Who will win the Iron Bowl and why?

Here’s what to look for when Alabama and Auburn face off in the 2024 edition of the Iron Bowl, one of college football’s biggest rivalries, with our updated prediction for the game.

Alabama appears to have pulled itself out of the College Football Playoff after last week’s shocking 24-3 loss at unranked Oklahoma, raising questions about the state of the program under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer , raises.

And while there’s still technically a path for the Crimson Tide to crack the top dozen, it’s a long and winding road that brings a number of other upsets across the country this weekend.

Auburn earned a signature four-overtime win over SEC title contender Texas A&M and, at 5-6, is one win away from bowl eligibility, which the team would like to earn at Alabama’s expense.

What can we expect when the Crimson Tide welcome the Tigers to the Iron Bowl this weekend?

Here’s what to look for when Alabama and Auburn face off in this Week 14 college football rivalry classic.

1. On the ground. Jarquez Hunter remains the primary offensive weapon for Auburn. The tailback has rushed for 1,174 yards and scored 8 touchdowns this season. He recently played his best football in signature wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M.

Hunter rushed for a career-high 278 yards, scored twice against UK and had a season-best three touchdowns against the Aggies. This year he is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.

Auburn is 4-0 this season when Hunter rushes for at least 100 yards and 1-6 when he doesn’t. That’s the magic number that Alabama, which ranks 63rd in rush defense, should pay attention to.

2. In the air. Auburn’s offense has been derailed by turnovers too often this season, but over the last three games it has averaged more than 281 passing yards per game.

Payton Thorne has impressed during that span, completing nearly 65 percent of his pass attempts and throwing eight interceptions and just one pick while rushing for more than 300 yards in consecutive games.

But now he’s throwing against an Alabama pass defense that comes into the game ranked second in the SEC in total yards and per pass and has intercepted 14 passes this season.

3. QB Questions. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been an integral part of the team’s offensive success due to his dynamic dual-threat ability, but his performances have been intermittent this season and he was particularly poor this past weekend.

Milroe had no touchdowns, 7 total rushing yards, and he threw three interceptions, one of which was returned for a score, in that stunning, playoff-killing result against Oklahoma.

On the other hand, he was almost solely responsible for saving Alabama’s season as he rushed for 185 yards and 4 touchdowns in an effective playoff elimination game at LSU.

Joining the SEC’s seventh overall defense, Auburn will need to generate plenty of pressure early to knock Milroe out of the game, but the unit struggled to contain Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed, who enjoyed a career day while playing against the group last week .

According to updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for the Iron Bowl game, Alabama is the 10.5-point favorite against Auburn.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 52.5 points (over -110, under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Alabama at -400 and Auburn at +310 to win overall.

Without all those turnovers, Auburn’s offense could have looked the same all season as it did last week against the Aggies, especially with the type of receiver talent it needs to take advantage of.

But this time it could be the running game that the Tigers rely on more, using Hunter to wear down the Tide defense like Oklahoma did on the ground a week ago and even getting quarterback Payton Thorne more involved on the ground , to help wear down the clock and keep Bama off the field.

That could be a problem for an Alabama defense that has injuries at linebacker and may be limited in its ability to use forces to fill those gaps and keep Auburn from gaining momentum early on the football.

Milroe’s issues are concerning, but a lot of what went wrong last week can also be attributed to his receivers not giving him all the help they could, especially in that pick-six.

There’s still enough of a talent gap between these two teams to realistically compete against the Tide, especially at home, and Milroe played his best football when he had to.

Alabama, which ranks second nationally with 25 takeaways, plays right into Auburn’s biggest weakness, where it ranks 114th in giveaways this season (26).

Still, the Tigers’ newfound offensive confidence is enough to give this team a 10-point lead over a very inconsistent Alabama team whose dashed playoff hopes could be dampening their motivation.

College football headquarters chooses…

More… Alabama vs. Auburn score prediction by an experienced football model

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1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

Playoff placement does not necessarily correspond to position in the CFP Top 25 rankings, as some teams receive higher rankings as conference champions

Bye in the first round

#1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC Champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC Champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West Champion

First round games

No. 12 Arizona State under
No. 5 Ohio State
The winner will play No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
The winner will play No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
The winner will play No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
The winner will play No. 2 Texas

First team elimination: Clemson

Second team is out: Alabama

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When: Sat, November 30th
Where: Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Time: 2:30 p.m. central
TV: ABC Network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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