Alabama’s College Football Playoff odds are changing drastically according to the latest rankings

Less than two weeks ago, Alabama suffered a 21-point loss to unranked Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide’s chances of making the College Football Playoff appeared hopeless until the latest CFP rankings were released Tuesday night.

Alabama jumped from No. 13 to No. 11 after beating Auburn, giving the Tide a likely first-round matchup with Notre Dame. Conference championship weekend could shake up the standings before the CFP field is finalized on Sunday, but for now, coach Kalen DeBoer’s team is there.

As of Monday morning, Alabama’s odds to win the national championship were at +2200 at BetMGM. At the best online sports betting providers, the odds for Alabama are now between +1000 and +1600. In the FanDuel “To Make the Playoffs” market, the Crimson Tide are at -400 for Yes and +285 for No. The odds of -400 have an implied probability of 80%.

How is Alabama a CFP qualifier despite a 9-3 record?

The obvious answer is to expand the College Football Playoff to a 12-team format. In previous seasons, when only four teams qualified for the CFP, the Crimson Tide would have been eliminated after losing to Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

The lack of national championship contenders for the ACC and Big 12 opens up spots in the CFP for a three-loss team like Alabama. In the final CFP round, the only representatives from each conference were the favorites to win the conference championships.

The chaos that ensued during the rivalry weekend was also a big help for the Tide. Clemson was No. 12 before losing to South Carolina, and the Tigers fell to No. 17. Alabama also passed Miami after the Hurricanes lost to Syracuse as a 12.5-point favorite.

Miami has a better record than Alabama with two losses, but I agree with the selection committee’s decision to exclude the Hurricanes. Miami faced a much easier ACC schedule, narrowly beating inferior teams like Virginia Tech and Cal.

Alabama’s win over No. 14 South Carolina is another deciding factor. The Gamecocks appear to be better than the Tide after winning their last six games, including three wins over ranked opponents. However, the selection committee cannot ignore the result of a direct duel.

How secure is Alabama’s place in the CFP?

Here are the Dec. 4 odds for Alabama to make the College Football Playoff:

• DraftKings: -370
• FanDuel: -400

Clemson represents the biggest threat to the Crimson Tide’s chances of qualifying for the CFP. The Tigers are currently on the outside looking in, but can earn an automatic bid with an ACC Championship win over No. 8 SMU.

If the Mustangs lose, the selection committee would have to choose between SMU and Alabama. It doesn’t seem fair for a conference champion qualifier to lose a spot to a team that didn’t qualify for a conference championship, but that’s what happened last season when Alabama reached the CFP against undefeated Florida State.

Caesars Sportsbook lists SMU as a 2.5-point favorite against Clemson, and Alabama fans should feel good about the Mustangs’ chances of winning. The Tigers’ three toughest matchups (Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina) resulted in losses, and Clemson defeated many inferior teams en route to a 9-3 record.

SMU hasn’t had the toughest schedule either, but its only loss came in Week 2. The Mustangs are coming along well and need a win in the ACC Championship to give the selection committee an easy decision on Alabama’s stay in the CFP give.