Bitcoin price prediction for December based on historical BTC returns

Bitcoin (BTC) opened December in a tight consolidation range after breaking through psychological resistance at $100,000 in November. At the start of this new month, Finbold examined Bitcoin’s historical returns to make a BTC price prediction for December 31st.

In hindsight, Bitcoin ended November up 37.29%, well within Finbold’s forecast price range using the same methodology.

On November 2nd, we published the BTC price prediction with a monthly close between $75,275 and $100,334, while the leading cryptocurrency was trading at $69,495. Bitcoin closed at $96,451 on November 30th, confirming the methodology we will now repeat for this month.

Historical Bitcoin returns in December since 2013

Data from Coin jar shows that December is usually a month of consolidation, without many expressive results, either up or down.

Notably, Bitcoin’s monthly performance in December, dating back to 2013, recorded an average gain of 5.00%. However, December also has a mean return of minus 1.73%, with six out of eleven negative years. These returns are measured from the opening to closing period, or December 1st to December 31st.

For example, Bitcoin recorded its best ever value in December 2020, with an increase of 46.92%, after 42.95% in November. Something similar happened in 2017, with a 53.48% increase in November, followed by a 38.89% increase in December.

Nevertheless, 2013 was the worst year in December with -34.81% and +449.35% respectively, after the best annual performance in November. Overall, all positive November years, with the exception of 2013 and 2014, were followed by a positive December.

Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction until December 31, 2024

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $95,930, down from its opening price of $96,451 in December. The leading cryptocurrency is now consolidating after breaking out of the high and low time frame downtrends that led to its rally.

Therefore, based on its historical returns, BTC could trade between $94,782 and $101,273 by the end of 2024. The forecast predicts the Bitcoin price from the December open using the median and average historical returns if BTC maintains its pattern.

Still, it could be even higher if November’s performance were to mirror previous bull market years.

All in all, predicting the price of an asset, especially cryptocurrencies, is not a conclusive science. There is no guarantee that Bitcoin will trade within this forecast range by December 31st.

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