Analysis: AQAP praises Shabaab’s activities in East Africa

In the latest issue of its Sada al-Malahem Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) magazine praised the recent operations of Shabaab, Al Qaeda’s East Africa affiliate.

Written by an alleged AQAP foreign fighter named Abdullah Muhammad al-Muhajir, the article begins by praising Shabaab’s recent operations as evidence of jihadist advances in East Africa.

“The Mujahideen Brigades have responded to the call for jihad,” said al-Muhajir, “and continue to deliver deadly blows against government militias and Somali forces trained by the United States (…) and international forces under the umbrella of the African Union “the United Nations.”

Al-Muhajir continues that recent attacks, such as the attack on a Ugandan base in Buulo Mareer in May 2023, which killed at least 50 soldiers of the Uganda People’s Defense Forces, “continue to astonish the international coalition despite its strong fortifications. “the strength of their military arsenal and the availability of air support.”

Referring to the ongoing but stalled counteroffensive against Shabaab in various parts of Somalia, the AQAP author mentions that in response to the offensive, “the soldiers of Tawhid have written historical epics by destroying entire bases of Somali special forces trained “blow up” by the Americans. Neither the Americans nor the Turks nor the African Union could help them.”

The author ends this section by once again praising Shabaab’s “precise planning, strong preparation and careful intelligence gathering” as reasons for its ability to “repel the aggression of the occupation and Western hegemony.”

Expansion beyond Somalia

Al-Muhajir then claims that these victories were not limited to Somalia and that Shabaab expanded jihad throughout East Africa.

“What indicates the level of intensity of the jihadist market in East Africa is that the mujahideen have managed to open a full and active military front in Kenya,” explains al-Muhajir.

He then claims that various attacks in Kenya – where Shabaab has been actively operating for years – have allowed local residents to turn to Shabaab and further strengthen its Kenyan wing. Shabaab operates a special Kenyan wing led by Kenyan-born Ahmed Iman Ali, which has its own military component, Jaysh Ayman.

As a result of the increasing activity in Kenya, al-Muhajir said, “the call to incite believers (to jihad) has also reached Tanzania and neighboring areas.” As a result, al-Muhajir said, Shabaab’s training camps are now full of foreigners, who wanted to join the ranks of the group. However, Shabaab’s current activities in Tanzania and East Africa remain opaque.

In the past, Shabaab had active affiliates in Tanzania, such as Ansar Muslim Youth Center and Al-Muhajiroun, although the current status of both remains compromised. However, Shabaab is still believed to be recruiting Tanzanians into its ranks.

Elsewhere, Shabaab has also recruited Ethiopians, Ugandans, Rwandans and Burundians into its ranks to varying degrees. However, Shabaab remains in fierce competition with the Somali branch of the Islamic State for control and influence over the East African jihad.

The recruitment coordinated by the Islamic State in the Puntland region of northern Somalia for other Islamic State groups, such as the Central African Province of Congo and Uganda, as well as the Mozambique Province, has eroded Shabaab’s market share of foreign recruitment flows in all of the above countries .

“Protect civilians”

Al-Muhajir concludes his article by stating that although the West has demonized Shabaab and its attacks, the group prioritizes protecting civilians and does not actively seek to target them. To illustrate this point, al-Muhajir draws on researchers Jason Warner and Ellen Chapin’s 2018 report on the Shabaab suicide bombings as “evidence” of careful, targeted practices.

As previously described in a 2023 study FDD’s Long War JournalCivilians continue to be among the greatest victims of Shabaab’s violence, particularly victims of its suicide bombing program. Shabaab responded to this study with a claim to the contrary, a claim that was also refuted in an additional article in this publication. In any case, al-Muhajir argues that because the group supposedly protects the lives of civilians, it endears it to the Somali population, which will inevitably help it restore Sharia law in Somalia and throughout East Africa.

AQAP and Shabaab

Although Shabaab remains a major and persistent threat to both Somalia and Kenya, its sister organization AQAP remains relatively weakened compared to its peak in the early to mid-2010s. In the last year, AQAP has lost two key leaders: former emir Khalid Batarfi and Khaled Mohammed Salahaldin Zidane, the son of Sayf al-Adl, considered the current chief emir of al-Qaeda.

On the ground, AQAP has also stepped up military operations against UAE-backed militias and hostile tribal forces in southern Yemen. The United Nations Sanctions and Monitoring Team’s January 2024 report found that AQAP had close ties to Al-Qaeda’s central leadership and Al-Adl in particular. However, after Zidane’s death, this is more unclear.

The UN report also mentioned reported cases in which the Houthis trained AQAP in the use of drones and released AQAP members they had previously arrested. AQAP, for its part, has not claimed attacks on the Houthis for several years.

AQAP also continues to maintain important ties with Shabaab, so al-Muhajir’s article praising the Somali group is less surprising.

For example, the Sanctions and Monitoring Team’s most recent report from July 2024 specifically states: “AQAP has the closest ties to Al-Shabaab; both work together in arms smuggling, personnel movement between Yemen and Africa and in finance. A Member State notes that the port in Shakra, Abyan continues to be used for smuggling and transit with Somalia.”

Thus, al-Muhajir’s article is another data point regarding open support between these al-Qaeda affiliates.

Caleb Weiss is editor of FDD’s Long War Journal and a senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation, where he focuses on the spread of the Islamic State in Central Africa.

Tags: African Union, AQAP, AQAP propaganda, East Africa, Kenya, Shabaab, Somalia, Tanzania