Below 0.6440 there may be 0.6400 – UOB group

The downward momentum has weakened; The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a range between 0.6440 and 0.6500. In the longer term, AUD needs to break and hold 0.6440 before a move to 0.6400 is expected, note Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann, FX analysts at UOB Group.

The downward momentum has weakened

24-HOUR VIEW: “After the AUD fell sharply early yesterday, we have indicated that bearish momentum is beginning to develop.” We have suggested that the AUD “could fall below 0.6440, but below this level possibly “can’t gain a foothold.” We also noted that “to maintain momentum building, AUD needs to stay below 0.6510 (minor resistance lies at 0.6490).” Subsequently, AUD fell to 0.6434 and rebounded strongly to 0.6508. The AUD closed at 0.6474 (-0.47%). The downward momentum appears to have faded with the strong recovery. In other words, AUD is likely to trade in a range today, probably between 0.6440 and 0.6500.”

1-3 WEEK VIEW: “Yesterday (November 26th), when the AUD was at 0.6470, we stressed that it “needs to break through and stay below 0.6440 before expecting a move to 0.6400 We added: “The probability of AUD falling significantly below 0.6440 will increase in the next few days, assuming that 0.6525 does not While the AUD subsequently fell below 0.6440, it recovered from 0.6434 and closed at 0.6474. We continue to hold the same view for now.”