College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: What will the committee do with Alabama and Miami?

The College Football Playoff field is mostly full. The bubble isn’t very big, but the central debate heading into the conference championship games seems clear: Will the committee choose to put Alabama in the game with three losses ahead of Miami with two losses – or even SMU if the Mustangs win the ACC lose? Title game against Clemson?

And if SMU loses, could three-loss SEC teams South Carolina and Ole Miss also be in the conversation?

No. 6 Miami missed its ACC title chances and chance at a bye after losing 42-38 at Syracuse, its second loss in three games. The 10-2 Hurricanes could get a top-25 win if Louisville gets into this week’s rankings, but that would be their only good win. No. 9 SMU should be safe at 11-1, but the lack of precedent for conference title game losers could make the Ponies nervous about falling.

Meanwhile, 9-3 Alabama, ranked No. 13 last week, has victories over Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri, as well as a road win over LSU, which is no longer in the top 25 but finished 8-4.

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The committee hasn’t picked power conference teams with more losses over those with fewer losses very often, but it has happened. How far behind Miami falls will be one of the big questions when the penultimate rankings are released on Tuesday.

And the Crimson Tide’s history, while not part of the criteria, tends to be a factor when the selection committee refers to the “eye test.” Just like last year, the committee faces a choice between Alabama and an ACC team with a better record. It decided Alabama was better last year, albeit against a Florida State team that lost its starting quarterback to injury. Will it be the same decision again?

Each week, Bubble Watch examines who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle ahead of the first 12 College Football Playoffs. It is a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The top five ranked conference champions automatically receive a spot in the playoffs. Here you can find the bracket projections of Austin Mock’s model.

Definitely in there

The undefeated Ducks are definitely in the mix and will be the No. 1 overall seed if they beat Penn State. They could lose 59-0, like Wisconsin did to Ohio State in 2014 in their first-ever Big Ten title game, and it still wouldn’t matter.

Texas defeated rival Texas A&M in dominant fashion on Saturday to reach the SEC title in its first year in the league. The Longhorns will no doubt be in the field and can earn a first-round bye by avenging their only loss to Georgia.

Ohio State’s loss to Michigan sent No. 4 Penn State into the Big Ten title game for the first time since 2016 and second time ever, and the Nittany Lions face a win-or-lose decision. If they beat Oregon, they have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick. If Texas loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, a win would certainly put Penn State at No. 1.

The Irish are out of conference so can’t earn a bye, but will host a first-round playoff game after rattling off 10 straight wins – almost all of them dominant – following the loss to Northern Illinois.

The Volunteers recovered from an early 14-0 deficit to beat Vanderbilt, and their regular season is over. They won’t play again until the first weekend of the playoffs and will likely host a first-round game.

The Buckeyes will be by far the most fearful of any team in the playoff field. A fourth straight loss to Michigan cost them an appearance in the Big Ten title game and the opportunity to play against Oregon for the right to a first-round bye. The Buckeyes will still be in the field and could likely host a first-round game, but will most likely be on the road to open the 12-team event.

The Hoosiers appeared unfazed after their loss to Ohio State, defeating rival Purdue 66-0 and capturing the Old Oaken Bucket, the most lopsided result in the rivalry’s more than century-long history. The 11-1 Hoosiers won’t play again until the playoffs and were No. 10 in the rankings last week. They’ll probably be on their way to opening up, but there’s no longer any way for them to fall out of the bracket.

Probably in

We don’t know how the committee will treat conference title game losers, especially those who suffer a third loss. Texas is 11-1 both ways. It’s very likely that Georgia would take a loss and earn the bye with another win over Texas, but the Bulldogs needed a dramatic comeback and eight overtimes to beat Georgia Tech. An ugly loss to Texas would raise serious questions for the committee about Kirby Smart’s team’s candidacy.

The 11-1 Mustangs would get a nice boost if Louisville were to break back into the CFP top 25 after a 41-14 win over Kentucky. If not, SMU will not earn a Top 25 win and would be 11-2 with a loss to Clemson in the ACC title game. Could a unilateral loss bring with it the possibility of exclusion? The bubble teams are cheering for the Ponies in Charlotte, NC to keep Clemson from a bid.

Can play his way in

Tulane’s loss on Thanksgiving night essentially eliminated the AAC from playoff contention. Both Boise State and UNLV are ranked, and the winner of Friday’s Mountain West title game will advance to the playoffs as the highest-seeded Group of 5 champion. Boise State, ranked No. 11 last week and ahead of Big 12 title game finalists Iowa State and Arizona State, has a chance to earn a first-round bye. However, it is almost certain that the Broncos would not receive an overall offer if they lost to the Rebels.

Neither the Sun Devils nor the Cyclones can make the playoffs as overall contenders, but both were in the top 20 last week, and a big win or loss at Boise State could put them ahead of the Broncos and secure a No. 1 seed. farewell. The chances are good, but it is possible. Whatever the case, the Big 12 title game in Arlington, Texas, is a play-in game for the CFP in every sense of the word.

Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord tweeted “You’re welcome” to Clemson on Saturday. Orange coach Fran Brown even FaceTimed Dabo Swinney to say the same thing. It’s accurate. Syracuse rallied from a 21-0 deficit to beat Miami, clearing the way for Clemson to get on the field with a win over SMU, although the Tigers suffered a third loss to rival South Carolina. The Tigers don’t have a win against a top-25 opponent this year, but that won’t matter. The ACC champion will be in the field and Clemson will have a chance to claim that crown for the eighth time since 2015.

I still hope

Bama had big wins, but suffered losses to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, as well as Tennessee. It ended with a win over Auburn, while Miami lost in two of its last three games to Georgia Tech and Syracuse.

No major chaos is possible before conference championship weekend, but the Gamecocks and Rebels are in first place as the field expands beyond Alabama, SMU and Miami. It’s a fascinating debate.

South Carolina has won six straight games, half of them against teams ranked in the top 25. The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country. But they have three defeats. And one of them came at home with a 24-point lead over an Ole Miss team that has only one Top 25 win. That one win came by 18 points against Georgia, which is playing for the SEC title.

Coaches have already started politicizing for pole position if enough teams come forward and bring them into the conversation.

“It’s hard for me to sit there and say we’re not one of the top 12 teams in the country,” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said after the win over Clemson.

⁦@CFBPlayoff⁩ pic.twitter.com/U39OUZrOmM

— Lane Kiffin (@Lane_Kiffin) December 1, 2024

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said: “South Carolina skipping us? Why do we even play the games? We have the same record in the same conference. We went to them and drove them out.”

If it comes down to it, good luck clarifying it, committee.