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Can California’s Broken Unemployment Insurance System Be Saved? –California Globe

“The state funding system for unemployment insurance (UI) is broken. The state unemployment insurance program should be self-sufficient – ​​that is, the system should accumulate enough funds to pay benefits over time.”

That’s the first paragraph of the Legislative Analyst’s Office’s new report on “Fixing Unemployment Insurance” in California.

That doesn’t bode well.

“Unemployment benefits now routinely exceed incoming tax contributions, creating costly reliance on federal loans and limiting the state’s ability to improve the program.”

As the Globe reported in November:

Governor Newsom’s administration was so grossly negligent during the state’s lockdown that the EDD, the state’s unemployment agency, allowed tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to be lost to fraud.

The estimate of how much the EDD lost is somewhere between $31 billion and $40 billion sent to illegitimate applicants, state and federal prisoners, and international fraud rings, all of which simply went straight into the department’s completely unprotected system, reported the Globe in 2023.

The House Oversight and Accountability Committee investigated California’s EDD after the Trump administration gave the EDD over $1.8 billion to cover the department’s additional administrative costs caused by the pandemic.

This money must be paid back. The EDD began repaying the $1.8 billion after Governor Newsom and the state legislature worked together to place federal debt repayment on California companies.

The Legislative Analyst reports that employers will pay an additional federal surcharge of 1.2 percent in 2025 (equivalent to $84 per employee).

The LAO continues:

The state’s broken UI system is now having increasing consequences:

  • Annual deficits will drive up outstanding federal UI loans.
  • Loans will become a permanent part of unemployment insurance and a significant ongoing cost for taxpayers.
  • The UI program will not be able to build reserves before the next recession.

“Although a federal subsidy for companies will help repay the federal loan, the surcharge cannot help the state build reserves after the loan has been repaid,” reports the LAO. This is because the surcharge ceases once the loan balance reaches zero. Without the federal surcharge, there would be little or no reserves available at the start of the next recession, which would further increase the state’s dependence on expensive federal loans.”

Instead of paying off the debt when California had higher revenues and/or a “budget surplus,” Newsom and the Democrats went on a spending spree for long-term social welfare programs that the state now cannot afford. Therefore, private sector companies will pay off the governor’s debts – debts that could have been avoided if Newsom and his appointees had taken their jobs seriously.

The LAO recommends that the Legislature increase the taxable wage base from $7,000 to $46,800 and tie the taxable wage base to the amount of unemployment benefits a worker can actually receive ($450 per week).

Unemployment insurance (UI) is paid by the employer. “Taxable employers shall pay a percentage on the first $7,000 of wages paid to each employee in a calendar year,” the EDD states. “The UI tariff plan and the amount of taxable wages are determined annually. New employers pay 3.4 percent (0.034) for a period of two to three years. We notify employers of their new plan every December. The maximum tax is $434 per employee per year (calculated at the highest UI tax rate of 6.2 percent x $7,000).”

The LAO explains that the taxable wage base is the amount of income taxed to fund benefits. This means that employers do not pay unemployment insurance payroll taxes on employee earnings that exceed the taxable wage base.

“State UI programs are intended to be self-sufficient – ​​that is, the system should accumulate enough funds to pay for benefits over time,” the LAO says, stating the obvious.

The LAO says the UI trust fund will run annual operating deficits for the next several years. However, the LAO questions the Newsom administration’s rosy economic forecasts for California:

“The government forecast, which assumes a stable economy, estimates that deficits will be just under $1 billion by 2025. Our assessment, which examines many potential future developments for the state’s economy, also concludes that the deficits will most likely persist regardless of how the economy performs.” Economy,
with an average result resulting in deficits of around $2 billion per year over the next five years. This prospect is unprecedented: although the state has historically failed to build robust reserves during periods of economic growth, it has never before experienced sustained deficits during any of these periods.”

And they say the state’s tax system will not be able to repay the $20 billion loan to the federal government because “the balance is expected to grow due to the ongoing gap between contributions and benefits.”

What other factors caused this crisis?

During the pandemic, lawmakers adopted a new policy to exclude the cost of pandemic benefits when calculating employer experience rating tax rates. This exacerbated the state’s long-standing imbalance between benefits and contributions and contributed to the state’s current structural deficit.

What corrections does the LAO propose?

Increase the taxable wage base. Increase the taxable wage base from $7,000 to $46,800.

Redesign employer taxes. Adopt a simple, robust UI tax structure consisting of a standard rate and a reserve creation rate.

Reconsider the experience rating. Transition to an experience assessment method based on each company’s employment changes rather than its individual unemployment insurance contributions and benefits.

Refinance the outstanding loan. Pay the outstanding federal loan immediately with new credits divided equally between: (1) a tax bond payable by the employer and (2) credits in the Pooled Money Investment Account payable by the state’s General Fund.

And the final blast:

The state’s employers will pay higher unemployment costs one way or another, the LAO says. “Even if the legislature does not adopt our recommended solutions, employers will soon pay significantly more in employment income taxes than they do today.”

The LAO claims that the changes now recommended will allow lawmakers to make “strategic decisions” about how to repay the federal loan…

Expecting the governor and legislature that created this crisis to even be able to solve it is a fool’s errand. They evade any oversight of their regulators – why does the LAO think that lawmakers and Governor Newsom care enough about employers and the unemployed to do whatever it takes to fix the terrible mess they have created?

Can California’s Broken Unemployment Insurance System Be Saved? –California Globe

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