BIS residential property price statistics, Q2 2024

Summary of the latest developments

In the second quarter of 2024, global consumer price deflated real estate prices fell 1.4% year-on-year, compared to -0.8% in the first quarter.¹ This decline occurred despite the continued moderate nominal increase (+2.5%).

In the second quarter of 2024, developments between medium and emerging economies continued to differ. After a prolonged period of decline, real property prices in Central European countries rose by 0.2% year-on-year for the first time since the third quarter of 2022. In contrast, prices in emerging market economies fell by 2.6% year-on-year, compared to -1.0% in the first quarter of 2024, continuing the downward trend observed since the second quarter of 2022 (Graph 1). The decline in emerging economies was mainly due to the decline observed in Asia (–4.9%), which was only partially offset by increases in Central and Eastern Europe (+3.9%), Latin America (+2.3%) and in the Middle East and Africa (+2.1%) (Table 1).

Country-level data shows that more than 60% of all analyzed jurisdictions in both AEs and emerging economies experienced an increase in real house prices in the second quarter of 2024, pushing median growth to almost 1% (Graph 2.A). This reflects the fact that the continued decline in global real property prices has been driven primarily by a few large jurisdictions, notably China (-7.6%) and, to a lesser extent, India (-1.5%).² Chart 3 provides a more detailed overview of the countries that experienced the largest increases and decreases in real house prices in the second quarter of 2024. It shows that prices fell the most in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Turkey and Luxembourg. However, they rose significantly in Poland and Bulgaria.

Overall, global real housing prices are above their pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels (by 4 percentage points). Among G20 economies, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, they rose 117% in Turkey, but fell 11% in China, 9% in India and 8% in South Africa and Germany (Graph 4).

In the longer term, real global real estate prices exceed their post-GFC average by a total of 21% for all jurisdictions analyzed (32% for AEs and 14% for emerging economies) (Table 1). Among G20 economies, they have more than doubled since 2010 in Turkey and increased by more than 50% in the United States, Canada and India. However, in 40% of jurisdictions they remain below their post-GFC levels (Graph 4).

Advanced Economies

Overall, AE real residential property prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, the first growth since the third quarter of 2022. Among major economies, real prices rose 4.6% in Australia and 4.6% in the United States 1.4% and remained stable in Japan and the United Kingdom. They fell further in Canada (–4.8%) and, to a lesser extent, in the euro area (–1.2%) (Figure 5).

Within the Eurozone, real property prices continued to show significant differences between member states in the second quarter of 2024. They rose by 6.5% in Greece, 4.8% in the Netherlands and 4.3% in Spain. The increase was more moderate in Italy (+2.1%), while prices in Belgium remained stable (–0.1%). In contrast, they fell in Germany (–4.7%) and even more sharply in France (–6.6%) (Figure 6).

Emerging markets

Real house prices in emerging market economies fell by 2.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 (compared to -1.0% in the first quarter of 2024), reflecting the significant decline in Asia. In all other regions, however, prices rose.

Across Asian economies, prices fell an average of 4.9%, with declines of 13.8% in Hong Kong SAR, 7.6% in China, 3.5% in Korea, 1.5% in India and 1% in Indonesia. In contrast, prices in Singapore increased by 3% (Graph 7).

In Latin America, real prices increased by 2.3%, mainly due to continued price increases in Mexico (+4.4%) and Brazil (+1.9%). In Central and Eastern European countries, real prices rose by 3.9% overall, with double-digit increases in Poland (+14.7%) and Bulgaria (+12.4%). Prices continued to fall in Turkey (–13.1%) and South Africa (–4.3%) (Figure 8).

Appendix: Development of nominal real estate prices