Alabama or Miami? Resolving the final dilemma of the College Football Playoff berths

Miami or Alabama?

The College Football Playoff committee will address that question in the final rankings before the 12-team field is announced on Dec. 8.

Miami was ranked No. 6 in last week’s rankings before the Hurricanes suffered a 42-38 loss to Syracuse in the regular-season finale. Miami finished 10-2 and missed a chance to play in the ACC Championship Game. The Hurricanes are ranked No. 14 in the current AP poll, which is at least a barometer for the rankings.

Alabama ranked 13th in last week’s CFP rankings. The Crimson Tide ended the regular season with a 28-14 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide finished the regular season 9-3 and missed the SEC Championship Game. The Crimson Tide is ranked No. 11 in the current AP Top 25 poll, three spots ahead of Miami.

Will this also be the case in the final rankings? Let’s take a look at the schedules, rankings and arguments for each team in a heated head-to-head matchup.

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Alabama’s strength in schedule

Here’s a look at Alabama’s schedule, what their best wins looked like then, what they look like now, and the losses on their schedule:

Who they played: The Crimson Tide’s opponents have a combined record of 92-52 – a winning percentage of .638. That record drops to 82-50 and a winning percentage of .621 when you take Mercer — an FCS school — off the schedule. Alabama’s non-conference FBS opponents have a combined record of 19-17.

Who they hit: The Crimson Tide beat four teams that were ranked at the time, including a 41-34 win over Georgia – which is ranked No. 5 in the current AP poll. The Bulldogs and South Carolina — now ranked 13th — are currently the best wins on the schedule, and the win over 22nd-ranked Missouri is the third win against a 13th-ranked team.

Who they lost to: Alabama lost road games at Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Oklahoma. The Vols are ranked No. 6 and are a safe team to be an overall team. The Commodores and Sooners finished the game 6-6. Alabama’s 24-3 loss to Oklahoma is the worst blip on their resume.

Miami’s strength in schedule

Here’s a look at Miami’s schedule, what their best wins looked like then, what they look like now, and the losses on their schedule:

Who they played: The Hurricanes’ opponents have a record of 73-71 – a winning percentage of .506. That record drops to 66-66 and a .500 winning percentage if Florida A&M – an FCS school – is defeated. Miami’s non-conference FBS opponents have a combined record of 15-21.

Who they hit: The season-opening win against Florida – an SEC school – looks better now. Miami defeated five bowl-eligible teams, including Duke and Louisville. The Gators, Blue Devils and Cardinals are among the teams receiving votes in the AP poll. Will any of them slip in the CFP rankings?

Who they lost to: The Hurricanes have road losses at Georgia Tech and Syracuse – teams with a combined record of 16-8. It hasn’t helped that Miami has lost two of its last three games and has no automatic path to the playoffs.

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The best argument for Alabama

“SEK! SEK!” The Crimson Tide can lean on the strength of schedule argument, and the win against Georgia is a strong trump card in that argument.

The SEC as a league went 13-7 in matches against other Power 4 conferences. The ACC was 9-17. The SEC was 8-3 against the ACC.

Miami had two losses against a weak schedule and could have had more. What about the controversial Hail Mary call against Virginia Tech? The near loss at Cal? Miami’s best win might be Duke. Is this really playoff-worthy?

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The best argument for Miami

This is still Miami’s best season under third-year coach Mario Cristobal, and the losses have come to teams with good records. Georgia Tech nearly beat Georgia in an eight-overtime thriller. Cam Ward leads an offense that leads the FBS with 44.2 points per game.

In a Power 4 conference, will you let a two-loss team play a three-loss team? How many mulligans can a team get based on brand value? The losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma are bad, and the Crimson Tide have been inconsistent this season under first-year coach Kalen DeBoer.

Verdict: Who will win the battle between Alabama and Miami?

Tonight’s rankings will be crucial, as there is logically no room for either team to change once those rankings are determined before Sunday. We expect Alabama to close the seven-place gap on Miami and move ahead of the Hurricanes, which would put the Crimson Tide into the College Football Playoff if SMU beats Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.

If the Tigers beat the Mustangs, Alabama could be sidelined in favor of SMU, which finished the regular season undefeated in ACC play and would have a compelling case as a two-loss team.

Miami is eliminated due to its second loss to Syracuse, and this will be the second straight year Alabama makes the playoffs ahead of an ACC school. This is not the same argument Florida State made last year. The Seminoles were 13-0 but were eliminated due to a season-ending injury to quarterback Jordan Travis. Alabama made it into the four-team College Football Playoff with one loss after defeating No. 1 Georgia in the SEC championship game instead.

However, the committee will field a fourth SEC team in place of a second ACC team when the opportunity arises. Is this the correct precedent?