Can Michigan follow its proven formula to beat No. 2 Ohio State?

JT Tuimoloau (44), Tommy Eichenberg (35), Sonny Styles (6) and Ty Hamilton (58) are ready to defend Michigan’s potent, run-heavy offense. The Buckeyes lost to the Wolverines 30-24 at the Big House on Saturday. Photo credit: Caleb Blake | Photo editor

In college football, we often try to put things in neat boxes.

This year, Ohio State is a good team; Michigan is not – at least not on paper.

However, on any given day, one team can defeat another despite being grossly overqualified or under-coached. Although most Ohio State fans believe there is no rhyme or reason for a Michigan win in “The Game” this year, they should be cautious in making that assumption.

Amid its three-year winning streak against Ohio State, Michigan consistently had success running the ball and taking an early lead, which generally resulted in the Buckeyes breaking off the run.

When Michigan defeated Ohio State in 2021, the Wolverines totaled 297 yards on the ground compared to 64 yards for the Buckeyes.

“When that happens, you feel like they control the game,” head coach Ryan Day said in the 2021 postgame press conference.

The Buckeyes regularly broke the run on setbacks and became a one-dimensional passing team in Day’s losses to Michigan.

After the game in 2021, Day said, “When you throw that much, you’re putting yourself at risk.”

A similar sentiment was expressed after the 2023 loss, in which the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes 30-24.

“We didn’t win rushing yards, so you’re not going to win the game,” Day said during his postgame press conference in 2023.

The puzzling loss in 2022 was something of an anomaly, as Ohio State suffered more from losing big plays than from a consistent, rushing attack.

Still, the Buckeyes were outgunned and had to play catch-up in the second half, forcing Day to abandon the running game again.

The 2024 Wolverines are all about bullying, no-holds-barred football, led by running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards.

Mullings was something of a breakout star for the Wolverines, leading them on the ground with 832 yards and 11 touchdowns. If Michigan can beat the Buckeyes to the ground early in the game, they can effectively silence the Shoe.

That effect was evident in 2022, as Michigan gradually sucked the life out of its home crowd and came out on top with a 45-23 win over Ohio State.

All the pressure in the world is on Ohio State. A team that lost to Michigan the last three years is still expected to win in a bloodbath, with most major sportsbooks favoring a Buckeyes win by more than three points.

However, the Wolverines have nothing to lose. If they can follow the same formula that has led to success in the past, it could lead to a shocking realization for the Buckeyes.

This is all the more reason why there could be a Buckeye collapse if the game stays close or Michigan takes an early lead. In the past, as the rules of the game became stricter and Ohio State became aware of the stakes of the game, the team won in maize and blue.

Part of participating in this massive rivalry is accepting the fact that this Saturday afternoon is actually a one-game season.

Michigan is not a very good football team and Ohio State is. But history shows the Wolverines still have the formula to pull off the upset. And their motivation is beyond question.

Ohio State’s narrative this year has been largely about its inconsistency.

The Buckeyes will sometimes appear to be the best team in the nation, but other times they can compete with the other forgotten Ohio State teams of the past that failed to achieve their goals.

Certainly many were disappointed that Ohio State was unable to produce “a full four quarters of football” this season.

Day has struggled to win big games, but Saturday would be a good time to change the story.

So it’s really time to put Day and the Buckeyes program through their paces.

If Ohio State gets the win, Day’s reputation will be restored – for now.

And if Michigan somehow finds a way to beat the Buckeyes for the fourth straight time, madness could erupt in Columbus.