College Football Picks for Week 14: Notre Dame-USC is on a long list of playoff behemoths

A team is trying to win the ninth game of the regular season for the first time since 2007 and unlock the door to the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida on New Year’s Day.

The other is to get to 5-7, grab a reason to celebrate and maybe, just maybe, sneak into the postseason when college football ends up having more bowl slots than bowl-eligible teams . It’s happened before and (almost certainly won’t) happen again, because the glut of bowls has never been more silly as the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams has made everything else a sideshow.

That’s about as hard as you can sell a matchup No. 23 Illinois (-7½) in Northwestern (11 a.m., BTN) faces a Saturday with numerous playoff implications. This game — at Wrigley Field, a fun place — offers zero in that regard.

Let’s get to the point quickly and then move on to a thick slate of games whose results will dominate the playoff discussion for days.

The Wildcats have won seven of the last nine games in the series, although the Illini won – by wide margins – in 2021 and 2022. The Illini are clearly the better team, but you never know when the Cats, who won 37-10 at Maryland, will show up. If the Cats start fast, they have a chance to pull off an upset. But I’m going with the Illini, 27-17.

OTHER SELECTIONS OF WEEK 14

All games are Saturday.

Michigan (+20) at No. 2 Ohio State (11 a.m., Fox 32): No. 1 Oregon is locked in the Big Ten championship game. The Buckeyes will join the Ducks as long as they end a three-game losing streak against the Wolverines, which seems as certain as Woody Hayes’ old barber nabbing the Clippers’ No. 2 sides and backs. OSU, 38-10.

No. 8 Tennessee (-10½) at Vanderbilt (11 a.m., ABC 7): Vandy beat Alabama, pushed Texas to the brink in a three-point loss, took Missouri to double overtime and won at both Kentucky and Auburn. Does that sound like a pushover to you? My goodness, how the football-loving Commodores would love to knock Tennessee out of the playoffs. However, Vols survive a one-score game and reach the final 12.

Maryland (+24½) at No. 4 Penn State (2:30 p.m., BTN): If something crazy happens and Ohio State loses to Michigan, the Nittany Lions can advance to the Big Ten title game with a win. Worst-case scenario: The Nits get upset by the Terrapins and end up in the playoff bubble. Nissen, 35-14.

No. 5 Notre Dame (-7½) at USC (2:30 p.m., CBS 2, 780-AM): These Trojans have disappointed overall, but they have beaten LSU, taken Penn State to overtime and won three of their last four games. Can Notre Dame – which will be eliminated from the playoffs with one loss – dominate them physically on the line of scrimmage? That’s what it boils down to here. Irish, 27-17.

No. 6 Miami (-10½) at Syracuse (2:30 p.m., ESPN): SMU is in the ACC title game. Miami will be the opponent with another win; If it loses, Clemson takes action. All of this continues to rest on the shoulders of Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward, who is still alive to win my first-place Heisman Trophy vote. Sticks, 34-30.

Auburn (+11½) at No. 13 Alabama (2:30 p.m., ABC 7): It’s still a mystery that Alabama – after a miserable 24-3 loss at Oklahoma – could miss a 12-team playoff, but that will happen without anyone else’s help. The Iron Bowl hasn’t played as well as Auburn in Tuscaloosa since 2010, when Cam Newton was at his best. Roll Tide, 24-13.

No. 16 Arizona State (-9) at Arizona (2:30 p.m., Fox 32): The Sun Devils advance to the Big 12 title game with a win, meaning the door is open to an automatic first-round playoff bye. The Wildcats have been a dud, but the Territorial Cup requires them to give it their all – and if they do, there’s potential for an upset here. Time to crush ASU’s dream, 38-35.

Purdue (+29) at No. 10 Indiana (6 p.m., FS1): Everyone can just stop disrespecting the Hoosiers’ schedule, OK? Or don’t stop. Either way, they’ll make the playoffs as long as they reclaim the Old Oaken Bucket from the Boilermakers, the worst team in the Big Ten. IU ends a three-game losing streak 41-14.

No. 3 Texas (-5½) at No. 20 Texas A&M (6:30 p.m., ABC 7): Even though the Longhorns’ 10-1 record looks a lot nicer than the Aggies’ 8-3 mark, this renewal of a great old rivalry comes with a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia at stake. Unlike the Aggies, the Longhorns are in the playoffs either way. Texas, 26-20 in overtime.

No. 24 Kansas State (+2½) at No. 18 Iowa State (6:30 p.m., Fox 32): Like Arizona State, ISU advances to the Big 12 title game with a win. Winning both this game and that game is the only path to the playoffs. ISU, 24-17.

Houston (+13) at No. 19 BYU (9:15 p.m., ESPN): BYU enters Saturday also alive for a Big 12 title as well and can do it with a loss at Arizona State and a win against the Cougars. Do you think what we think? This game is Cougars vs. Cougars. The BYU Models, 34-17.

Last week: 5:1 straight, 3:3 against the spread.

Previous season: 57-24 straight up, 38-42-1 against the spread.