Black Knights don’t quite make it?

The Army Black Knights finished their first season in the American Athletic Conference with an unblemished conference record. They will also play the AAC Championship Game in Week 15 against perennial rival Tulane Green Wave.

They finished 24th overall in the College Football Playoff rankings, but unfortunately that does little to help the Black Knights’ playoff aspirations.

Army AAC Championship odds

Entering Conference Championship weekend in Week 15, Army had a 9.23% chance of making the College Football Playoff. That’s because a win over the Green Wave, even if they’re potential home favorites against Tulane in some markets, wouldn’t guarantee the necessary climb in the rankings they’d need.

Army would have to move up the rankings significantly to reach Boise State, that’s for sure, but could a case be made for the Black Knights to overtake UNLV in the playoff hunt?

MORE: Simulate the college football season with CFN’s College Football Playoff Predictor

We can break it down, but for now, Army’s first order of business must be winning against Tulane and taking care of its business to leave the best version of itself in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee.

Then, and only then, can we talk about their potential playoff candidacy.

Army College Football Playoff Roadmap

In this scenario, Army does its business at home and defeats Tulane to secure the AAC championship. Could their win be good enough in the eyes of the committee to overtake UNLV or Boise State?

Here’s how these three teams ended up in the last edition of the playoff rankings:

• No. 10 – Boise State
• No. 20 – UNLV
• No. 24 – Army

If the army wins, you can expect it to move up. You can also expect a loser in the Mountain West Championship Game to be relegated.

But just as Army will advance with a win, you can expect the same to happen for the winner of the MWC Championship.

And no matter how you slice it, it looks like Army’s path to the playoffs will be a dead end.

If Boise State wins, they probably earn as much as the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. But if UNLV beats Boise State, that would absolutely be a quality win and would likely secure UNLV’s spot in the top 12 and guarantee the Rebels a spot in the playoffs.

At the same time, it would also cement Army’s place in the race for a spot in the Group of Five among the top 12 teams. For Army, winning the AAC is a great end to an incredibly solid 2024 season, even if they narrowly miss the playoffs.

If they miss the playoffs, watch out for Navy. The Black Knights will try to take their frustration out on someone. And a date with the Midshipmen in Week 16 is the perfect place to do it.

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