. Maiava’s short throw meant the 5-foot-7 corner still had a chance for an interception. If Hartzog were 5 feet 7 inches tall, the ball might have changed possession.

If even one of those plays goes the other way, which would have required the Cornhuskers to play just slightly better defensively, the game in Nebraska will look very different. Maiava’s pick-six, one of his first throws against the Cornhuskers, might be worse than any throw Moss has made all season.

The UCLA game was concerning in several ways. Gone were the miraculous near picks, replaced by 50/50 balls that were never caught and a complete lack of pocket presence. Maiava didn’t get a single completion on fade or go routes – the majority of the 50/50 balls were planned – which prevented several drives. It ran straight into two bags and also killed shoots.

That doesn’t mean everything was bad.

Against Nebraska, Maiava actually scored two first downs that Moss never could have converted, and the UNLV transfer scored a touchdown on a nearly identical run that nearly gave Moss a concussion against Wisconsin. Against UCLA, he picked up first downs on two scrambles, keeping drives alive that might otherwise have died.

Redshirt-senior running back Woody Marks had room to run, averaging 7.7 yards per carry against Nebraska, making him the first Trojan back with 1,000 rushing yards since Ronald Jones in 2017 – Maiava’s agility undoubtedly helped bring some of to create this scope.

The ball explodes out of his hands in a way that Moss simply doesn’t, allowing Makai Lemon a 30-yard bomb against UCLA that Moss wouldn’t finish, and numerous notable throws on the Escape.

This is to say that it is not enough.

The agility, which has undoubtedly contributed to a slight improvement in the running game, has rarely been used as more than a threat – Maiava has only been asked for two runs in two games. The jump in arm strength is nice and has caused the windows to continue to open, but it hasn’t improved the offense. Many plays where Maiava’s arm strength was most important were late throws into closing windows – windows that Moss delivered timely passes to earlier in the season.

As a long-time supporter of Anthony Richardson, I’m perfectly willing to sacrifice efficiency for explosiveness. In an ideal world, the switch to Maiava would have done just that – it would have lost some of the consistent consistency of Moss’ offense, but added enough big plays that it would still end up being a better offense. That’s not what’s happening. The explosive doesn’t explode and the rest of the passing game doesn’t work either.

Under Moss, the Trojans were held under 20 points only by Minnesota — the No. 15-ranked defense in the country. Under Maiava, the Trojans scored 19 points against the No. 80 defense. The Trojans had a quarterback that many, myself included, wanted to see in the red zone early in the season, but USC only made three field goals on three drives , who made it into the five against a UCLA team with the eighth-worst red-zone defense.

Maiava was widely praised for his mediocre performances against the nation’s No. 66 and No. 111 pass defenses. Yes, USC won those games, but did they really seem like games that Moss wouldn’t have won with more of a margin? Would the games against UCLA and Nebraska with Moss have been the next Maryland- and Washington-style losses, or would they have been Wisconsin- and Rutgers-style victories?

Since the games were close despite increasing offensive problems, I would highly recommend the latter. Maiava led shots on goal late, which Moss struggled to do. However, he wouldn’t have needed those points if he had consistently led a strong offense throughout the game.

Now the quarterback who led those narrow victories against rudderless teams faces the No. 1 pass defense in the country. It appears to be a recipe for USC’s first multi-score loss of the season.

I’ve cheered for USC my whole life. It takes more effort than I’d like to admit to put on my impartial media hat and take off the USC hat I’ve worn every day since ninth or 10th grade, the hat I’ve worn at every home game since then , wore the 2018 homecoming game (a loss to Cal) – a streak that would have lasted even longer if I hadn’t missed that year’s Arizona State game to win the ACT – the hat that has been worn since Kedon Slovis saw a score on every home game, including the opening touchdown against Oregon in 2019, before being ground to a pulp.

I want the Trojans to succeed. I want to watch through cardinal and gold glasses. I want to be happy about their win and not have to live in a world where they barely managed to qualify for the bowl. When I wear my USC hat, I see the vision. I see Maiava heading down in cardinal and gold. I see exciting circus catches and a thriving running game. I see a team that kept fighting when it mattered most and managed to win two games by one point.

It’s only when I put my impartiality hat back on that I start to worry. I see touchdowns that would be interceptions if the defender had played the ball correctly. I see several drives stall because Maiava couldn’t hit sophomore wide receiver Zachariah Branch on a zig route. I see tough catches that should be easy and a running game that really doesn’t look any different than it did under Moss at the end of the day. I see a team that might have blown another late lead against Nebraska if a blatant layup had been called for, and a defense that eventually stopped a fourth-and-10 late to win a second game. I see a team killing their offense to keep hope alive.

You can’t lead a team on hope – this isn’t a TV show and Lincoln Riley isn’t Jason Sudeikis. You can’t make hiring decisions based on fandom. When I look at this team without including my personal history, I can’t help but be more worried about their future than I was two weeks ago.