Can Miami make the playoffs? Explaining the Hurricanes’ CFP odds according to the latest rankings

The penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings poll was released Tuesday. Unsurprisingly, it sparked controversy among the masses.

Fortune favored the bold over the weekend, with No. 4 Notre Dame, No. 5 Georgia and No. 8 Tennessee doing just enough to secure victories in closely contested games. Those victories proved particularly important in the postseason standings – the Irish, the Bulldogs and the Volunteers all appear to have a shot at joining college football’s most exclusive club.

The same cannot be said for Miami, which suffered a heartbreaking 42-38 loss to Syracuse. The loss proved costly for the Hurricanes on several levels. First, it denied them participation in the ACC Championship Game. Second, it has thrown them into CFP purgatory – even if it doesn’t seem like it at first glance.

Here’s what you need to know about Miami’s postseason chances – or lack thereof – according to the latest CFP poll results.

MORE: Where the Crimson Tide lands in the latest CFP rankings after the Iron Bowl win

Can Miami still make the playoffs?

Miami isn’t quite dead and buried when it comes to postseason competition. But it’s damn close.

Although the Hurricanes were ranked No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings at the end of this week’s poll, they are on the outside looking for the coveted golden ticket to the postseason round.

The reason why? Miami will cede that position to the winner of the Big 12 championship game between No. 15 Arizona State and No. 16 Iowa State — the fifth-seeded conference champion.

Perhaps Mario Cristobal’s team could make it through the back door as a whole? Think about it again. CFP Chairman Warde Manuel announced that teams not participating in conference championship games (e.g., Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina) will not have their rankings reevaluated because their resumes are considered complete.

MORE: Tracker for every FBS coaching change in 2024

The Canes are one spot behind the 11th-ranked Crimson Tide. Assuming Manuel’s word is binding, they almost certainly can’t overtake the Tide or any other side ahead of them.

If No. 10 Boise State were to lose to No. 20 UNLV on Saturday, that postseason spot would go to the Runnin’ Rebels. The same fate would befall No. 8 SMU if it forfeited its ACC title game to No. 17 Clemson.

The only possible opening Miami could have for CFP Ecstasy would be if No. 5 Georgia suffered a disastrous loss to No. 2 Texas. Even in this case, it’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs – with wins against the then No. 1 Longhorns and No. 7 volunteers – would fall eight places in the rankings. By comparison, the Hurricanes fell six spots after losing a match to the previously unranked Orange.

MORE: Tips against the spread for conference title games including Texas-Georgia, Penn St.-Oregon

The ACC responded seriously to the decision, and conference commissioner Jim Phillips sharply criticized the CFP committee’s decision.

Statement from ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips on CFP: “Miami absolutely deserves better from the committee.” pic.twitter.com/8N1Y7PyG2H

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) December 4, 2024

“Miami has more wins and fewer losses than the team directly in front of them and a dominant win over an SEC team whose late-season momentum includes a win over No. 13 Ole Miss,” Phillips wrote. “Plus, with two losses and nine points total — against a ranked Syracuse team and a Georgia Tech team that just took No. 5 Georgia to eight overtimes — Miami absolutely deserved more from the committee.”

“As we look at the final rankings, we hope the committee will reconsider and put a deserving Miami in the running.”