College Football Winners and Losers: 8 Teams Can Be Very Confident About Their Playoff Hopes

The murky picture of the College Football Playoff is slowly becoming clearer.

Week 14 was followed by a chaotic Week 13 with more craziness. No. 2 Ohio State lost 13-10 to Michigan as a 19.5-point favorite, while No. 6 Miami blew a 21-point lead against Syracuse for its second loss in three weeks.

From our perspective, at least eight teams can feel very confident about their playoff hopes heading into conference championship weekend, while the other four spots can be filled by teams that win their conference title games.

Miami is now the biggest CFP wild card player.

Here’s a look at how we see the playoff contenders after the conclusion of the 2024 regular season.

In

• Oregon (12-0)

• Texas (11-1)

• Penn State (11-1)

• Notre Dame (11-1)

• SMU (11-1)

• Indiana (11-1)

• Ohio State (10-2)

• Tennessee (10-2)

Let’s start with the obvious: Oregon is the only undefeated team at the highest level of college football and could lose by 42 points to Penn State in the Big Ten title game and still be safely in the field. Penn State, meanwhile, secured a spot in the conference championship thanks to Ohio State’s loss to Michigan.

The Buckeyes are not playing for the conference title, but are still 10-2 on the field. It’s hard to imagine Ohio State falling higher than No. 8 after Saturday’s loss. The same goes for Tennessee after the Vols’ win over Vanderbilt. UT isn’t playing for a conference title next week, but with a 10-2 win over Alabama, the Volunteers feel good about their chances.

Notre Dame effectively secured its spot in the playoffs with a win over USC to go 11-1. Indiana has the same record after defeating Purdue. We’re more optimistic about Indiana’s chances than most simply because of the chaos that has unfolded in college football over the last two weekends. Given the rest of the CFB landscape, there is no way the committee is leaving out a power conference team with a single loss.

SMU can clinch a top-four spot with a win over Clemson in the ACC title game, and a loss shouldn’t put the Mustangs at too much of a disadvantage. It’s very hard to see SMU out of the playoffs.

Texas survived a mistake-filled second half against Texas A&M to clinch a spot in the SEC title game against Georgia. Even if the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns again in a week, Texas should be in the postseason.

With a win in it

We’re pretty confident that Georgia will be in the playoffs no matter what happens in Atlanta a week from now. But the Bulldogs are here because we don’t yet fully understand the committee’s thinking. If there are two losses in Miami and three losses in Georgia, is it guaranteed that the committee will pick Georgia?

Clemson lost its third game of the season against South Carolina on Saturday. The Tigers will only make the playoffs if they beat SMU.

Boise State and UNLV will compete for the Mountain West title. If the Broncos win, they have a great chance at the No. 4 seed. If UNLV wins, it might be a No. 12 seed, but it will be in the playoffs.

Arizona State secured a spot in the Big 12 title game with a stunning win over rival Arizona. The Sun Devils will play either Iowa State or Colorado for the Big 12’s spot in the playoffs. Iowa State defeated Kansas State Saturday night and will be in play when BYU beats Houston late Saturday night. If BYU loses, Colorado will play Arizona State for the conference title.

At the fence

If SMU beats Clemson, the Hurricanes may be the last team in the field. Miami could have landed in the top division with a win over Syracuse on Saturday, but the Hurricanes blew a 21-0 first-half lead in a 42-38 loss. The loss is Miami’s second in its last three games and means they will have to look at the ACC title game and every other conference title game and hope for favorable results.

Living by a prayer

• Alabama (9-3)

• Ole Miss (9-3)

• South Carolina (9-3)

It is extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which one of the three SEC teams makes the playoffs with three losses. All three teams won to end the regular season, but their only hope is to jump to the top of that line and hope the committee gets past Miami while SMU beats Clemson. That seems very, very unlikely. The only way we see a three-loss team make the playoffs is with a conference championship.

Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers.

winner

Michigan: How much does a win over Ohio State gloss over a disappointing season for the Wolverines? Michigan is just the second reigning national champion in five decades not to win at least eight regular-season games, but Wolverines fans will be elated for weeks after a 13-10 win over Ohio State on Saturday. The win dropped Ohio State coach Ryan Day’s record against Michigan to 1-4 and gave Michigan coach Sherrone Moore two wins in two seasons against the Buckeyes after he was Michigan’s interim coach a season ago.

Baylor: What a turnaround for the Bears. Baylor was 2-4 after a 43-21 loss to Iowa State, and it was worth wondering if coach Dave Aranda would return for the 2025 season. Well, Baylor finished the regular season on a six-game winning streak and capped it off with a 45-17 win over a hot Kansas team on Saturday. Sawyer Robertson completed 23 of 31 passes for 310 yards and four touchdowns. Bryson Washington ran 28 times for 192 yards and two scores, while Dawson Pendergrass had 11 carries for 104 yards.

Duke: What a first season in Durham for Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils scored 20 straight points in the second half en route to a 23-17 victory over Wake Forest. Duke won the game on the final play of the game when Maalik Murphy hit Jordan Moore for a 39-yard touchdown as time expired.

The Blue Devils finished the season with three straight wins after a 22-point loss to Miami to finish in a four-way tie with Syracuse, Louisville and Georgia Tech for fourth place in the ACC.

South Carolina: The Gamecocks are coming off a loss to Alabama without qualifying for the College Football Playoff. It was a fantastic season in Columbia as South Carolina capped a 9-3 season with a 17-14 win over Clemson on Saturday. LaNorris Sellers made an incredible leap during the 2024 season, scoring two scores en route to 166 yards on 16 carries against the Tigers.

Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights secured a successful season with a 41-14 win at Michigan State. The win also denied the Spartans a berth in the bowl, as Rutgers scored 34 straight points after Michigan State took a 7-0 lead. Rutgers’ loss to Illinois in Week 13 could have been extremely demoralizing, but instead the team benefited from three Spartans turnovers and losses and will have a winning record in three consecutive seasons for the first time since George W. Bush’s second term.

loser

North Carolina: The Tar Heels didn’t give Mack Brown a victorious sendoff. NC State was eligible to play on Saturday with a 35-30 win at North Carolina when a commotion broke out on the field after the game when NC State players tried to raise a flag at midfield like Michigan did earlier in the day had tried.

UNC fumbled twice and committed nine penalties as it trailed 22-10 in the fourth quarter. The game-winning score came with 25 seconds left when Hollywood Smothers scored his second touchdown of the game.

North Carolina finishes the season 6-6 and it is unclear whether Brown, who was fired this week, will coach in the bowl game.

Tulane: The Green Wave entered the final week of the season with a chance to reach the College Football Playoff and host the AAC title game against Army. Instead, Tulane’s playoff hopes are gone and the team heads to Thanksgiving against Army on Friday thanks to a 34-24 home loss to Memphis.

Tulane turned the ball over three times – including on a Mario Williams fumble after a deep completion in the second half – and had just 15 first downs to Memphis’ 26. The Tigers ran 46 times for 242 yards, while Mario Anderson ran for 24 runs 177 had yards and a score. Memphis finished the season 10-2, but missed the AAC title game as both losses came in conference play.

UAB: It was a brutal end to the season for the Blazers. UAB had a chance to beat Charlotte on the final play of the game, but Jonah Delange missed a 35-yard field goal as time expired. However, a personal foul penalty gave him another chance. And this also made the step eight meters shorter. By now you know where we’re going with this. The second kick wasn’t good either and Charlotte won 29-27. UAB finished the season 3-9 and is now 7-17 in the Trent Dilfer era.

West Virginia: It’s not clear how safe Neal Brown is at West Virginia with Jimbo Fisher looking for work, and it’s hard to see how Saturday’s 52-15 loss at Texas Tech will help Brown’s cause. WVU won three of its last five games to qualify for the bowl but was dominated on Saturday. Tech had 569 yards of offense and was 9 of 12 on third down. The Mountaineers also turned the ball over three times.