Champions League: How many points do you need? | News

Monaco arrive in north London on Wednesday for a big Champions League game with both teams hoping for a victory that would take them a big step towards a place in the round of 16 of the new-look competition.

Only goal difference separates us from the Ligue 1 giants heading into Gameweek 6. Both have ten points from their first five games, enough to secure a coveted top eight spot in the 36-team table.

And these places could prove crucial in the final start of the season. The Elite Eight not only receives a bye to the round of 16 and avoids two additional play-off round games involving the clubs ranked ninth to 24th, but also receives home advantage in the second legs of these encounters in March.

The benefits of retaining a place in the top eight are huge, but the question remains: how many points would be enough to secure one?

At the start of the season, Opta decided to find an answer to this. They used their supercomputer to simulate the league phase games 50,000 times to see how many points were needed to get into the top eight and even the top 24.

And there is good news for us and also for Monaco. Opta found that in 99% of their simulations, teams with 10 points made it to the play-off round. This means that if their calculations are correct, both we and Monaco will be at the Emirates Stadium on Wednesday safe in the knowledge that their European adventures will continue in the spring.

Fortunately, nine points proved sufficient in 69% of simulations, meaning we can now apparently concentrate on securing a priceless place in the top eight – and Opta has one goal in mind.

After their 50,000 simulations, they assume that 16 points will be enough. This total resulted in qualification in 98% of the scenarios, while in 73% of the simulations 15 points were enough for eighth place. Meanwhile, 14 points was enough in just 28% of the supercomputer’s simulations, so 15 seems to be the magic number to aim for.

If we already have 10 in the bag, that would mean we have two wins in our last three games against Monaco. Dinamo Zagreb and Girona would take us to the round of 16, giving us two midweeks off to watch the action on TV and taking us one step closer to our goal of grabbing the most coveted piece of silverware in European football.