Can Trump’s Energy Policy Lower Gas Prices?

Many voters who supported President-elect Donald Trump said they were dissatisfied with the cost of living, and gas prices have been a big part of that over the past four years.

Drivers haven’t been shy about voicing their frustration over gas prices.

“Four years ago I was paying $2.27 a gallon for gas. Today I pay $3.86,” said one driver.

After peaking at $5 a gallon in June 2022, gas prices have fallen and stabilized as U.S. oil production returns to record highs. On the Monday before Election Day, a gallon averaged $3.06.

During his campaign, Trump promised to cut energy prices by at least half within a year of taking office.

“To achieve this rapid reduction in energy costs, I will declare a national emergency so we can dramatically increase energy production,” Trump said. “You know what we’re going to do. We’re going to drill, baby, drill.”

GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says it’s not that simple.

“The president can declare a state of emergency. That doesn’t mean the oil companies will respond,” said De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “There are still a lot of opportunities for oil companies to increase production, and so I don’t think it’s very realistic that the president can really do much to cut energy prices in half.”

ExxonMobil’s CEO had this to say about Trump’s promise: “Drill, baby, drill.”

“I’m not sure what those guidelines actually are,” Darren Woods said. “We are looking for the most economical levels of investment to produce the oil and generate returns for our shareholders.”

Republican presidents generally tend to be friendlier to oil and gas companies through deregulation, but as De Haan and other experts point out, it can take years to see differences in such policy changes. What could have a more immediate impact on supplies would be stricter enforcement of oil sanctions against Iran.

“Even if the president-elect decides to withdraw Iranian oil production from the world market, there is a possibility that other countries, including OPEC and Saudi Arabia, will do the same,” De Haan said.

Global oil markets may move prices at your local pump, but that doesn’t stop incoming President Trump from insisting that his leadership can drive them down.

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