If they don’t make the playoffs, that means the Bucs are suffocated come December

TAMPA — Let’s skip the intricacies, shall we?

Let’s not give in to the deception of the NFL that lies before us every Sunday and let’s not pretend that we see challenges in a schedule full of ambiguity.

The Bucs should make the playoffs. It’s that simple.

Yes, they are going into the weekend with a loss. Yes, they lost 2-0 to their main rival, the NFC South. Yes, their error rate is anything but low.

But if everything goes as expected, the Bucs will go to bed on Sunday night with a postseason spot just inches away from them.

“Our playoffs started last week,” head coach Todd Bowles said. “We just have to put our heads down and take care of ourselves. And in the end, if we look up and take care of ourselves, we’ll be fine.”

Here’s what Bowles says without saying the rude part out loud:

The Bucs are better than at least five of the six remaining teams on their schedule. They are favorites against the Panthers on Sunday. They will be favored against the Raiders (and their backup quarterback) the following week, they will likely be favored against the Cowboys (and their backup quarterback) on December 22nd, they should be favored against the Panthers on December 29th and on January 29th will be favored. 5 against the Saints. The only acceptable loss left on the schedule is at the hands of the Chargers on December 15th.

If the Bucs win the games they are expected to win, they will finish 10-7.

The Falcons, on the other hand, need an upset against either the Chargers (on Sunday), the Vikings (December 8) or the Commanders (December 29) to ensure a 10-7 record that would secure the division win in the tiebreaker .

Would you feel more comfortable as a Tampa Bay fan or an Atlanta fan now?

This is not a funny question. Coming into December, the Falcons have the better record (6-5 vs. 5-6) and the ultimate tiebreaker (a 2-0 record against the Bucs). But Tampa Bay has a much easier schedule down the stretch and the Falcons are 2-4 outside of the division.

That’s why Bowles didn’t panic during the four-game midseason losing streak. And that’s why he turned up the playoff talk before playing the Giants.

“He told us last week before the game started,” cornerback Zyon McCollum said. “He said the playoffs, those must-win games, started (last) week. Starts right away. And I think the whole locker room accepts that, takes that energy and brings it to the field.

“There is no repeat. You can make a mistake at the start of the season and then have the rest of the season ahead of you. This is over. Unless we want to be back home at the end of December, we have to act now.”

If this all seems counterintuitive, I get it. A 4-6 record, which the Bucs had before beating New York, is not the usual path to a playoff run. In fact, in the Super Bowl era, fewer than 10% of teams that started with a 4-6 record made it to the postseason. But there is a caveat. Only 4.5% made the playoffs from 1966 to 1977, albeit on a 14-game schedule. When the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule, the percentage of 4-6 teams recovering for the playoffs increased to 7.7%.

And since 2021, when the playoff field was expanded to 14 teams and a 17th game was added to the schedule, four out of 10 teams (40%) have made the playoffs after a 4-6 start. That’s a small sample size, but it’s still an indication that a slow start is no longer a deal breaker.

The key is that the Bucs can’t afford another misstep. They can’t stumble this week against the Panthers or next week against the Raiders.

If they are shut out of the postseason for the first time since 2019, it will ultimately be on them. Either it’s because of an unexpected loss in December or because they stifled when they had a chance to beat the Falcons in Atlanta in early October. In total, the Bucs lost three times in the final game.

“We had a lot of close games before the bye week,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said. “This error rate? We were on the wrong side and hurt ourselves badly. I think we watch these games, learn from them and move on.”

The Bucs were in a similar situation last season and pulled it off. They started 4-7 but won five of their last six games to win the division. The difference is that in 2023 they were just one game away from the division lead. This year, they are essentially two games behind the Falcons due to the tiebreaker and have six games left to play.

It’s doable. Based on the strength of the schedules it should happen.

As long as the Bucs don’t screw up.

John Romano can be reached at [email protected]. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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