Silver (XAG) Forecast: Can the $30.44 Pivot Push Silver Prices Higher as the Jobs Report Looms?

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a high of 108.071 earlier this month before retreating to close at 105.782, down 1.59% for the week. While this decline eased pressure on silver late in the week, the dollar’s overall strength in November weighed heavily on the metal. A strong dollar typically makes silver less attractive to international buyers, and core PCE data underscored ongoing inflation concerns that kept the dollar relatively elevated.

Will geopolitical and economic events change the dynamic?

Geopolitical developments, such as President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada, are increasing the volatility of the outlook. Trade tensions have historically favored silver, which is beneficial as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty. On the economic front, the upcoming US jobs report is crucial. With nonfarm payrolls expected to rise to 220,000, a weaker-than-expected reading could reinforce interest rate cut expectations, weaken the dollar and potentially support silver. Conversely, stronger labor market data could increase downward pressure on the metal.

What’s next for silver prices?

The near-term outlook for silver remains cautious as dollar strength and uncertain Federal Reserve policy continue to weigh on prices. A weaker dollar or further decline in Treasury yields could allow a rally towards $32.26 and potentially lead to an upside breakout. However, a break below $29.64 could open the door to bigger losses, with the target set at $29.00. This week’s U.S. jobs data will likely set the tone for December as traders brace for increased market volatility.

For more information, see our economic calendar.