Can Notre Dame handle USC with a playoff spot on the line? 3 keys and a prediction

SOUTH BEND, Ind. – Marcus Freeman knows what’s at stake for No. 5 Notre Dame this weekend when it takes on USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

If you win, Notre Dame will host a College Football Playoff game next month. If they lose, the Irish could be out of the field entirely, depending on how the rest of college football’s final games play out. As tempting as it may be to focus on what comes after Saturday’s rivalry game (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS), getting the deal done is more important than what comes after.

“If you don’t understand how good this opponent is, if you don’t understand the challenge this opponent is going to bring on Saturday, then the blame is yours,” Freeman said. “That’s what I’m going to continue to remind our guys about. Yes, the things we have done in the past have given us the opportunity to be in this moment that we are in when we win. That’s what they say. You win and you’re there.”

Notre Dame (10-1) has become a sure thing under Freeman in his third year, especially during this nine-game series. Since the loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have handed eight of their nine opponents their worst losses of the year, narrowly missing that mark against Virginia.

Doing the same at USC (6-5) doesn’t require a bust, as the Trojans’ losses were all by single digits and they led in the fourth quarter of each of those games. But Notre Dame hasn’t placed much importance on the fourth quarter lately, leaving no room for doubt long before then.

Can Notre Dame close out its regular season with another impressive win? Three keys and a prediction for Saturday:

Blow. Tackle. Repeat

It’s hard to say exactly how well Notre Dame’s secondary performed this season. It is simply clear that the Irish have performed brilliantly. According to Pro Football Focus, Notre Dame’s top six defensive backs were each charged with 40 missed tackles in the last two seasons, when the Irish had one of the best pass defenses in the country. In 11 games, this secondary has only missed 31 tackles, slightly more than the last two years.

It just feels like Notre Dame’s secondary was even better considering the Irish are ranked No. 1 nationally in pass efficiency defense, No. 2 in scoring and No. 3 in yards allowed per turn.

“Sometimes the window to your soul on defense depends on how well your defensive backs attack,” defensive coordinator Al Golden said. “And right now they’re leading by example, whether it’s corners, nickels or safeties. Don’t be afraid to throw it in there. They use great form, great technique, and that sets the bar high for your defense.”

USC could test this given its raw material at wide receiver, even with new quarterback Jayden Maiava Miller replacing Moss. The Irish haven’t had a competent (traditional) passing attack since Louisville, the only opponent to rank in the top 60 nationally in pass efficiency.

USC is 2-0 with Jayden Maiava as its starting quarterback. (Gary A. Vasquez/Imagn Images)

The Trojans check in at No. 70.

In Maiava’s two starts, he was 44 of 70 for 480 yards, four touchdowns and an interception in wins over Nebraska and UCLA, two of the worst pass defenses in the country. Notre Dame presents a different kind of challenge – not just in terms of talent and scheme, but also in mentality.

As Freeman said before kickoff last week, violence has become standard procedure at Notre Dame.

“We never talked about playing differently, so I’m glad they want to play that way,” Golden said. “Every defense has its own DNA. If that’s what ours becomes, then great. But that’s entirely up to the players.”

Back in the red zone

This is not so much a problem to be solved, but rather an optimization.

Notre Dame scored touchdowns on four of its six drives into the red zone last weekend against Army. That’s okay. It’s just that Freeman didn’t quite see it that way after the Irish failed to score in the first half after getting to first-and-goal from the Black Knights’ 5-yard line. Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock called four consecutive runs up the middle that basically went nowhere.

“You can look at it and say, ‘We’re not kidding ourselves’… but that’s what matters. I have to do a better job,” Denbrock said. “I have to stop being so stubborn. And there were some opportunities to maybe throw in a play-action pass or something like that, which we probably should have done. That’s more on me than on the players.”

Red zone efficiency has been a strength for Notre Dame all season, whether the offense was running well or not. The Irish rank ninth nationally in red zone touchdown percentage and have crossed the goal line on 75.6 percent of their red zone attempts. Riley Leonard’s legs have a lot to do with it. This also applies to Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. But for the offense to reach its potential, the line’s play must continue to improve.

Denbrock said the performance against Army may have been the unit’s best.

“We had to play with our feet on their side of the offensive line. And if we can do that, we have some really talented young men that have what it takes and are going to do some really good things,” Denbrock said. “So I thought they did a great job on that in particular. And then because they were aggressive and at the same time recognized and passed on their moves and things, I thought they played as well as they have all year.”

Can Notre Dame do it?

Freeman gave Mitch Jeter a vote of confidence this week after Notre Dame’s starting kicker missed a 48-yard field goal attempt against Army and also blocked a 30-yard attempt because the line wasn’t protecting. And that’s what Freeman should say, because there’s no point in questioning a player in a press conference.

But since Jeter suffered that groin injury against Stanford, there’s been little evidence to support Freeman’s confidence in the kicking game. Walk-on Eric Goins has replaced Jeter as the kickoff specialist without much issue. But field goals were an adventure Notre Dame found difficult to master. Split between Jeter and backups Zac Yoakam and Marcello Diomede, the Irish have made 3 of 10 field goals in the last five games.

And even the brands don’t inspire much trust.

Jeter scored from 28 yards against Florida State. Yoakam scored from 32 yards against Navy and 42 yards against Georgia Tech. That means the yard limit at which Notre Dame believes it can score a field goal is the opponent’s 25 yards, which likely impacts how Freeman would run the game.

“Mitch Jeter was always our best option,” Freeman said. “(Last) week he hit the ball better than he has in a long time. The one he missed…he hit the ball really well and from a yard line we couldn’t do before.”

Jeter is just 6 of 11 field goals this season after missing just two attempts in his career at South Carolina. The transfer drilled two 46-yard throws in the season opener at Texas A&M before knocking down both attempts a week later against Northern Illinois.

forecast

Historically, there is no reason to believe Notre Dame will defeat USC on Saturday afternoon at the Coliseum. The Irish have a 3-7 record in their last 10 trips there, with each of those wins coming by single digits against Trojans teams that average six losses. This USC team looks a lot like the ones Notre Dame beat when Clay Helton or Lane Kiffin was in charge. The difference is that this Irish team is playing at a different level. Notre Dame has the highest point differential in the country and has been the leader in offensive and defensive rating since October 1st. This quality of play should be enough for Notre Dame to finish the regular season with at least some breathing room.

Notre Dame 28, USC 13.

(Top photo of Riley Leonard and Jeremiyah Love: Robin Alam / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)