Analysis: Trump calls Sumy Raksile strike a “error”. But Russia’s war seems to be driving on Putin’s plan

Cnn
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“I was told that they made a mistake.” In this way, US President Donald Trump characterized the “terrible” double-tap rocket stroke against the central Sumy, the Ukraine, which was supposed to use cluster ammunition, to maximize the losses.

According to reports, the Iskander rockets are accurate and the use of two of them are a certain amount of purpose and malice that aimed to meet first aiders while they storm in. It is unlikely that the Kremlin saw the mistake of its paths – this tactic is now so common – and maybe a sympathizer Russia excuses the US President.

The strike of the weekend was a cruel memory of Moscow for the Ukrainian allies, the true intention in the invasion of frightening the Ukrainians for submission. The goal, Sumy, is also in the immediate crosshairs of Russia, since President Vladimir Putin claims to look for a buffer zone within Ukraine by hitting this flowering border town.

The attack also put undesirable emphasis on how few fruits have carried the relentless striving of the White House after diplomacy. Trump said on Friday on social media that Russia had to be “in motion”, but did not give any deadlines or explicit consequences if this was not the case, even though secondary tariffs in his oil buyers hovered.

Trump used to make similar comments – Moscow to warn because he was cinging up the Ukraine civilian population and at the same time expressed a broader grief of the tragedy of war in general, and not about anger at the specific massacres of the Kremlin, which during a Kryvyi Rih matchday days with the example of nine children.

In fact, he later grabbed his comfort topics. When Trump was apparently driven into the narrow matter, Trump – wrongly – actually started the war. “If you hear when you start a war, you need to know that you can win the war, right?

The truth that Trump may have reluctant to publish is that Russia’s diplomacy has predicted in a dizzying Catherine wheel of tangent. It creates the necessary light and noise, but is of a small result that Bar Moscow continues to buy time and follow the war on its own conditions.

American and Russian diplomats are now on a carousel of the apparent design of Moscow, with several tracks leaving the low chance of real progress. Trump’s foreign envoy Steve Witkoff temporarily flies to Russia to probably hear directly from the Kremlin, whose civil servant called his Friday visit to St. Petersburg “productive”. In Saudi Arabia, American and Russian diplomats meet about American and Russian diplomats to float ceasefire ideas and a broader relaxation, while the diplomatic meetings on the lower level began at the new town of Turkey last week to deal with the technical details of the reopening of the messages.

And there is more. In Washington, the Americans and Ukrainians have released a practical path from a dense and corporate rare mineral contract, which was (and maybe only understood) by Delaware Corporate Lawyers, which seems to be almost entirely in favor of the last draft of the White House, seen by CNN.

And there is a separate diplomatic US Ukraine route via peace, also in Saudi Arabia, which has previously proposed a far-reaching ceasefire, that Russia does not yet have to agree. Instead, a limited 30-day infrastructure of the ceasefire ends, which born chaotically and hardly adheres to on Friday. This first test of diplomacy, which is apparently dead on arrival, is somehow still to consider future efforts to be problematic.

The above flow diagram or the dilapidated Venn diagram has the unique, uniform thread of the Trump administration, which is looking for progress from several different dialogues, from which he hopes that they will finally turn into a unique peace. Five different, current conversations, and even if you do not count the mostly quiet role of Trump’s special representative for Ukraine and Russia General Keith Kellogg or the intermittent but overarching influence that Putin-Trump call call calls.

This different and confusing interface is how Moscow’s critics are a standard -Russian tactic that can buy time while it is committed. The Trump administration took to the street with 24-hour to 100-day peace periods in front of the rubber. Now there is no deadline – or the metastatic conversations – within sight.

Why is Putin looking for time? Because he believes that Trump has distracted himself and is interested in a simple victory, but not a complex compromise. Putin also clearly believes that this summer he can win a concrete victory at the front that will change the dynamics of the talks.

His rush to Sumy is supposed to buy Russia on the border, but also draw the armed forces in Ukraine. Russia is slow and and and unpleasant progress in the south of Zaporizhzhia, an area in which its output should have broken almost two years ago. A Ukrainian intelligence officer recently moved close to the city of Kharkiv, described a quieter than expected front and the fear of what was lying in front of us.

The concerns grow that Russia collects reinforcements and is waiting for the soil to dry in May to escalate a spring offensive, from which the Ukrainian officials have already partially started. Kyiv has indicated an artillery ammunition in the coming weeks, and the recent commitments of the allies may not have picked up this upcoming crisis. It will be a very difficult summer for Ukraine.

This is the real rubber that comes onto the street. Moscow has invested everything in a war in which it can simply afford no less than victory. It sees no profit in completing a deal about frozen front lines. The dynamic- with a white house that the economic and security standards through the Sheaf and Ukraine, which is struggling to meet labor and resource needs, is more in favor of day. The Russians hang according to time because they believe that it is on their side.

Your European allies are worriedly prepared to obtain two unpleasant potential futures. The first is the possibility of a Ukrainian breakdown and the need for the European members of NATO to hold back the Russians without American help. This is a more distant probability, but the undertone of the preparations on the entire continent. The second option is more practical and public: the British and French lead preparations for a “reassurance” to protect any beginners. The noise and the planning serve two purposes: Kyiv can agree to diplomacy if he knows that there are some security guarantees. And it is embarrassing Moscow partly in stone wave -changing peace plan, which is increasingly ready to roll.

But with every rotation of the diplomatic Catherine wheel, the conditions of the actual peace become more difficult. Putin seems to be less ready to offer a partial break himself, since he believes that Trump is ultimately toothless and is not effectively punished for the fact that he has rejected this relaxation.

Trump said about us to speak to Russia and Ukraine at the weekend: “You know, there is a point where you either have to set up or hold the flap.” His problem is that both he and the Kremlin like to continue talking. And neither does he want to set up: Trump hesitates to impose hard sanctions and disrupt his relationship with Moscow, and the Kremlin doesn’t seem to feel like stopping war.

Trump added: “We’ll see what happens, but I think things are going well.” Ukraine must remain in the hope that it does not simply mean that the country’s fate is permanently put in the shade by another crisis.