Bucks (11-10) at Celtics (18-4) Game #23 12/6/24 Untitled

The Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks for the third and final game between these two teams this season. The Celtics won both of their previous games, winning 119-108 in Boston on October 28th. On November 10th they also won home in Milwaukee with 113:107.

The Celtics are in 2nd place in the East, 1.5 games behind Cleveland and 3 games ahead of Orlando. They are 9-2 at home and 9-1 in their last 10 games. They are 16-3 against Eastern Conference opponents. They won seven straight before losing to the Cavaliers. They have won their last two games. The Cavaliers are in 5th place, 7.5 games out of first place. They are 3-6 on the road and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are 9-9 against Eastern Conference teams. They had also won seven games in a row before losing to the Hawks in their last game.

The Celtics are playing in the third game of a 5-game homestand. The Celtics defeated the Heat and Pistons in the first two games and then host Memphis and Detroit. The game in Detroit was added, along with a game in Washington on the 15th, after the Celtics failed to advance in the Emirates Cup tournament. After the Wizards, the Celtics face the Bulls in a home-and-home series before playing in Orlando.

The Bucks travel to Brooklyn after that game before returning home to face the Orlando Magic in the Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinal game. Then the Cup semifinals will be played in Vegas from December 12-17, and Milwaukee may or may not play there. After the tournament, the Bucks will play in Cleveland on December 20th and then at home against Washington.

This is the first back-to-back games for the Celtics and they will host Marcus Smart and the Memphis Grizzlies for the second game in a row on Saturday. The Celtics are 2-2 in their first consecutive game and 3-1 in their first home game. The Celtics are 120-114 overall against the Bucks and 76-40 in games played in Boston.

Jayson Tatum and Jrue Holiday both sat for our game against the Pistons on Wednesday. Holiday is no longer on the injured list, but Tatum was listed as questionable due to right patellar tendinopathy. He was upgraded to available for this game. Al Horford was questionable for this game due to a left big toe sprain, but was also upgraded to available. Kristaps Porzingis was questionable for this game due to a left hamstring injury and was ruled out. I expect Porzingis to play against Memphis on Saturday while Horford is out.

For the Bucks, Chris Livingston is dealing with an ankle injury and has been assigned to the G-League and is likely out. Marjon Beauchamp is questionable and could miss his third straight game with neck spasms. Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely for this game as he is dealing with right patellar tendinopathy. Khris Middleton is expected to make his season debut in this game after missing the Bucks’ first 21 games while recovering from bilateral ankle surgeries. I expect him to come off the bench and likely be on a minutes restriction.

Likely Celtics starters

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Celtics reserves
Luke Kornet
Payton Pritchard
Neemias Queta
Baylor Scheierman
Jaden Springer
Xavier Tillman, Sr
Jordan Walsh
Sam Hauser

2-way player
JD Davison
Drew Peterson
Anthony Watson

Injuries/losses
Al Horford (toe) available
Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) is out
Jayson Tatum (knee) available

Head coach
Joe Mazzulla

Likely Bucks starters

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Bucks reserves
Pat Connaughton
AJ Green
AJ Johnson
Chris Middleton
Bobby Portis, Jr
Tyler Smith
Gary Trent, Jr
Delon Wright

Two-way player
Liam Robbins
Ryan Rollins
Stanley Umude

Injuries/losses
Khris Middleton (ankle) probably
Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) probably
MarJon Beauchamp (neck) questionable
Chris Livingston (ankle) questionable

Head coach
Doc Rivers

Key Matches

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  Jaylen Brown
  
  

  Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
  

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  Giannis Antetokounmpo
  
  

Jaylen Brown vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.6 points, 11.6 rebounds, 6.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. He shoots 61.6% from the field and 21.4% from distance. In the first two games against Boston, Antetokounmpo averaged 36.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.0 blocks per game. He shot 59.2% from the field and 25.3% from distance. It will likely be a committee job to defend Giannis and try to keep him out of the paint and away from the boards. It will be important to stick with Giannis and try to limit his scoring and rebounding.

