Assad Management. Why a deal that would enable Russia to keep its military bases in Syria is unlikely – Novaya Gazeta Europe

During the talks with a delegation under the direction of the Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov in Damascus at the beginning of this week, the Syria’s transitional government demanded that Russia, the sponsor of the country’s soil suffering in the past ten years, al-assadus in the power and clear that that Any restoration of the relationships between the two countries should “consider the mistakes of the past, respect the will of the Syrian people and serve their interests”.

The military analyst Sergey told Novaya Europe that it was reasonable to conclude that the negotiations were “so far unsuccessful”, based on what he described as an optimized language, which in the reporting on the media of the Russian state media about the discussions was used, not to mention the fact that the Russian team would probably have immediately transferred progress to the world. “Apparently the main condition that the Syrians defined is the delivery of Bashar al-Assad, and I assume that Russia has already decided not to agree,” added the person.

While Putin can hide between the well-known Russian propaganda slogan, “we do not give up”, the real reason why he does not reclaim Assad to Syria about the extent of Russian war crimes in the Middle East when he is confronted with a tribunal , in which he is asked in detail about the indiscriminately Russian attacks on civil infrastructure in Idlib and the use of chemical weapons during the country’s civil war.

“As far as I know, the new Syrian government calls for the delivery of not one, but three Assads: Bashar and his accomplices: his brother and husband of his sister,” says military expert Sergey Migdal, who calls all three “blood -soaked criminals”.

So that Russia can simply hand over an asset like Assad, whose proximity to Kremlin and the Russian secret services are known. This code, which in the past has led the Russian secret services to Western citizens to ensure that important assets are ultimately exchanged, underpins Putin’s worldwide network of agents and employees.

In addition to the delivery of Assad, the Syrian preliminary government also calls for reparations for the destruction caused by Russian armed forces fighting in the country. After all, it was Russian aviation that met hospitals, schools, bridges and other civilian infrastructure, the costs of which will be in hundreds of millions, if not in billions.

“Do not forget that Assad has transferred his very considerable assets to Russia,” says Expuser, although he admits that the exact size of the former dictator’s retirement fund is unknown. Nevertheless, Assad had been expected to share part of his “rainy day” fund with the Kremlin to pay for his constant stay in the country: “Just like the (former Ukrainian President Viktor) Yanukowitsch and the other deposed presidents, the end that ended in Russia, ”says expendable.

“The EU has published a communiqué about the normalization of relationships with Syria, in which one of the points with which the prerequisite for the assignment of EU help for Syria is the designation of Russian bases from the Syrian territory,” added Migdal . “Only then do billions of dollars will flow into the country”.

In 1971, Bashar Al-Assad’s father Hafez of the Soviet Navy allowed a logistics point to open a logistics point in the city of Tartus, whereby a Russian ambition was fulfilled to have a naval base on the Mediterranean that went back to the Tsar. To station squadrons or even an entire strike group here.

“The logistics point in Tartus makes it possible to operate warships for tele -distance missions,” Pavel Akssyonov, military analyst at BBC News Russian, told Novaya Europe. Through tartus, the so -called Syrian express, the brisk Russian ships that deliver weapons and staff to Syria, and as such, the presence of Russian troops in the region depends on the grassroots.

Syria was also used by the Russian military as a staging post to provide his lucrative use of mercenaries in countries in Africa, says Akyonov, who determines the length of the runway on the Hmeimim Air Base, which enables him to get heavy Russian military transports, aircraft, that are too big for most landingways.

The Hmeimim air base is even more a problem for the Russians today they were technical staff, but this number has been significantly reduced and the number of Russian military personnel in Syria may have dropped to hundreds.

“During the offensive, the rebels were able to reach the Hmeimim air base pretty quickly,” says Pauser. “And those facilities that are isolated with their kilometers long, which are isolated in the vastness of the desert, are very difficult to secure. Perhaps the Turks will now take over or the new government will find another way to use the base. “

Never a country that can be accused of putting all eggs into a basket is currently being rumored that Russia, according to Migdal, is also about the founding of a military base in the Libyan city of Bengasis.

According to the flight trading, Russian aircraft flew regularly through Bengasi, and although Libya is gripped by instability, unrest and civil war, which means that the safety of an air base, the aircraft, the cargo or the staff would be a huge. The logistical challenge must be with a fresh slate and A new sentence of allies begin from the front, which appeals to the Russian military considerably, whose top broth may decide that it is now time to move out of Syria.