Colts playoff chances: How Indianapolis can beat the Denver Broncos in the AFC wild card race

The Colts are 6-7 after Week 13 of the 2024 NFL season, two games and a head-to-head tiebreaker behind the Texans (8-5) in the AFC South division race. However, they now have a fighting chance to reach the AFC playoffs as the third wild card team.

Indianapolis almost lost like the Dolphins (5-7) and Bengals (4-8) in Week 13 and were eliminated from the playoffs, but thanks to Anthony Richardson’s passes and runs in the red zone, Indianapolis stayed alive to end the fourth Quarter comeback and won a thrilling 25:24 battle in the final seconds.

Here’s a breakdown of Indianapolis’ chances of getting back in the mix with five weeks to go.

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The Colts’ current playoff picture

The Colts are the No. 8 team in the AFC, a half game ahead of the Dolphins and 1.5 games ahead of the Bengals.

With the Ravens (8-4) and Chargers (8-4) strong at No. 5 and No. 6, respectively, it comes down to No. 7, held by the Broncos (7-5). ). Indianapolis is hoping Cleveland upsets Denver on Monday night to cut the lead to one game. If the Broncos win and go up by two games, the Colts would still have a chance as both teams still have four games left.

MORE: Why Colts trusted Anthony Richardson on the game-winning 2-point conversion

The Colts’ remaining schedule

The Colts and Broncos both have a bye in Week 14 to prepare for last month’s stretch run. Here’s a look at Indianapolis’ last four games:

• Week 15: at Broncos, December 15
• Week 16: vs. Titans, December 22nd
• Week 17: at Giants, December 29th
• Week 18: vs. Jaguars, January 5

The Colts get their head-to-head opportunity against the Broncos in Week 15, meaning they can control the wild card race if the Broncos lose to the Browns on Monday night and fall to 7-6. If both teams are tied at 7-7 after this game, the Colts would win the direct tiebreaker.

Winning in Denver won’t be easy, but if Indianapolis overcomes that hurdle, it has a very favorable schedule against three bad teams. If the Colts win, they have a great chance because that includes a win against the Broncos.

The Broncos, along with the Colts, still have to face the two teams ahead of them in the AFC West, the Chargers and Chiefs. They also have the bigger trap game and play at the Bengals in Week 17.

The Colts’ playoff chances

Indianapolis needs a little help, but if it finishes 3-1 (including a win over Denver) or 4-0, it has a real chance, from 60 to 100 percent. But if the Colts go 2-2 or worse — regardless of whether they beat the Broncos in Week 15 — they would have almost a zero percent chance of making the playoffs.