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  Jrue holiday
  
  

  Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images
  

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  Damian Lillard
  
  

  Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images
  

Jrue Holiday vs. Damian Lillard
Lillard is averaging 25.9 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.5 assists per game. He shoots 45.1% from the field and 37.7% from distance. In the first two games against the Celtics, Lillard averaged 23.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game while shooting 36.7% from the field and 18.8% from distance lap. This is a personal matter for Jrue, who was traded by the Bucks for Damian Lillard. Lillard may be able to replace Jrue’s offense, but can’t come close to replacing his defense and intangibles.

Honorable mention
Kristaps Porzingis vs. Brook Lopez
Lopez is averaging 11.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. His shooting percentage was 47.4% from the field and 36.0% from distance. Against the Celtics this season, Lopez averaged 9.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Once again, Porzingis may or may not sit it out this time. I’m not sure who will sit and who will step in in this case.

Key to the game
defense – Defense is always the most important key to victory. Defense really wins championships. The Celtics rank 10th with a defensive rating of 110.5. The Bucks rank 13th with a defensive rating of 112.4. Against the Pistons, the Celtics allowed them to shoot 51% from the field and from beyond the arc. The Celtics need to defend better if they want to win against the Bucks. The Celtics will have to work harder on defense than the Bucks and continue to focus on defense to avoid giving the Bucks easy baskets.

rebound – In addition to defense, rebounding is always an important key to victory. As Pat Riley once said, “No rebounds, no rings.” The key to rebounding is effort and focus. They were outrebounded in 6 of 10 games this season. They are 11-0 when out-rebounded or tied with their opponents and just 7-4 when out-rebounded. The Bucks are 18th with 43.1 rebounds per game, while the Celtics are 14th with 43.9 rebounds per game. The Celtics will have to fight harder to outrebound the Bucks in this game.

Don’t underestimate money – The Bucks weren’t playing well and were just 2-7 to start the season. However, they have played much better in the last few games. Antetokounmpo and Lillard are very dangerous and have some strong players around them. They also expect to get Middleton back for this game and that will give them a boost. There’s a good chance the Celtics will see them in the playoffs at some point. The Celtics need to be at their best on the boards and on defense for the entire game, not just two quarters.

Move the ball – When the Celtics keep the ball moving both inside and out, they are hard to beat and the offense is dominant. But for some reason the Celtics deviate from that from time to time and there is less movement and more iso play. The Celtics need to keep the ball moving to find the best shot and the open man on every possession. When the ball stops moving, they fight.

X factors
Home game and injuries – The Celtics are back at home in their third home game of five. They have the home crowd behind them, which gives them extra motivation. The Bucks are on the road and have the distractions of travel and a hostile crowd. However, they will be motivated by Khris Middleton’s return from injury. The Celtics need to take advantage of the home game and play with energy and effort. The Celtics have three key players who are questionable, and if one or all of them cannot play, the Celtics’ task becomes more difficult and the players who remain ready will have to step up their game.

Coaching – The Bucks are coached by former Celtics coach Doc Rivers, who left the Celtics after Pierce and Garnett were traded because he didn’t want to coach a rebuild. Since then, the Celtics have done nothing but win while Doc’s teams have struggled, despite him coaching multiple stars at each stop. I’m sure Doc will be extra motivated to beat his former team after already losing to them twice, while Joe Mazzulla will be motivated because he’s Psycho Joe and is just extra motivated to win every single game .

Officiating – The office can always be an x-factor. Some referees consider the game to be close, others let it play. Some favor the home team, others think it’s even. Some referees just seem to have an agenda that doesn’t fit with the game on the field. And sometimes the referees are just cruel. Giannis always seems to get more than his share of calls as he plows through players and leaves bodies in his wake on his way to the basket. The Celtics have to play through whatever the referees call the game, whether it’s close, whether they let them play, or whether they make terrible decisions. The Celtics cannot allow bad or missing calls to affect their focus on the game.

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