A wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow is possible in the Florida Panhandle

So far this winter, Florida is the only state in the contiguous United States to experience no snowfall despite the coldest temperatures in years.

There’s now a chance of snow thanks to a series of winter storms forming across the central and eastern United States over the weekend.

The National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola office said in its latest area forecast discussion that a “wintry mix,” meaning a mix of rain, sleet and snow, is possible when precipitation returns closer to Tuesday.

European and Canadian global models also show a very low chance of snow (10-20%) in a diagonal band extending across the northernmost portions of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and the smallest portion of Holmes Counties in Florida.

The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows a low chance of snow (10-20%) in the Florida Panhandle

It might snow in Florida, but it’s definitely not rain. According to AccuWeather, the West Florida Panhandle will experience significant rain and possible thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday evening.

Winter storms will bring heavy rains to the Florida Panhandle

Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to move across the Pensacola area Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will be above normal, so no snow is expected either day, according to the National Weather Service.

AccuWeather reports that the first of two eastern storms will bring heavy downpours across most of the western Florida Panhandle, from Pensacola to Holmes County.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast across the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week.

The coldest air of the season will reach Florida Sunday evening

The schedule for when Florida will be hit by below-freezing temperatures has accelerated, with temperatures dipping into the 20s on Sunday evening.

The ice-cold air from the oncoming cold front will also last longer than initially expected. AccuWeather’s long-range forecast shows low temperatures below freezing through Thursday in the Panhandle, where the coldest temperatures will prevail.

The eastern areas of Florida that are normally affected by this polar air will not feel the same effects. The coldest night in Jacksonville will be Sunday, with a low of 38 degrees. Lows will hover in the lower 40s throughout the week before falling into the upper 30s on Thursday.

Central Florida will experience a rollercoaster of temperatures this weekend and into next week. It will warm up to 78 degrees on Saturday before dropping more than 20 degrees on Monday, with a high of 56 degrees forecast. Then temperatures will climb up to 60 degrees for the rest of the week.

South Florida will remain relatively warm, with temperatures remaining in the upper 70s throughout the week.

When might Pensacola see snow?

Forecasters will have a more confident idea of how likely Florida could see snow by Friday. Based on current information, the best chance of snow in the Florida Panhandle is between Tuesday and Thursday.

Low temperatures will be just below freezing and the chance of precipitation will gradually increase throughout the week. Of course, it’s not just cold air and some moisture that cause snow.

Why is snow so rare in Florida?

The most basic answer is that freezing temperatures in Florida tend to be caused by cold fronts, which generally produce dry air.

Florida’s best chance of seeing snow is if a storm draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air moves in from the north. Of course, as the cold air moves south, it likely pushes moisture away from Florida, hence the mystery.

The more complicated reason why snow is rare in Florida is why the above scenario is so necessary.

Almost everything about Florida, from its geography to its proximity to the equator, affects the conditions necessary for snow.

The warm temperatures in Florida are the first problem. The second problem is that Florida, the Sunshine State, gets a lot of sunlight due to its proximity to the equator. That sunlight and warmer temperatures tend to keep cold air out, preventing it from accumulating in sufficient quantities for snow to form.

Florida is also a fairly flat state and its highest point, Britton Hill, is only about 345 feet above sea level. This means there aren’t many places to hang out when the air is cold.

Finally, there is the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is a relatively warm body of water and acts as a major temperature moderator for Florida.

What does it take for snow to form?

The conditions required to produce snow are typically generalized. Most people know that the temperature must be no more than 32 degrees, which is considered the freezing limit for water. However, this is not the only situation in which snow can form.

Even at temperatures up to 33.8 degrees, snow can still form. There are cases where a higher layer of the atmosphere is slightly above freezing point and the snowflake begins to melt as it passes through this layer, but can still reach the ground as snow.

Another special case is called the “wet bulb” effect. The wet bulb temperature is the temperature that air reaches when water in it evaporates. Snow can still form if the altitude at which the wet bulb temperature reaches freezing is less than 5,000 feet (1,500 m) above ground level.

A wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow is possible in the Florida Panhandle

ByAmelia Journalton

Winter storms will bring heavy rains to the Florida Panhandle

The coldest air of the season will reach Florida Sunday evening

By Amelia Journalton

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