Asteroid 2024 YR4 is the most risky asteroid that has ever been recorded. Here is the reason why the likelihood of earth will change

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A recently discovered asteroid called 2024 years 4 is now the most risky asteroid that has ever been recognized. NASA has calculated that the Space Rock 2032 has a chance of 3.1% to hit the earth, while the risk assessment of the European Space Agency is 2.8%.

The close difference is due to the use of various tools by the two agencies to determine the orbit of the asteroid and the modeling of its possible effects. However, both percentages increase over the 2.7% probability of collision, which was once discovered with an asteroid as an apophis discovered in 2004, which has been seen to be the most important room rock in the past two decades for 2024 years.

With a diameter of 1,148 feet (350 meters), Apophis was previously regarded as one of the most dangerous asteroids, with the chance to hit our planet and reach a 4 out of 10 on the Turin endangerment scale, a tool for categorizing potential collisions of space objects with earth. The evaluation meant that the asteroid deserved the attention and persecution of the astronomers. However, scientists revised this evaluation after a precise analysis of the asteroid orbit in 2021.

And scientists expect similar forecast trends at 2024 years, which are currently on 3 on the Torino scale and are comparable to 131 to 295 feet (40 to 90 meters) and comparable to a large building.

“For asteroids that are larger than 30 meters tall, the record of the highest probability of influence and the longest time with a probability of effectiveness of more than 1%is held for 4 years,” says the ESA.

“It is important to note that this increasing probability of effectiveness is an expected result, since we further improve our knowledge of the orbit’s orbit of the asteroid. … If further observations of the asteroid are carried out, the uncertainty region will continue to shrink and the probability of effectiveness can continue to increase. When we reach a point where the earth is no longer in this region, the probability of effects quickly falls to 0. “

Astronomers use a variety of telescopes to watch the space rock to understand its size and orbit. This will probably have less chances of a 2032 collision than the current data.

Apophis’ ranking of 4 was the highest level ever reached on the Torino scale, and there are currently no other known objects over zero apart from 2024 years 4, said Richard Binzel, inventor of the scale. Binzel is a professor of Planetary Science, Joint Professor of Aerospace Technology and Faculty Member of Macvicar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Apophis reached 4 because it was a larger object that was capable of regional damage, while 2024 years old is 4 years old because it would cause local damage, said Binzel.

Binzel presented his concept for the scale at a UN conference in 1995. A working group of the international astronomical Union took her at a meeting in Turin, Italy-Daher the name of the Skala and published in 1999. Binzel said, thanks to new asteroid surveys .

“For many of these objects, uncertainties in their preliminary orbits lead to calculations that result in probabilities in the next century,” said Binzel in 1999. “An index system is proposed in which the danger is set up by a given approach in an easily understandable context that enables simple and efficient communication between astronomers and the public.”

According to the Turin scale, the rank of 2024 YR4 of 3: “Current calculations give a 1% or greater probability of a collision that is able to destroy localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to a new delivery at level 0. Public attention and civil servants are earned when the encounter is less than a decade. ”

But it is completely natural that the effects of opportunities “jump around” before they fall to zero, said Binzel.

Part of the uncertainty lies in the understanding of 2024 years and how close it will come to earth in the future, he said. Astronomers are at the beginning to measure the four -year orbit of the space rock around the sun, which makes it difficult to determine exactly where it will be in years or decades.

While it is likely that the asteroid is to rest through the earth harmlessly, as expected by Apophis in 2029 (if it is examined by several spacecraft), it is of crucial importance for astronomers to actively observe and pursue asteroids in order to actively observe and pursue To collect more data and binzel and Binzel confirms that they are “at work”.

Binzel, who used a pasta analogy as an allusion to the Italian scale he created, compared the uncertainty about the future place of the asteroid with a long Fettuccine noodle that has the orbit of the moon around the earth.

“The earth is simply below this noodle, and the break that the earth occupies is the likelihood of effects,” said Binzel in an e -mail. “The noodles reduce more data on the asteroid. If the noodle shrinks but still includes the earth, the calculated probability can increase. Finally we will set the position of the asteroid to that of a single grain. Most likely, this grain will not be on earth. It could be further than the moon. ”

The Asteroid was discovered at Earth after death in December and only visible after April in June 2028 when it is expected that it is again harmless from our planet.

“Removes YR4 will be near Jupiter orbit,” said Binzel. “YR4 is a challenge because it is small and sets off. Telescopes on the floor can follow it for a few more months. Then we call (the James Webb Space Telescope) to follow it even further if necessary. ”

Webb is expected to watch the asteroids in March to help astronomers capture the orbit and size of the space rock.

“While certainty for 2024 years 4 is the result that we expect, it is not because of us. It is to be decided for nature, ”said Binzel. “In fact, nature has already clarified the question. We don’t know this answer yet. That is why our tracking efforts are continued. ”