Can Georgia make the College Football Playoff with a loss in the SECCG?

Can the Georgia Bulldogs still make the College Football Playoff if they lose to Texas in the SEC Championship Game?

On Saturday evening, Georgia learned that it will have a rematch against the Texas Longhorns in the SEC Championship next weekend in Atlanta. The Bulldogs got the best of Texas in their regular season matchup, which was played in Austin. This time the game is played on a neutral field. Obviously the winner of the game will secure a place in the top four and a bye in the first round, but what about the loser? Did Georgia do enough to still be in the playoffs even if they lost?

Although Georgia already has two defeats this season, they will play an additional game, which most other teams will not do. So it seems a bit unfair to penalize them for losing an extra game. Additionally, if Georgia lost in the conference championship game to a team they beat on the road earlier in the year, then it would feel like a loss and both teams would deserve a spot. However, this assumes it is a close game between the two programs. A blowout would probably be a different story.

Let’s also take another perspective. According to ESPN’s College Football Playoff forecast, Georgia has a 98 percent chance of making the playoffs even if they lose to Texas on Saturday. They also have a 63 percent chance of hosting a first-round playoff game, even with a loss. So it looks like the Dawgs have secured their spot in the playoffs regardless of what happens in Atlanta this weekend.

Another interesting statistic to consider in this situation is that in the teams’ seven rematches in the SEC Championship Game, the team that won in the regular season also won the conference title five times. The most recent exception, oddly enough, was Georgia in 2017, when they avenged their loss to Auburn in the title game.

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