Alabama against the CFP candidates, plus a comeback in the coaching carousel

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The college football December madness has begun. The playoffs, the coaching carousel, National Signing Day and the transfer portal are in action. We’ll catch up on most of them today.

Rating overview

How Bama could still miss the CFP

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were released yesterday. This is what the table would look like until last Saturday:

First out? Miami, Long, the fourth seed in this scheduled bracket, fell from the field after losing its season finale to Syracuse. The Hurricanes also lost their chance at the ACC title, so SMU and Clemson meet this weekend in Charlotte.

Who is there? Alabama jumped back into the picture for a general bid. The three-loss Crimson Tide are ranked No. 11 by the committee, which would put them in 11th place with a first-round game at Notre Dame.

Committee Chairman Warde Manuel said yesterday that the committee will not reshuffle the teams not playing this weekend, but Alabama enters championship weekend on thin ice. All that’s left for the Crimson Tide to do is sit at home and hope someone doesn’t steal the bidder. Speaking of…

Bid thieves to keep an eye on: The committee finally got it right by giving SMU a potential 3-seed and a first-round bye. But that depends on the Mustangs proving it this weekend. Clemsonranked No. 17 by the committee, would enter the ACC Championship with a win. That could put Alabama — or even SMU, although it would break with the committee’s tradition of limiting the penalty for losing conference title games — in jeopardy.

In the mountain west, UNLVRanked No. 20 by committee (second-highest among G5 teams), Boise State must beat to win the conference championship and a playoff spot. By the way, that’s only a four-point spread at BetMGM. If that happens, will current No. 10 Boise, whose only current loss is a three-game loss to No. 1 Oregon, still be at large?

Best hypothetical first-round matchup: 9th-seeded Tennessee vs. 8th-seeded Ohio State. What happened to the Buckeyes after last week’s devastating loss to The Team Up North? They have fallen four spots in the rankings and have a chance to be the lowest-seeded first-round host.

That would put them in line with the Vols this week. Tennessee and Ohio State have met only once before, in the 1996 Citrus Bowl with Buckeyes Heisman winner RB Eddie George and Tennessee sophomore QB Peyton Manning. The Vols won 20-14.

If Ohio State were to win in this round, there would still be a rematch with Oregon. And we could really get it three rounds of Texas vs. Georgia?

Further analysis can be found here.

Happy Early Signing Day!

Yes, that’s earlier than usual

With the conference championships coming up this weekend and the first-ever 12-team CFP just around the corner, it’s easy to forget that today is the start of college football’s early signing period. Texas tops the 247Sports Composite class rankings, and No. 1 recruit QB Bryce Underwood recently transferred to Michigan from LSU.

Here are three general things you need to know to prepare. Also read the full introduction to Antonio Morales’ signing day here:

• Is this earlier than usual? Yes. Last March, the Collegiate Commissioners Association decided to move the period from the third Wednesday in December to the first in order to clear out the crowded December calendar (coaching carousel, postseason preparation, transfer portal, etc.).
• What happened to the national declarations of intent? The Division I Council agreed to eliminate them and move forward with “written offers of athletics support.” In theory, it is intended to protect programs from allowing prospects to turn around before they enroll. But according to recruiters, it just means less paperwork.
• Stay prepared for changes: There have already been more than 500 decommitments this recruiting cycle, according to a 247Sports database. So how exactly does a flip happen? As Grace Raynor has learned in conversations with players, coaches and recruiting staff, the art of a flip involves a lot of jargon that’s more common in the dating world. “You put in so much time that when they break up, it’s almost like a breakup,” one Big Ten recruiter said. Read the full story here.

Coaching Carousel Update

Review of the latest openings

There were 20 open FBS head coaching positions in this cycle, five of which were filled. Here is a running list as of Tuesday evening:

And here are my grades for each Power 4 opening as a goal:

North Carolina: B+ (Full job profile)

• Who’s outside? Mack Brown, after his second stint with the Tar Heels. The UNC job was the first Power 4 opening of this cycle.
• Pros: This is the best job on the market right now. Recruiting has a high ceiling and UNC has a long track record of developing successful quarterbacks. The investment is there, too — UNC ranks third in the ACC in football spending, behind Florida State and Clemson.
• Disadvantages: UNC has not won an ACC title since 1980. Since 1998, it has only had more than 10 wins once. The potential is there, but the story was almost always surprisingly mediocre.
• Candidates: Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has long been slated for a Power 4 job. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann is Kirby Smart’s right-hand man and has been lobbying for head coaching jobs.

Purdue: B (Full job profile)

• Who’s outside? Ryan Walters was fired a day after his Boilermakers’ 66-0 loss to Indiana capped a historically poor season. Walters posted a 5-19 record over two years.
• Pros: The administration is stable and Purdue’s Big Ten status suggests it should be able to pay well (but it paid Walters a low salary of $4 million).
• Disadvantages: The outlook on the field seems bleak, as Purdue just finished as the worst Power 4 team and is suffering from an identity crisis.
• Candidates: Army Chief of Staff Jeff Monken has the Black Knights close to an AAC title this year. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has remained loyal in the past, but limited resources have caught up with the Demon Deacons this season. Maybe he’s ready for a change of scenery.

West Virginia: B (Full job profile)

• Who’s outside? Neal Brown, after six seasons and a 37-25 record.
• Pros: The program has a history of success, having missed a bowl game just four times since 2002. However, there was a recent blip — the Mountaineers are just one of three Power 4 programs that haven’t cracked the top 25 since 2018 — the tradition is there.
• Disadvantages: The university is in turmoil. Enrollment fell below 25,000 this fall, and President E. Gordon Gee plans to retire when his contract expires next June.
• Candidates: Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez He was WVU’s head coach from 2001 to 2007, going 60-26. Would he want to return? Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton has achieved consistent success despite numerous fluctuations among coaches and players.

UCF: B. The analysis is done via The athleteMatt Baker:

• Who’s outside? Gus Mahlzan resigned to join Mike Norvell’s Florida State team as offensive coordinator.
• Pros: Potential. It’s a power program in the middle of one of the top four soccer states in the country. It also has an identity that fits the area.
• Disadvantages: Youth. The program has gone from Division III to Power 4 in less than 50 years. It’s relatively new to the Big 12 and there are still some growing pains there, financially, depth, etc.
• Candidates: Former UCF head coach Scott Frost (currently an analyst for the Los Angeles Rams) was someone fans immediately started talking about. Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell is the name we last heard.

Quick snapshots

Caution: College football programs that change coaches should maintain their identity…or suffer like Purdue.

Officially Heisman Trophy Voting opened this week and the finalists will be announced on Monday. Travis Hunter received every first place vote The athlete‘s straw poll this week.

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(Top photo: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)