Alabama CFP viewing guide: How every conference championship game impacts the Tide

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. – If the College Football Playoff began tomorrow, Alabama would be in the 12-team field. The updated rankings were released Tuesday night and Alabama is at No. 12, which would put the Tide at No. 11 in the rankings with a game against No. 6 Notre Dame in the first round of the playoffs.

Even more important than the rankings is that the teams behind Alabama – Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina – have no chance of gaining a lead.

“Teams that are not playing cannot be adjusted by comparing them to other teams that are not playing,” said CFP Committee Chairman Warde Manuel.

Why Alabama is one spot ahead of Miami: “(Alabama) is 3-1 against current top-25 teams and Miami is 0-1. Alabama is 6-1 against teams over .500 and Miami is 4-2. They both had some losses in those games that were not what they expected, but in the last three games Miami has lost twice.”

Here’s what the 12-team College Football Playoff field would look like based on the latest rankings 👀 pic.twitter.com/QL781Y64wG

– The Athlete (@TheAthletic) December 4, 2024

Over the past few days, it has been a concerted effort to advance Alabama’s agenda. On Monday, athletic director Greg Byrne presented a custom graphic of Alabama’s positive analysis, including opponent win percentage (second nationally), strength of schedule (tenth) and offensive/defensive/special teams efficiency (fourth in ESPN efficiency ratings ).

Here’s a good look at the numbers/rankings for @AlabamaFTBL. Note that there is a lot of talk about 2v3 losing teams, but that is just one factor. If you look at that @CFBPlayoff Principles for his selection committee, the first bullet point on the list of… pic.twitter.com/EGrp7pVbaA

– Greg Byrne (@Greg_Byrne) December 3, 2024

On the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, coach Kalen DeBoer said: “I think we have all the characteristics that you need as a team.” We have the explosiveness. We have the physicality. … We’re the place to be when it comes to playing at a championship level.”

Offensive lineman Tyler Booker on The Next Round on Monday: “The schedule we played, the talent we have on the roster, I definitely think we’re a top 12 team. Our record may not be the best, but when Alabama plays we will be one of the twelve best teams.”

Now Alabama watches and waits to see how conference championship weekend unfolds. Each game has varying degrees of impact on Alabama, from seeding to potential matchups. Here is the Alabama CFP viewing guide that puts the importance of each game in perspective and lays out the ideal scenario for Alabama:

Effects: Significant

Ideal result: SMU win

That’s the game. The situation is simple: SMU wins, Alabama is there. Clemson wins, it will be interesting. Clemson is a bid stealer. So if the Tigers win the ACC, they automatically secure a spot and send SMU into the at-large pool. The Mustangs are ranked No. 8 (and are seeded No. 3). So will the committee throw them out of the field entirely with a loss? Here’s what Manuel said about that possibility in Tuesday night’s media conference: “Potentially yes.”

It might depend on how the game turns out.

The case for Alabama was presented by the committee. The case for SMU would be an 11-2 record, undefeated in ACC play (regular season) and its only loss to No. 18 BYU in the regular season by just three points.

Alabama vs. SMU. …What would the committee do? Alabama should cheer loudly for SMU and hope they don’t find out.

Effects: Moderate

Ideal result: Depends on preference

In this game there are two teams that will make it to the playoffs regardless of the result. The question is, if Oregon wins, will Penn State fall behind Notre Dame? If so, those teams would trade places and Alabama would travel to Penn State. If the Nittany Lions pull off an upset, Alabama would travel to Notre Dame as Oregon would fall to No. 5.

Would Alabama rather face Notre Dame or Penn State?

Effects: Minimal

Arizona State and Iowa State trail Alabama in the committee’s rankings. The fact that they are behind Alabama means whoever wins will likely still fall behind Alabama in the final rankings.

Effects: Significant

Ideal result: Georgia wins

If Clemson beats SMU and there is an Alabama-SMU debate, a win over the SEC champion would be a big boost for the Tide’s resumption. That 41-34 result is the crown jewel of Alabama’s resume, so a Georgia win would make this arguably the best win of any team in the country.

A Georgia loss would weaken this somewhat and impact the teams’ placement in the bottom half of the 12-team field. Could this lend itself to Alabama-Georgia II, this time in Athens?

Effects: Moderate

Ideal result: Boise State win

Similar to the ACC scenario: a Boise State win keeps things in check for Alabama, but a UNLV upset drops Boise State into the overall pool.

The case for Boise State: 11-2 overall with an average margin of victory of 19.2 points per game, a 38-35 loss to Oregon and wins over Oregon State and Washington State. Oh, and Ashton Jeanty’s star appeal doesn’t hurt.

The fewer teams Alabama has in comparison on Selection Sunday, the better.

Effects: Minimal

This game only has CFP relevance if UNLV upsets Boise State. Then there will be a conversation between the American champions and UNLV for the place in the Group of 5.

(Photo: Gary Cosby Jr. / Imagn Images)